Like the tides, the wave of good feelings that swept over Wall Street and Main Street with the Federal Reserve's big interest rate cut could ebb just as quickly.
Homeowners opening up statements for their adjustable-rate mortgages come next month will experience a jolt when the rates jump, but not as severe a jolt as it could have been.
And, Wall Street's mood swings -- reflecting bouts of panic and then some relief -- are expected to linger.
That is because the Fed's action, while perhaps providing some help, will not cure problems in the ailing housing market, which are still expected to drag well into next year.
It will take time for builders to work off a glut of unsold homes. That means the housing slump will continue to hold back the economy and probably lead to more job cuts in construction, manufacturing and other industries.
The Fed's action also won't stop home foreclosures and late mortgage payments from rising in the months ahead.
In a bold move, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues on Tuesday sliced a key interest rate by half a percentage point to 4.75 percent. It was the first rate cut in more than four years.
Their aim is to prevent the economy from being thrown into a recession by a housing meltdown and a credit crunch. Lower rates should induce people and businesses to boost spending and investing, which would help energize economic activity.
Wall Street investors were cheered by the move, sending the Dow Jones industrial average zooming 335.97 points. It was the Dow's biggest one-day point jump in nearly five years.
Over the short term, the rate cut can provide an important psychological boost. It could make investors, businesses and others less inclined to clamp down or make drastic changes in their behavior that would hurt the economy.
"This does not heal the financial markets, but it can help in the process of healing. But we're not there yet," said Ken Mayland, economist at ClearView Economics.
The improved mind set, though, could turn out to be fleeting.
"I think the honeymoon is going to be pretty short for the euphoria of this Fed cut," said Greg McBride, senior financial analyst for Bankrate.com. "A half-point cut can only do so much. It doesn't transform the housing market into sunshine and daffodils."
The housing market is suffering through its worst slump in 16 years. Home sales are expected to keep on sagging. Home prices, which saw double-digit gains in many areas during the boom, have cooled off significantly. Affordability is still an issue for would-be home buyers, experts say.
Pain will continue to be felt by borrowers, lenders and investors of "subprime" mortgages -- higher-risk loans made to people with spotty credit or with low incomes.
Analysts estimate that 2 million adjustable-rate mortgages will jump from very low initial teaser rates to higher rates this year and next. Steep prepayment penalties have made it difficult for some to get out of their mortgages. Some overstretched homeowners can't afford to refinance or even sell their homes.
The Fed's action does provide a bit of relief. For owners facing a reset on Oct. 1, their new rate will rise to 6.75 percent, versus 7.50 if it had reset a few months earlier, McBride said.
"The payment is still going up by hundreds of dollars a month. So people are not going to feel warm and fuzzy," he said.
For consumers, whose confidence has been rattled by the housing and credit problems, much turns on whether employment conditions continue to deteriorate.
The economy lost 4,000 jobs last month, the first decline in four years. The unemployment rate, now at 4.6 percent, is expected to climb close to 5 percent by the end of the year. A softening job market eventually will probably mean slower wage growth.
Howard Chernick, economic professor at Hunter College, doesn't think the Fed's rate cut will make people rush to the malls.
"Consumer spending is influenced by employment and wages," Chernick said. "Aside from the euphoria some might now feel, I don't think there is going to be a big effect."
It will take months for the Fed's rate cut to ripple through the economy, with the hope that it will bolster activity.
Analysts expect the economy to slow to a rate of about 2 percent in the current quarter. That would be just half the pace of the previous three months.
AIR DEFENSE: The Norwegian missile system has proved highly effective in Ukraine in its war against Russia, and the US has recommended it for Taiwan, an expert said The Norwegian Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS) Taiwan ordered from the US would be installed in strategically important positions in Taipei and New Taipei City to guard the region, the Ministry of National Defense said in statement yesterday. The air defense system would be deployed in Taipei’s Songshan District (松山) and New Taipei City’s Tamsui District (淡水), the ministry said, adding that the systems could be delivered as soon as the end of this year. The US Defense Security Cooperation Agency has previously said that three NASAMS would be sold to Taiwan. The weapons are part of the 17th US arms sale to
SERIOUS ALLEGATIONS: The suspects formed spy networks and paramilitary groups to kill government officials during a possible Chinese invasion, prosecutors said Prosecutors have indicted seven retired military officers, members of the Rehabilitation Alliance Party, for allegedly obtaining funds from China, and forming paramilitary groups and assassination squads in Taiwan to collaborate with Chinese troops in a possible war. The suspects contravened the National Security Act (國家安全法) by taking photos and drawing maps of key radar stations, missile installations and the American Institute in Taiwan’s headquarters in Taipei, prosecutors said. They allegedly prepared to collaborate with China during a possible invasion of Taiwan, prosecutors said. Retired military officer Chu Hung-i (屈宏義), 62, a Republic of China Army Academy graduate, went to China
INSURRECTION: The NSB said it found evidence the CCP was seeking snipers in Taiwan to target members of the military and foreign organizations in the event of an invasion The number of Chinese spies prosecuted in Taiwan has grown threefold over a four-year period, the National Security Bureau (NSB) said in a report released yesterday. In 2021 and 2022, 16 and 10 spies were prosecuted respectively, but that number grew to 64 last year, it said, adding that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) was working with gangs in Taiwan to develop a network of armed spies. Spies in Taiwan have on behalf of the CCP used a variety of channels and methods to infiltrate all sectors of the country, and recruited Taiwanese to cooperate in developing organizations and obtaining sensitive information
BREAKTHROUGH: The US is making chips on par in yield and quality with Taiwan, despite people saying that it could not happen, the official said Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC, 台積電) has begun producing advanced 4-nanometer (nm) chips for US customers in Arizona, US Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo said, a milestone in the semiconductor efforts of the administration of US President Joe Biden. In November last year, the commerce department finalized a US$6.6 billion grant to TSMC’s US unit for semiconductor production in Phoenix, Arizona. “For the first time ever in our country’s history, we are making leading edge 4-nanometer chips on American soil, American workers — on par in yield and quality with Taiwan,” Raimondo said, adding that production had begun in recent