As US President Barack Obama prepares to send troops to war for the first time as commander-in-chief, a new report says a “game-changing” strategy is urgently needed in Afghanistan to save the faltering international campaign.
“All is not lost in Afghanistan,” RAND Corp experts said in a paper scheduled to be released yesterday by the congressionally funded United States Institute of Peace.
“But urgent measures — what might be called ‘game-changing steps’ — are now needed to stem an increasingly violent insurgency,” said authors Seth Jones and C. Christine Fair.
Taliban insurgents have regained ground in Afghanistan and the Obama administration is contemplating doubling troop levels as part of a strategy to reclaim control. Addressing the ongoing war there is one of the administration’s top priorities.
Obama has been reviewing several options for a troop build up that he and commanders want in Afghanistan. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates is to sign troop deployment orders after he gets a nod from Obama.
White House press secretary Robert Gibbs said on Monday that Obama would make the decision shortly about how many additional troops to send to Afghanistan.
“Without getting into broad timelines, I don’t think this is anything that involves weeks,” Gibbs said, underscoring that Obama’s move would come shortly.
Gibbs noted that US envoy Richard Holbrooke is in the region talking with leaders about how best to address the situation. Obama also has met with military leaders and his foreign policy advisers, both at the Defense and State departments.
An opponent of the “surge” of US forces that is now credited with turning around the Iraq War, Obama has taken a cautious approach to the addition of forces in Afghanistan. He is expected to initially approve only part of a military request for as many as 30,000 forces this year, while military and civilian advisers revamp US war goals.
The RAND report adds to the growing consensus among officials and private analysts that sending more troops to the now seven-year-old war will mean little without a new strategy.
RAND REPORT
It faults international donors for not delivering all the aid promised. It says strategies are splintered and some efforts have been counterproductive because nations working there don’t even agree on whether the biggest threat is al-Qaeda, the skyrocketing drug trade, or other issues.
The report says efforts to build a police force have been disappointing, and that work to disarm former combatants and militias is “all but moribund.” It notes that US intelligence indicates Afghan officials are involved in the drug trade; traffickers have bought off hundreds of police chiefs, judges and officials. It suggests the immediate firing of corrupt officials.
“The United States and its international allies must re-examine their core objectives in Afghanistan,” it said, adding that the first priority must be stopping the use of Afghanistan and Pakistan as a base for terrorist groups like al-Qaeda and the Taliban.
Officials also must stop hoping they can build a central Afghan government strong enough to keep order across Afghanistan, the report said.
It asserted that such a goal goes against the country’s history, and it recommended that tribes and local organizations must be fostered as well.
“It is unlikely the United States and NATO will defeat the Taliban and other insurgent groups in Afghanistan,” the report also said. So any additional troops sent should be used to mentor Afghan security forces on how to control the country themselves, it said.
UN TALLY
A new report by the UN released yesterday said the number of Afghan civilians killed in armed conflict rose 40 percent last year to a record 2,118 people.
The report said militants were responsible for 55 percent of the deaths, but that US, NATO and Afghan forces killed 829 civilians, or 39 percent.
The UN’s annual report on the protection of civilians noted that despite new battlefield rules meant to reduce civilian casualties, US, NATO and Afghan troops killed 31 percent more civilians last year than in 2007, when the UN said those forces killed 629 civilians.
The UN report said militants were responsible for 55 percent of civilian deaths last year, or 1,160. About 130 deaths couldn’t be accounted for because of issues such as crossfire.
CIVIC REPORT
A US-based group concerned for civilians in conflict said in a new report released yesterday that “the lack of a clear, coordinated strategy to address civilian losses has been a leading source of anger and resentment toward military forces” in Afghanistan.
“The international coalition in Afghanistan is losing public support, one fallen civilian at a time,” said CIVIC, or The Campaign for Innocent Victims in Conflict.
CIVIC urged the Pentagon to create a position to address civilian casualties, and it said the NATO-led force in Afghanistan should have a coordinated response to provide compensation payments to the families of victims.
In related news, US regional military chief General David Petraeus was discussing strengthening US supply lines for troops in Afghanistan during a trip to Uzbekistan yesterday, the US embassy in Tashkent said. Petraeus will meet Uzbek President Islam Karimov and other top officials to discuss Afghanistan, the embassy said.
The visit follows a decision this month by Kyrgyzstan to close a US air base used as a staging post for operations in Afghanistan.
Meanwhile, despite the renewed focus on Afghanistan, much of Obama’s schedule for the week is geared to the economy.
He was scheduled to sign the recently passed stimulus bill yestereday in Denver and then travel today to Phoenix, Arizona, where he was to outline plans for reversing the collapse of the housing market.
Obama also will make his first foreign trip, to Canada, this week.
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