The Asian Development Bank yesterday cut its growth forecast next year for the region’s developing economies to 7.6 percent, citing tighter credit and soaring food and energy costs.
The bank trimmed its previous growth forecast from April of 7.8 percent, and said actual growth could be lower if either inflation or the US economic slowdown were worse than expected.
It maintained its growth forecast this year for the region at 7.6 percent, with China set to dip below five years of double-digit growth to 9.9 percent this year and 9.7 percent next year.
However, it sharply raised its inflation forecast for East Asia to 6.3 percent this year, from 5.1 percent in its April outlook. Inflation averaged 3.9 percent in East Asia last year. Vietnam would be the worst off with 19.4 percent inflation this year and 10.2 percent next year.
The bank urged a “more decisive tightening of monetary policies” to fight the scourge of inflation and prevent it eating away the fruits of speedy economic growth.
It said many governments were “behind the curve” on the issue and warned the inflation problem was deepening.
“The risk of inaction is rising, and the region’s monetary authorities need to formulate more forceful and preemptive policy responses,” the ADB said.
While economic growth in developing Asia in the first three months of the year was stronger than expected, it eased in the second quarter as slower growth in industrialized nations began to bite, the bank said.
Growth in the industrialized economies of Hong Kong, South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan would slow to 4.7 percent this year amid weaker demand for their exports, before recovering to 4.9 percent next year, the bank said.
Aggregate economic growth in the other large economies of the ASEAN should ease to 5.5 percent this year, with prospects in Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines moderating, it said.
The region’s developing nations should weather the storm “relatively well,” the ADB said, adding that central bankers were faced with a dilemma in trying to keep inflation in check without depressing the economy.
“Rapidly rising inflation threatens to dampen consumer spending and risks a wage-price spiral that could derail the region’s recent solid growth,” the bank said.
DISCONTENT: The CCP finds positive content about the lives of the Chinese living in Taiwan threatening, as such video could upset people in China, an expert said Chinese spouses of Taiwanese who make videos about their lives in Taiwan have been facing online threats from people in China, a source said yesterday. Some young Chinese spouses of Taiwanese make videos about their lives in Taiwan, often speaking favorably about their living conditions in the nation compared with those in China, the source said. However, the videos have caught the attention of Chinese officials, causing the spouses to come under attack by Beijing’s cyberarmy, they said. “People have been messing with the YouTube channels of these Chinese spouses and have been harassing their family members back in China,”
The Central Weather Administration (CWA) yesterday said there are four weather systems in the western Pacific, with one likely to strengthen into a tropical storm and pose a threat to Taiwan. The nascent tropical storm would be named Usagi and would be the fourth storm in the western Pacific at the moment, along with Typhoon Yinxing and tropical storms Toraji and Manyi, the CWA said. It would be the first time that four tropical cyclones exist simultaneously in November, it added. Records from the meteorology agency showed that three tropical cyclones existed concurrently in January in 1968, 1991 and 1992.
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‘SOMETHING SPECIAL’: Donald Trump vowed to reward his supporters, while President William Lai said he was confident the Taiwan-US partnership would continue Donald Trump was elected the 47th president of the US early yesterday morning, an extraordinary comeback for a former president who was convicted of felony charges and survived two assassination attempts. With a win in Wisconsin, Trump cleared the 270 electoral votes needed to clinch the presidency. As of press time last night, The Associated Press had Trump on 277 electoral college votes to 224 for US Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic Party’s nominee, with Alaska, Arizona, Maine, Michigan and Nevada yet to finalize results. He had 71,289,216 votes nationwide, or 51 percent, while Harris had 66,360,324 (47.5 percent). “We’ve been through so
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