Is Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte’s love affair with China coming to an end?
Duterte has twice in the past week lashed out at his nation’s largest trading partner, urging China to “rethink” and “temper its behavior” in the South China Sea.
They mark some of the strongest statements since his 2016 pivot toward Beijing away from the US.
The shift came as polls showed his personal popularity slipping due in part to concerns that China’s assertiveness over disputed territory is undermining Philippine sovereignty.
While Duterte has repeatedly touted China’s financial help as a key reason for pivoting away from the US and Europe, much of the US$24 billion in investments Beijing had promised has yet to materialize.
“I figure someone in his Cabinet may be telling him to try at least to put up appearances that he is not a Chinese lapdog,” said Joseph Franco, a research fellow at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore.
Even for Duterte, it is a radical about-face from his comments about Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) during a visit to China in March.
“I simply love Xi Jinping,” Duterte said. “More than anybody else at this time of our national life, I need China.”
In a speech in Davao City on Thursday night before naval forces of eastern Mindanao, Duterte read excerpts from a letter signed by US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, US Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross and US Secretary of Defense James Mattis reaffirming the nations’ alliance and offering help on key defense and security procurement.
“I have nothing against America,” Duterte said after reading the letter. “I need attack helicopters and small planes for the counterinsurgency.”
Voters have never warmed to Duterte’s shift away from the US and have remained opposed to China’s South China Sea stance.
Almost nine in 10 voters said they wanted the Philippines to assert its claims in the sea, according to a Social Weather Stations survey of 1,200 voters conducted over the last weekend in June.
Satisfaction with Duterte among those who disagree with the government’s approach on Chinese intrusion is 44 percent, the poll showed.
The same poll found that 65 percent of voters were satisfied with Duterte’s performance, down five points, bringing his overall satisfaction to a new personal low of 45.
Duterte has been open about the difficulties of governing, saying last week that he was so tired that he was even thinking of quitting.
“His sky-high popularity is heading back to earth. Inflation is climbing relentlessly. His war on drugs cannot be won, and his federalism campaign is floundering — no wonder he is talking about how lonely he is as president,” said Malcolm Cook, a senior fellow at Singapore’s Institute of Southeast Asian Studies Yusof Ishak Institute.
Still, whether Duterte will keep raising the pressure on China to curry favor with voters remains to be seen, given his past behavior.
One area where he could see progress is if he can strike a deal on joint energy exploration in disputed areas that is favorable to the Philippines.
Philippine Secretary of Foreign Affairs Alan Peter Cayetano earlier this month told reporters that he was optimistic a framework would be completed by the end of this month.
“I wouldn’t put it past him to make a turnaround, even on such a core policy,” Mercator Institute for China Studies research associate Thomas S Eder said by telephone. “Duterte needs something from China to help him sell his foreign policy to the Filipino public. He needs a win.”
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