Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez would consolidate political power and no longer face term limits if Venezuelans approve sweeping constitutional changes yesterday in a contentious vote that has riven South America's top oil exporter.
An emboldened opposition and recent violent clashes involving protesters have raised fears that anger could spill into the streets if the vote is close, as some pollsters predict.
Chavez has warned opponents he will not tolerate attempts to stir up violence, and threatened to cut off oil exports to the US if Washington interferes. His country is a major supplier to the US, which in turn is the No. 1 buyer of Venezuelan oil.
PHOTO: AP
"In the case of an aggression by the United States government, we wouldn't send any more oil to that country," Chavez told reporters on Saturday. "Forget about our oil."
Chavez, who has become Latin America's most outspoken antagonist of Washington since he was first elected in 1998, calls the constitutional overhaul vital to making Venezuela a socialist state.
While the government touts polls showing Chavez ahead, other surveys cited by the opposition indicate strong resistance -- which would be a change for a leader who easily won re-election last year with 63 percent of the vote.
Pollster Luis Vicente Leon said tracking polls by his firm Datanalisis in the past week show the vote is too close to predict. Which side wins will depend largely on turnout among Chavez's supporters and opponents, he said.
"If he wins by a very small margin, that's a scenario filled with conflict," Leon said. "In a country where there are high levels of mistrust between the camps, it's obvious the opposition ... would think it was fraud."
In Washington, State Department spokesman Sean McCormack said the US hopes the referendum will be "a free and fair contest."
Speaking to reporters on Saturday, Chavez accused the US government of plotting to discredit what he says will be a legitimate victory for him at the polls.
"They are preparing to disavow the results, so we hope the popular will is respected, whatever it is," Chavez said. "The government of the United States is a threat."
Chavez thanked his ally Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega for recently "alerting the world to the plan [US President George W.] Bush's government has to kill the president of Venezuela." He didn't offer specifics but warned that any assassination attempt would lead to "events that aren't very good for the United States or for the world."
Chavez often makes such accusations, which US officials deny.
The socialist leader has sought to capitalize on his personal popularity ahead of the vote. He is seen by many supporters as a champion of the poor who has redistributed more oil wealth than any other leader in memory.
Many Chavez supporters say he needs more time in office to consolidate his unique brand of "21st century socialism," and they praise other proposed changes such as shortening the workday from eight hours to six, creating a social security fund for millions of informal laborers and promoting communal councils where residents decide how to spend government funds.
Tensions surged in recent weeks as university students led protests and occasionally clashed with police and Chavista groups. One man was shot dead on Monday while trying to get through a road blocked by protesters.
The opposition has called for close monitoring of an outcome they predict will be close.
Some 140,000 soldiers and reservists were being posted during the vote, the Defense Ministry said.
About 100 electoral observers from 39 countries in Latin America, Europe and the US will be on hand, plus hundreds of Venezuelan observers, according to the National Electoral Council.
Chavez, 53, says he will stay in power only as long as Venezuelans keep re-electing him -- and adds that might be for life.
"If God gives me life and help," Chavez told supporters on Friday, "I will be at the head of the government until 2050!" -- when he would be 95 years old.
Meanwhile, former US defense secretary Donald Rumsfeld warned yesterday that the constitutional referendum in Venezuela threatened to completely destroy the country's democracy and called Chavez an "aspiring despot."
"Today the people of Venezuela face a constitutional referendum, which, if passed, could obliterate the few remaining vestiges of Venezuelan democracy," Rumsfeld wrote in an essay published in the Washington Post.
Rumsfeld said the Venezuelan leader in fact is trying to dismantle Venezuela's Constitution, silence its independent media and confiscate private property.
Also, Venezuela will nationalize Spanish banks and expel the Spanish oil company Repsol if conservatives win power in Madrid in general elections in four months' time, Chavez said on Saturday.
He made the warning in a news conference in which he also softened slightly his stance against Spanish King Juan Carlos, who nettled him at a recent summit by telling him to "shut up."
"If Spain's conservatives, who continue to attack us, end up governing, then give me your banks, give me the bill," he said.
Asked about a threat he made at late on Friday about nationalizing Spanish banks if Juan Carlos did not apologize for his remark, Chavez backtracked.
"We don't want to worsen the situation with the Spanish government. It's possible there will be contact with it in the coming days," said the president, who has put bilateral relations "in the freezer."
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