The virus that causes AIDS could theoretically be eliminated in a decade if all people living in countries with high infection rates are regularly tested and treated, a new mathematical model showed.
It is an intriguing solution to end the AIDS epidemic. But it is based on assumptions rather than data and is riddled with logistical problems. The research was published online on Tuesday in the medical journal The Lancet.
“It’s quite a startling result,” said Charlie Gilks, an AIDS treatment expert at WHO and one of the paper’s authors. “In a relatively short amount of time, we could potentially knock the epidemic on its head.”
Gilks and colleagues used data from South Africa and Malawi. In their model, people were voluntarily tested each year and immediately given drugs if they tested positive for HIV, regardless of whether they were sick.
Within 10 years, HIV infections dropped by 95 percent. Other initiatives like safe sex education and male circumcision were also used.
The strategy would cut the estimated number of AIDS deaths between this year and 2050 by about half, from about 8.7 million to 3.9 million, leaving only sporadic HIV cases.
Experts think the strategy’s cost would peak at about US$3.4 billion a year, though expenses would fall after an initial investment.
“This is certainly beyond the bounds of the current infrastructure for many countries, but that is not a reason not to think big,” said Myron Cohen of the University of North Carolina who has done similar research. He was not involved in the WHO study.
Only 3 million people are currently on AIDS drugs. Nearly 7 million people are still awaiting treatment, and about 3 million more people were infected last year. Worldwide, WHO guesses that about 33 million people have HIV.
Increasing access to testing and drugs would stretch already weak health systems in Africa, which has most of the world’s HIV cases.
“This is not like giving someone a Tylenol,” said Jennifer Kates, director of HIV policy for the Kaiser Family Foundation in Washington.
Once people start AIDS drugs, they must continue indefinitely.
“The idea should be explored, but it’s a huge leap,” Kates said.
Handing out AIDS drugs to everyone who tests positive could also worsen drug resistance.
In addition, doctors don’t know if it’s safe to take AIDS drugs for decades; the oldest drug combinations have only been around for about a dozen years.
Other experts questioned whether the strategy might infringe on patient’s rights. Once people test positive for HIV, they would be advised to start treatment, even if they weren’t sick.
That would benefit the community, but not necessarily the patients themselves. AIDS drugs come with side effects including vomiting, liver failure and heart attacks.
WHO emphasized that the study findings do not signal a policy change.
“This is only a theoretical exercise,” said Kevin De Cock, director of WHO’s HIV/AIDS department.
He said WHO would hold a meeting next year to study the idea more closely.
A fire caused by a burst gas pipe yesterday spread to several homes and sent a fireball soaring into the sky outside Malaysia’s largest city, injuring more than 100 people. The towering inferno near a gas station in Putra Heights outside Kuala Lumpur was visible for kilometers and lasted for several hours. It happened during a public holiday as Muslims, who are the majority in Malaysia, celebrate the second day of Eid al-Fitr. National oil company Petronas said the fire started at one of its gas pipelines at 8:10am and the affected pipeline was later isolated. Disaster management officials said shutting the
DITCH TACTICS: Kenyan officers were on their way to rescue Haitian police stuck in a ditch suspected to have been deliberately dug by Haitian gang members A Kenyan policeman deployed in Haiti has gone missing after violent gangs attacked a group of officers on a rescue mission, a UN-backed multinational security mission said in a statement yesterday. The Kenyan officers on Tuesday were on their way to rescue Haitian police stuck in a ditch “suspected to have been deliberately dug by gangs,” the statement said, adding that “specialized teams have been deployed” to search for the missing officer. Local media outlets in Haiti reported that the officer had been killed and videos of a lifeless man clothed in Kenyan uniform were shared on social media. Gang violence has left
US Vice President J.D. Vance on Friday accused Denmark of not having done enough to protect Greenland, when he visited the strategically placed and resource-rich Danish territory coveted by US President Donald Trump. Vance made his comment during a trip to the Pituffik Space Base in northwestern Greenland, a visit viewed by Copenhagen and Nuuk as a provocation. “Our message to Denmark is very simple: You have not done a good job by the people of Greenland,” Vance told a news conference. “You have under-invested in the people of Greenland, and you have under-invested in the security architecture of this
Japan unveiled a plan on Thursday to evacuate around 120,000 residents and tourists from its southern islets near Taiwan within six days in the event of an “emergency”. The plan was put together as “the security situation surrounding our nation grows severe” and with an “emergency” in mind, the government’s crisis management office said. Exactly what that emergency might be was left unspecified in the plan but it envisages the evacuation of around 120,000 people in five Japanese islets close to Taiwan. China claims Taiwan as part of its territory and has stepped up military pressure in recent years, including