Fri, Nov 07, 2008 page6

• US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: ANALYSIS: China gives Obama advice on Taiwan

  • AFP
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  China yesterday urged US president-elect Barack Obama to oppose independence for Taiwan, saying that the proper handling of the issue was key to good relations between Beijing and Washington.

  “We urge the United States to honor its commitment ... honor the one China policy and stop selling weapons to Taiwan,” foreign ministry spokesman Qin Gang (秦剛) said when asked to comment on US-China relations after Obama’s election win.

  “Judging from the development of bilateral relations in the past years, the Taiwan issue is the most sensitive issue,” he said.

  “We hope the US will properly handle this issue, adhere to the three communiques, adhere to the one-China principle and oppose Taiwan independence, so that our relations will develop in a smooth and stable way,” Qin said.

  Meanwhile, experts say China-US ties should remain steady under an Obama presidency, largely because of Washington’s need for cooperation on the global financial crisis from an increasingly powerful Beijing.

  Obama criticized Chinese trade policies during his campaign, but not in particularly strident terms. And with a myriad of other problems to face, including two wars and the US financial meltdown, his attention will be diverted from such concerns as China’s currency policy and its military build-up, analysts said.

  “It should be a very smooth transition. Obama is not a president who ran against China,” said professor David Zweig, an expert on Chinese foreign relations at Hong Kong University of Science and Technology.

  By contrast, he said, the campaigns of the past four US presidents, with the exception of former US president George H. W. Bush, all featured tough words for Beijing.

  “This could be the smoothest transition since 1980,” Zweig said.

  The need to coax China into global efforts to address the world financial crisis could force Obama to mute criticism on other issues, observers said.

  “Obama will not try to project China in negative terms,” said Bahukutumbi Raman, a fellow with India’s Chennai Centre for China Studies.

  “With the US facing a meltdown, China is much needed in terms of the financial and economic clout it can bring to bear on the crisis,” he said.

  China’s leaders are widely viewed as favoring Republican presidents over Democrats because of the perception that the latter’s ties to US unions make them more vocal about trade practices that impact on US jobs.

  The Bush administration has done little to dispel this belief.

  Although US President George W. Bush angered China by meeting the Dalai Lama last year and has criticized China’s control of its Christians, his administration has otherwise tended to tread lightly.

  Criticisms of China’s currency policy — which are seen as giving Chinese a competitive advantage — were relayed frequently but politely.

  And Bush, like some other world leaders, insisted on attending the Beijing Olympics opening ceremony, despite a harsh Chinese military crackdown in Tibet.

  China’s huge trade surplus with the US — which rose to US$25.3 billion in August, its highest point since October last year — will remain a thorn for Obama, but perhaps less so than in the past as global economic woes slow Chinese exports, Raman said.

  Beijing’s human rights record will also remain a source of friction, but Obama looks unlikely to let that derail the relationship, said Jerome Cohen, adjunct fellow at the US Council on Foreign Relations.

  “I expect that Obama will move closer to China sooner than most presidents have,” he said, adding that a visit to China was likely early in his administration.

  Certain Obama policies could also help foster ties, particularly his call for cuts in US greenhouse gas emissions, said Zhu Feng (朱楓), vice director of the Center for International and Strategic Studies at Peking University.

  Despite Chinese calls for developed nations to lead the way, Bush has resisted such cuts, and China could gain from a more cooperative approach by Obama, especially if it leads to transfers of environmental technologies.

  “These are the world’s two top emitters of greenhouse gases,” Zhu said. “Obama could leverage American power to influence China here in a really effective way. This could provide a new field in which to cooperate.”

  In the end, Obama must take heed of the fact that China today is stronger and more confident than when his predecessor took office eight years ago, Raman said.

  “I think relations could very well be better under Obama, but it doesn’t really matter who is president. You cannot be on China’s wrong side anymore,” he said.
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