It took years of talks, coddling and concessions to prod North Korea to step back from its decades-long effort to make atomic weapons, leading to Friday’s dramatic destruction of its nuclear reactor cooling tower.
That was the easy part.
Past experience suggests North Korea will seek more rewards before it moves further to disarm. Pyongyang will not hand over the nuclear bombs believed to be in its arsenal until a long list of demands is granted.
The North has shown a talent for brinkmanship, along with a mastery of playing countries against each other.
Hints of the problems to come emerged just hours after the reactor tower tumbled to the ground in a cloud of dust and smoke.
While praising the US for starting to remove sanctions, North Korea’s Foreign Ministry said it would watch whether the other sides from the arms talks meet their commitments.
“What is important in the days ahead is for the US to fundamentally drop its hostile policy toward the [North], a policy that compelled [North Korea] to have access to a nuclear deterrent,” the ministry said in a statement.
So far, the US and other countries have agreed to give the North the equivalent of 1 million tonnes of oil for disabling its main nuclear facility and providing a list of nuclear programs. The US is also moving to eliminate some sanctions against the regime.
The North has 45 days to agree on procedures to verify its declaration, the date by when the US plans to remove the country from a list of state sponsors of terrorism.
The next and far more complicated phase of the disarmament process is for North Korea to abandon and dismantle its nuclear weapons programs. So far, the other countries have not said what they will give the North in exchange for doing so.
For dismantling its reactor, the country is expected to demand a new reactor of a type it would use solely for generating electricity.
Under a 1994 disarmament deal with the US, the North was offered two reactors for power. But construction was abandoned in 2002 after the US accused Pyongyang of pursuing uranium enrichment.
The North still wants the reactors and won a concession in a 2005 agreement that other countries would talk “at an appropriate time” about a new reactor.
To end the nuclear threat, the US will want the North to hand over its bombs. But in exchange, North Korea will likely demand security guarantees from Washington and normal diplomatic relations.
The US technically remains at war with the North.
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