Recent security improvements in Iraq are “fragile, reversible and uneven” and the country is still locked in a “communal struggle for power and resources,” a Pentagon report said on Tuesday.
The quarterly report to Congress detailed a dramatic 77 percent decline in violence compared with the same period last year and said progress has been made even as US forces have drawn down.
“However, they remain fragile, reversible, and uneven,” the report said.
It warned that a host of unresolved issues have the potential to upset progress.
Among them are the upcoming provincial elections, the integration of Sunni “Sons of Iraq” [SoI] into the security forces, the status of the northern oil-rich province of Kirkuk, and Iranian support for Shiite extremist groups.
“While security has improved dramatically, the fundamental character of the conflict in Iraq remains unchanged — a communal struggle for power and resources,” the report said.
It said there was a possibility that insurgent attacks could rise in the run-up to provincial elections if Sunnis perceive the Shiite-led government as hindering them.
Absorbing the so-called “Sons of Iraq,” the Sunni militias that turned against al-Qaeda, into the Iraqi security forces and into civilian jobs meanwhile has become “a significant challenge,” the report said.
“The slow pace of transition is a concern,” the report said. “Continued GoI [government of Iraq] commitment is required to ensure SoI are fully transitioned to permanent employment,” it said.
“Recent allegations of GoI targeting SoI leaders in Diyala Province are of concern if they are indicators of GoI reluctance to integrate SoI into the ISF or, more broadly, to reconcile a diverse province,” it said.
US forces have been paying salaries to the 98,000 members of the Sons of Iraq until now. But the government of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki was supposed to begin paying 54,000 of them yesterday.
The report singled out Iranian influence as “the most significant threat to long-term stability in Iraq.”
“Despite continued Iranian promises to the contrary, it appears clear that Iran continues to fund, train, arm, and direct SG [special groups] intent on destabilizing the situation in Iraq,” the report said.
It said Iranian support for the Shiite extremist groups “remains a [principal] reason for continued violence.”
But it said activity by Jaish al-Mahdi, the Shiite militia group led by radical cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, has “substantially reduced.”
“Motivated not only by the Iraqi people’s growing frustration with militia violence and criminal activity, but also by significant losses and recognition of Coalition and ISF tactical superiority, JAM fighters have, in large part, laid down their arms, and many of its leaders have fled to Iran,” the report said.
Al-Qaeda in Iraq, meanwhile, is under pressure after suffering substantial losses as a result of US and Iraqi operations, the report said.
It is still capable of conducting limited high profile attacks in urban areas and retains limited freedom of movement in rural areas, the report said.
But it has failed to rekindle a cycle of sectarian violence.
“During this reporting period, there were 29 ethno-sectarian deaths in Baghdad,” the report said.
“This is the lowest level on record, and a remarkable improvement in comparison to the more than 1,200 ethno-sectarian deaths in the same period last year and the more than 1,600 ethno-sectarian deaths that occurred in December 2006 alone,” it said.
The number of attacks using roadside bombs rose significantly from late March through mid-May but dropped again to pre-March levels, the report said.
“Since May, the numbers of IEDs and explosively formed penetrators have continued to decline,” the report said.
Meanwhile, the number of civilians killed in Iraq last month more than halved to 359 compared to a year ago, Iraqi government figures showed, and the number of US troops killed in action also fell dramatically.
US combat deaths fell to eight last month, down from 12 last month and vastly reduced from 43 in September last year, statistics from independent Web site www.icasualites.org showed.
Violence in Iraq has fallen to around four-year lows in recent months, but militants have still been capable of large-scale attacks.
A string of bombings last month targeted civilians shopping before their evening meal during the holy Muslim fasting month of Ramadan, and in Iraq’s north, where the US military says al-Qaeda is active, violent attacks are carried out almost daily.
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