Vietnam’s economy, until recently a darling of foreign investors, has overheated and may be sliding into a boom-and-bust cycle that could require IMF-style assistance, analysts say.
The economy widely hailed last year as Asia’s next tiger has been battered by double-digit inflation, a ballooning trade gap, a tanked stock market and worries about the currency and banking sector.
Credit rating agencies Standard & Poor’s, Fitch and Moody’s and several investment banks have revised downward their outlooks for Vietnam at a time when the specter of a US recession could spell global trouble.
PHOTO: AFP
Aseambankers Research said: “The worst-case scenario would be for Vietnam to suffer massive capital flight, triggering a balance of payment crisis and forcing the country to go to the International Monetary Fund for help.”
Analyst Adam Le Mesurier wrote for consultancy DSG Asia that “an ‘IMF-program- style’ policy response will be needed within six months,” including monetary and fiscal tightening and a dong currency devaluation.”
Many investors and donors in Vietnam remain upbeat about the market of 86 million, pointing to strong exports — including food and oil — investment inflows, growing tourism and the potential of its young workforce.
“It’s too easy to get excited and claim that Vietnam has gone from poster child to problem child,” EU chief country representative Sean Doyle said. “But I’m not sure it’s very wise and very balanced ... Vietnam, if it can keep steady, stick with the right policies, will be attractive.”
Nonetheless, the turnaround in investor perception has been stunning.
Communist Vietnam’s entry into the WTO last year fuelled enthusiasm for the low-wage “mini-China,” bringing an influx of foreign cash.
Domestic investors gambled on a sky-rocketing stock exchange, the government went on a spending spree and banks lent freely, fuelling rapid credit growth.
The wheels started to come off about half a year ago, when inflation hit double digits as the economy tried to digest US$6 billion in foreign direct investment (FDI) disbursed last year, or 8.4 percent of GDP.
Since the start of the year, prices have galloped, driven by global food and energy costs, to 25 percent year-on-year inflation last month. Wage demands sparked 300 labor strikes in the first quarter alone.
“The wage-price spiral that appears to be beginning, if it becomes embedded, could make matters much worse,” said an HSBC report that predicted a rise to 30 percent inflation amid hoarding of commodities.
Another alarm bell sounded when surging imports drove the trade deficit to US$14.4 billion last month, compared to US$12 billion for all of last year.
The stock market has tumbled amid tighter credit and falling investor confidence, turning from the world’s best to worst performing bourse. Last week it crashed below 400 points, from its high of over 1,100 last March.
Many investors have bought gold or offloaded value-losing dong for greenbacks, briefly sending the black market rate in Vietnam to 18,500 to the dollar last week, against the official rate of around 16,000.
Standard Chartered Bank said recently that the “Vietnamese dong has come under downward pressure, and such pressure is likely to persist until solid improvement is seen in the trade balance.”
Some observers now fear a banking crisis amid tighter liquidity, depositor-flight and non-performing loans.
“Urgent action is required in the financial sector,” said Michael Pease, chairman of the Vietnam Business Forum. “Vulnerability of some financial institutions threatens not just the domestic financial sector but also the confidence of foreign investors.”
Vietnam’s government — which has adopted a fight-inflation-first strategy and pledged other economic fixes — has lowered its economic growth target for this year to 7 percent from last year’s blistering 8.5 percent.
IMF country chief Benedict Bingham has suggested Vietnam cool its “overheated” economy with higher interest rates and public spending cuts, freeing up of the exchange rate and accelerated reforms of its state-owned enterprises.
While Bingham said the IMF was “encouraged” by government plans to fix the economy, he called for “a concrete and convincing policy package that will bolster investor confidence and restore macroeconomic stability.”
AIR DEFENSE: The Norwegian missile system has proved highly effective in Ukraine in its war against Russia, and the US has recommended it for Taiwan, an expert said The Norwegian Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS) Taiwan ordered from the US would be installed in strategically important positions in Taipei and New Taipei City to guard the region, the Ministry of National Defense said in statement yesterday. The air defense system would be deployed in Taipei’s Songshan District (松山) and New Taipei City’s Tamsui District (淡水), the ministry said, adding that the systems could be delivered as soon as the end of this year. The US Defense Security Cooperation Agency has previously said that three NASAMS would be sold to Taiwan. The weapons are part of the 17th US arms sale to
SERIOUS ALLEGATIONS: The suspects formed spy networks and paramilitary groups to kill government officials during a possible Chinese invasion, prosecutors said Prosecutors have indicted seven retired military officers, members of the Rehabilitation Alliance Party, for allegedly obtaining funds from China, and forming paramilitary groups and assassination squads in Taiwan to collaborate with Chinese troops in a possible war. The suspects contravened the National Security Act (國家安全法) by taking photos and drawing maps of key radar stations, missile installations and the American Institute in Taiwan’s headquarters in Taipei, prosecutors said. They allegedly prepared to collaborate with China during a possible invasion of Taiwan, prosecutors said. Retired military officer Chu Hung-i (屈宏義), 62, a Republic of China Army Academy graduate, went to China
INSURRECTION: The NSB said it found evidence the CCP was seeking snipers in Taiwan to target members of the military and foreign organizations in the event of an invasion The number of Chinese spies prosecuted in Taiwan has grown threefold over a four-year period, the National Security Bureau (NSB) said in a report released yesterday. In 2021 and 2022, 16 and 10 spies were prosecuted respectively, but that number grew to 64 last year, it said, adding that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) was working with gangs in Taiwan to develop a network of armed spies. Spies in Taiwan have on behalf of the CCP used a variety of channels and methods to infiltrate all sectors of the country, and recruited Taiwanese to cooperate in developing organizations and obtaining sensitive information
BREAKTHROUGH: The US is making chips on par in yield and quality with Taiwan, despite people saying that it could not happen, the official said Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC, 台積電) has begun producing advanced 4-nanometer (nm) chips for US customers in Arizona, US Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo said, a milestone in the semiconductor efforts of the administration of US President Joe Biden. In November last year, the commerce department finalized a US$6.6 billion grant to TSMC’s US unit for semiconductor production in Phoenix, Arizona. “For the first time ever in our country’s history, we are making leading edge 4-nanometer chips on American soil, American workers — on par in yield and quality with Taiwan,” Raimondo said, adding that production had begun in recent
RSS