One of Afghanistan’s safest areas, the region around Herat, risks falling prey to increased violence as troops flood in to try to quell the Taliban-led insurgency, NATO officers and diplomats say.
The western region, relatively rich by Afghan standards, has become NATO’s “great unknown” as approaching elections bring new uncertainty about the Taliban’s intentions, alliance documents said.
Squeezed by the arrival of some 17,000 troops in the south, the insurgents, backed by al-Qaeda and criminal gangs, have begun moving north toward Herat along routes sometimes used by opium smugglers to ship their loads to Iran.
“The Taliban, when they are under pressure, they escape. They can escape in two main directions, south toward Pakistan and north towards us,” said Italian General Rosario Castellano, head of the NATO-led contingent in Herat.
Castellano commands some 3,900 international troops, but they watch over an area around half the size of Italy, leaving swathes of land with no military presence whatsoever.
Part of it, the province of Farah — with a largely Pashtun population, like the Taliban — borders Helmand, where opium poppy cultivation has flourished and provides funds to groups determined to undermine the weak central government.
“We think that a lot of them are going to Farah right now,” US Colonel Gregg Julian said. “But they’re going to fight hard for Kandahar and Helmand, because the majority of their poppy crop and their drug funding for the insurgency comes from that area. They’re not going to give up easily.”
Officials and military personnel were uneasy about the lack of insurgent violence when Afghans registered a few months back for the presidential and provincial elections on Aug. 20.
Some suspect this may have been because the Taliban want to try to establish some political legitimacy. Others have said the fighters wanted to secure identity cards handed out during registration that would allow them to move around more easily.
But it is unclear how the insurgents will react on polling day, by which time thousands of additional troops will have deployed to ensure the smooth running of an election considered a stern test of NATO’s efforts to foster democracy.
“We are concerned of course,” one European diplomat said.
For those keen on a show of force, “it is their big moment. There will be a lot of international attention on the country, so if you want to make a mess of it, it’s a good time,” the diplomat said.
Another great unknown for NATO is the attitude of Iran, which like many of Afghanistan’s neighbors is being courted by the West to help bring stability.
Iran’s influence around Herat is undeniable, and diplomats and officers say that Iran tolerates and even aids the Taliban, allowing fighters to rest on its territory or permitting small arms to flow across the roughly 450km of border in the region.
“They allow training in Iran,” an officer with the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force said. “There is evidence of some small arms going to the insurgency. But it hasn’t breached a threshold of heavy weapons.”
Iran — where a significant number of people suffer from drug addiction exacerbated by Afghan poppies — has meanwhile used the expulsion of illegal immigrants from over the border as a means to pressure Kabul.
“Cyclically, Iran tries to push over more people for political reasons,” one European military officer said.
Military estimates suggest some 3,000 Afghans illegally enter Iran each day.
Iran’s influence, the unpredictability of the Taliban as troops move into their southern heartland and the pressure-cooker atmosphere of elections have combined to dampen the optimism of Western officials in this region.
“Most observers expect a worsening of the security situation in the province,” the European diplomat said. “We remain prudent.”
DITCH TACTICS: Kenyan officers were on their way to rescue Haitian police stuck in a ditch suspected to have been deliberately dug by Haitian gang members A Kenyan policeman deployed in Haiti has gone missing after violent gangs attacked a group of officers on a rescue mission, a UN-backed multinational security mission said in a statement yesterday. The Kenyan officers on Tuesday were on their way to rescue Haitian police stuck in a ditch “suspected to have been deliberately dug by gangs,” the statement said, adding that “specialized teams have been deployed” to search for the missing officer. Local media outlets in Haiti reported that the officer had been killed and videos of a lifeless man clothed in Kenyan uniform were shared on social media. Gang violence has left
US Vice President J.D. Vance on Friday accused Denmark of not having done enough to protect Greenland, when he visited the strategically placed and resource-rich Danish territory coveted by US President Donald Trump. Vance made his comment during a trip to the Pituffik Space Base in northwestern Greenland, a visit viewed by Copenhagen and Nuuk as a provocation. “Our message to Denmark is very simple: You have not done a good job by the people of Greenland,” Vance told a news conference. “You have under-invested in the people of Greenland, and you have under-invested in the security architecture of this
A fire caused by a burst gas pipe yesterday spread to several homes and sent a fireball soaring into the sky outside Malaysia’s largest city, injuring more than 100 people. The towering inferno near a gas station in Putra Heights outside Kuala Lumpur was visible for kilometers and lasted for several hours. It happened during a public holiday as Muslims, who are the majority in Malaysia, celebrate the second day of Eid al-Fitr. National oil company Petronas said the fire started at one of its gas pipelines at 8:10am and the affected pipeline was later isolated. Disaster management officials said shutting the
Japan unveiled a plan on Thursday to evacuate around 120,000 residents and tourists from its southern islets near Taiwan within six days in the event of an “emergency”. The plan was put together as “the security situation surrounding our nation grows severe” and with an “emergency” in mind, the government’s crisis management office said. Exactly what that emergency might be was left unspecified in the plan but it envisages the evacuation of around 120,000 people in five Japanese islets close to Taiwan. China claims Taiwan as part of its territory and has stepped up military pressure in recent years, including