When North Korea elects a new legislature tomorrow, outside observers of the secretive nation will be watching for one name: Kim Jong-un, the 26-year-old some believe will be tapped to lead after his father’s death.
Speculation about a successor has been mounting since the 67-year-old leader Kim Jong-il reportedly had a stroke last August.
Recent moves to consolidate his circle of advisers hint he may be setting the stage to hand power to the next generation of the world’s first communist dynasty. If Kim Jong-un joins the legislature tomorrow, it would be a strong sign he is being groomed to take over.
“It would be the first step for Kim Jong-un to inherit power from his father,” said Song Young-sun, a South Korean lawmaker and North Korea expert. “He needs a basis for the North Korean people to revere him before he can move on to higher posts.”
Since members of North Korea’s 687-seat Supreme People’s Assembly typically serve as key party, government and military officials, tomorrow’s election could also give hints of any shake-up in the power structure as the regime faces international pressure to give up its nuclear program and stop developing ballistic missiles.
“It will be interesting to see the results of the ... elections on Sunday,” said analyst Daniel Pinkston of the International Crisis Group, a think tank. “They certainly aren’t free and fair, but we should be able to see some shifts in personnel — who’s in and who’s out in the party.”
Koh Yu-hwan, a North Korea expert at Dongguk University in Seoul, said he expected “new elites” to emerge.
Elections in the country of 24 million people are largely a formality. Polls are held every five years, with only one candidate — hand-picked by the ruling Workers’ Party — running in each constituency.
The election was scheduled for August of last year, around the time of Kim’s reported stroke. North Korea postponed the election, without giving a reason.
Six months later, Kim appears to have recovered. In an open letter to the nation, he announced last month that he would stand again for election, joining soldiers, workers, farmers and intellectuals as candidates, state-run media said on Thursday.
There was no mention of Kim’s son. But South Korea’s Yonhap news agency said Kim Jong-un has been tapped as Kim’s successor and will run tomorrow. Japan’s Mainichi newspaper carried a similar report, citing an internal North Korean military memo.
The South Korean National Intelligence Service said it could not confirm the reports but called a father-to-son succession possible, noting no sign of opposition from top party and military officials.
Recent dispatches in North Korea’s media have emphasized “bloodline” and “inheritance,” possible references to what would be a second hereditary succession. Current leader Kim Jong-il was preceded by his father, Kim Il-sung, the founder of North Korea.
For some time, Kim Jong-il’s late companion Ko Yong-hi, mother to his two younger sons, has been referred to as “Respected Mother” — a phrase seen as a hint North Korea is paving the way for one of her sons to take power.
Little is known about Kim Jong-un, the youngest of three sons Kim Jong-il is known to have fathered.
He studied at the International School of Berne in Switzerland until 1998 under the pseudonym Pak-chol, learning to speak English, German and French, the Swiss weekly news magazine L’Hebdo reported on Thursday, citing classmates and school officials.
A classmate recalled him as timid and introverted but an avid skier and basketball player who was a big fan of American star Michael Jordan. He was humble and friendly with the children of US diplomats, a former school director said. A car arrived every day after school to pick him up, the report said.
A Japanese man who claims to know Jong-un from his years as Kim Jong-il’s sushi chef said the son looked and acted just like his father and was the leader’s favorite. In contrast, Kim often derided the middle son, Jong-chul, as “girlish,” Kenji Fujimoto said in a 2003 memoir.
The eldest son, 37-year-old Jong-nam, had been assumed the heir apparent but fell out of favor after being caught using a fake Dominican passport to get to Tokyo Disneyland in 2001.
Jong-un is believed to have the strongest leadership qualities among the three, said analyst Cheong Seong-chang, rating him as “highly likely” to succeed his father.
Brian Myers, a professor at Dongseo University in Busan, dismissed the speculation as gossip.
“We should not pay too much attention to the succession issue, because it does not make very much difference who takes over,” he said. “The more important thing is the ideology that they all share.”
Even if Jong-un’s name appears when results come out on Monday, it might not be him. In 1998 and 2003, a “Kim Jong-nam” on the candidate list turned out to be another party faithful with the same name as the eldest son.
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