The virus that causes AIDS could theoretically be eliminated in a decade if all people living in countries with high infection rates are regularly tested and treated, a new mathematical model showed.
It is an intriguing solution to end the AIDS epidemic. But it is based on assumptions rather than data and is riddled with logistical problems. The research was published online on Tuesday in the medical journal The Lancet.
“It’s quite a startling result,” said Charlie Gilks, an AIDS treatment expert at WHO and one of the paper’s authors. “In a relatively short amount of time, we could potentially knock the epidemic on its head.”
Gilks and colleagues used data from South Africa and Malawi. In their model, people were voluntarily tested each year and immediately given drugs if they tested positive for HIV, regardless of whether they were sick.
Within 10 years, HIV infections dropped by 95 percent. Other initiatives like safe sex education and male circumcision were also used.
The strategy would cut the estimated number of AIDS deaths between this year and 2050 by about half, from about 8.7 million to 3.9 million, leaving only sporadic HIV cases.
Experts think the strategy’s cost would peak at about US$3.4 billion a year, though expenses would fall after an initial investment.
“This is certainly beyond the bounds of the current infrastructure for many countries, but that is not a reason not to think big,” said Myron Cohen of the University of North Carolina who has done similar research. He was not involved in the WHO study.
Only 3 million people are currently on AIDS drugs. Nearly 7 million people are still awaiting treatment, and about 3 million more people were infected last year. Worldwide, WHO guesses that about 33 million people have HIV.
Increasing access to testing and drugs would stretch already weak health systems in Africa, which has most of the world’s HIV cases.
“This is not like giving someone a Tylenol,” said Jennifer Kates, director of HIV policy for the Kaiser Family Foundation in Washington.
Once people start AIDS drugs, they must continue indefinitely.
“The idea should be explored, but it’s a huge leap,” Kates said.
Handing out AIDS drugs to everyone who tests positive could also worsen drug resistance.
In addition, doctors don’t know if it’s safe to take AIDS drugs for decades; the oldest drug combinations have only been around for about a dozen years.
Other experts questioned whether the strategy might infringe on patient’s rights. Once people test positive for HIV, they would be advised to start treatment, even if they weren’t sick.
That would benefit the community, but not necessarily the patients themselves. AIDS drugs come with side effects including vomiting, liver failure and heart attacks.
WHO emphasized that the study findings do not signal a policy change.
“This is only a theoretical exercise,” said Kevin De Cock, director of WHO’s HIV/AIDS department.
He said WHO would hold a meeting next year to study the idea more closely.
POLITICAL PRISONERS VS DEPORTEES: Venezuela’s prosecutor’s office slammed the call by El Salvador’s leader, accusing him of crimes against humanity Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele on Sunday proposed carrying out a prisoner swap with Venezuela, suggesting he would exchange Venezuelan deportees from the US his government has kept imprisoned for what he called “political prisoners” in Venezuela. In a post on X, directed at Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, Bukele listed off a number of family members of high-level opposition figures in Venezuela, journalists and activists detained during the South American government’s electoral crackdown last year. “The only reason they are imprisoned is for having opposed you and your electoral fraud,” he wrote to Maduro. “However, I want to propose a humanitarian agreement that
ECONOMIC WORRIES: The ruling PAP faces voters amid concerns that the city-state faces the possibility of a recession and job losses amid Washington’s tariffs Singapore yesterday finalized contestants for its general election on Saturday next week, with the ruling People’s Action Party (PAP) fielding 32 new candidates in the biggest refresh of the party that has ruled the city-state since independence in 1965. The move follows a pledge by Singaporean Prime Minister Lawrence Wong (黃循財), who took office last year and assumed the PAP leadership, to “bring in new blood, new ideas and new energy” to steer the country of 6 million people. His latest shake-up beats that of predecessors Lee Hsien Loong (李顯龍) and Goh Chok Tong (吳作棟), who replaced 24 and 11 politicians respectively
Young women standing idly around a park in Tokyo’s west suggest that a giant statue of Godzilla is not the only attraction for a record number of foreign tourists. Their faces lit by the cold glow of their phones, the women lining Okubo Park are evidence that sex tourism has developed as a dark flipside to the bustling Kabukicho nightlife district. Increasing numbers of foreign men are flocking to the area after seeing videos on social media. One of the women said that the area near Kabukicho, where Godzilla rumbles and belches smoke atop a cinema, has become a “real
‘WATER WARFARE’: A Pakistani official called India’s suspension of a 65-year-old treaty on the sharing of waters from the Indus River ‘a cowardly, illegal move’ Pakistan yesterday canceled visas for Indian nationals, closed its airspace for all Indian-owned or operated airlines, and suspended all trade with India, including to and from any third country. The retaliatory measures follow India’s decision to suspend visas for Pakistani nationals in the aftermath of a deadly attack by shooters in Kashmir that killed 26 people, mostly tourists. The rare attack on civilians shocked and outraged India and prompted calls for action against their country’s archenemy, Pakistan. New Delhi did not publicly produce evidence connecting the attack to its neighbor, but said it had “cross-border” links to Pakistan. Pakistan denied any connection to