Myanmar’s junta has not yet fixed the dates for elections next year, but the opposition is already debating whether to boycott them and lose all influence or take part in what critics say is a sham.
The military regime forced through a new Constitution last year — just days after Cyclone Nargis devastated the country leaving 138,000 people dead — under which the first national polls for 20 years will be held.
But so far the conditions are acceptable only to the junta. Critics say the sole aim of the elections is to legitimize the generals’ grip on power and entrench their proxies in parliament.
Aung San Suu Kyi, the head of the National League for Democracy (NLD), the main opposition party, has just had her house arrest extended past the end of next year, keeping her out of the picture for the polls.
The NLD, which celebrated its 21st anniversary yesterday, won the country’s last elections in 1990, but the military refused to recognize the results.
More than 2,200 other political prisoners are languishing in jail.
Rights groups meanwhile say the new Constitution discriminates against ethnic minorities, many of which have faced renewed offensives by the military in recent months in an apparent attempt to crush them ahead of the polls.
But despite this context, the respected International Crisis Group (ICG) said last month that the elections could still help open up the political situation in Myanmar.
“The Constitution may inadvertently provide the tools to open up a little space as the post-Than Shwe era grows closer,” the Brussels-based group said in a report, referring to the 76-year-old head of the regime.
“A boycott could play into the hands of the military government, since it would not prevent the election from going ahead and would mainly deprive non-government candidates of votes, potentially narrowing the range of voices in future legislatures,” the ICG report said.
Win Min, an activist and academic in the northern Thai city of Chiang Mai, said he too believed the military may have to give some ground.
“They are trying to control as much as they can but there is a little chance that they might not control 100 percent,” Win Min said.
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