As Russia wielded its energy weapon against Ukraine to devastating effect last week, China and Japan were wary observers, worrying that one day the same might happen to them, observers said.
Neither Asian power has ever felt entirely comfortable with the Kremlin, and its decision to drastically raise the price of the gas it sells to Ukraine has done nothing to boost their confidence in the Russian bear.
"To control a nation's energy is to control the nation's activities," said Hiroshi Watanabe, a Tokyo-based economist at the Daiwa Institute of Research.
"Russia seems to have lost some trust by making threats through a reduction of supplies," he said.
Unfortunately for both China and Japan, Russia has the world's largest natural gas reserves and is the second largest exporter of crude oil, making it too big an actor to be ignored in Asia's great energy game.
So the most the region's oil and gas guzzlers can do in reaction to the Russian-Ukrainian dispute is prevent over-reliance on the Kremlin.
"What you want to do is you want to continue to work with Russia, but you don't want to throw all your eggs in one basket," said David Zweig, an expert on Asian energy politics at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology.
Nowhere is the complexity of the tripolar relationship between Moscow, Beijing and Tokyo more in evidence than in Russia's plan to build a pipeline transporting Siberian oil to the Pacific coast.
Russia announced on Friday it expected to start construction this summer of the pipeline, which will cost an estimated US$15 billion to US$16 billion and have a capacity of 78 million tonnes a year.
When complete, it will run for 4,200km from Taishet in central Siberia to Perevoznaya Bay on the Pacific coast close to Russia's southeastern border with China.
Russia appears to have left it up in the air which of the two Asian economies gets first priority on the pipeline -- perhaps, observers said, in the hope of squeezing out the best possible deal.
On a visit to Tokyo in November Russian President Vladimir Putin repeatedly stressed Japan would get access to the oil.
But two months prior to that, he reportedly told Western visitors in the Kremlin that oil shipments from the pipeline would initially go to China.
Japan had offered to pick up half of the price tag for the project and in April warned that aid would be snapped off if the pipeline first serves China.
But last week Tokyo played down the Russia-Ukraine spat.
"There is no change in our policy of proceeding with the oil pipeline construction project with Russia in the aim of securing stable energy supplies," said an official at the Agency for Natural Resources and Energy.
China is not overly intimidated by Russia's poker play, and has even gone on the offensive.
"The Chinese have some tricks up their sleeves too," said Lim Tai Wei, a Japan Foundation fellow and an observer of China's quest for energy security.
"It was able to reach an oil deal with Kazakhstan, traditionally within the Russian sphere of influence, without Russian mediation," he said.
While claiming to be unfazed by Ukraine's woes, Japan appears to face considerable potential risks as it becomes more dependent on Russia.
One concern is that Russia might try to use energy as a bargaining chip in a 60-year-old dispute over four islands which Soviet troops seized in the closing days of World War II and Japan wants back.
China, by contrast, has no major outstanding issues with Russia, and even shares with Moscow an aversion to US dominance in global affairs, but that could change.
"It would not be unreasonable to argue that Russian moves in the Ukraine gas projects have unnerved Chinese observers," said Lim. "It could do the same to the Chinese in any rapid breakdown in relations."
Many Chinese are old enough to remember the early 1960s when China and the Soviet Union suddenly and unexpectedly split.
Soviet advisors withdrew completely from China's oil industry, leaving technology, management and training in a state of flux and China to face a hostile Soviet Union and an equally hostile embargo from the US.
But this painful historical experience counts for little against the fact that China today has the world's fastest growing major economy, and probably needs Russia even more than four decades ago.
also see story:
Ukraine's gas settlement: The wrong solution
Asian perspectives of the US have shifted from a country once perceived as a force of “moral legitimacy” to something akin to “a landlord seeking rent,” Singaporean Minister for Defence Ng Eng Hen (黃永宏) said on the sidelines of an international security meeting. Ng said in a round-table discussion at the Munich Security Conference in Germany that assumptions undertaken in the years after the end of World War II have fundamentally changed. One example is that from the time of former US president John F. Kennedy’s inaugural address more than 60 years ago, the image of the US was of a country
‘UNUSUAL EVENT’: The Australian defense minister said that the Chinese navy task group was entitled to be where it was, but Australia would be watching it closely The Australian and New Zealand militaries were monitoring three Chinese warships moving unusually far south along Australia’s east coast on an unknown mission, officials said yesterday. The Australian government a week ago said that the warships had traveled through Southeast Asia and the Coral Sea, and were approaching northeast Australia. Australian Minister for Defence Richard Marles yesterday said that the Chinese ships — the Hengyang naval frigate, the Zunyi cruiser and the Weishanhu replenishment vessel — were “off the east coast of Australia.” Defense officials did not respond to a request for comment on a Financial Times report that the task group from
BLIND COST CUTTING: A DOGE push to lay off 2,000 energy department workers resulted in hundreds of staff at a nuclear security agency being fired — then ‘unfired’ US President Donald Trump’s administration has halted the firings of hundreds of federal employees who were tasked with working on the nation’s nuclear weapons programs, in an about-face that has left workers confused and experts cautioning that the Department of Government Efficiency’s (DOGE’s) blind cost cutting would put communities at risk. Three US officials who spoke to The Associated Press said up to 350 employees at the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) were abruptly laid off late on Thursday, with some losing access to e-mail before they’d learned they were fired, only to try to enter their offices on Friday morning
CONFIDENT ON DEAL: ‘Ukraine wants a seat at the table, but wouldn’t the people of Ukraine have a say? It’s been a long time since an election, the US president said US President Donald Trump on Tuesday criticized Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and added that he was more confident of a deal to end the war after US-Russia talks. Trump increased pressure on Zelenskiy to hold elections and chided him for complaining about being frozen out of talks in Saudi Arabia. The US president also suggested that he could meet Russian President Vladimir Putin before the end of the month as Washington overhauls its stance toward Russia. “I’m very disappointed, I hear that they’re upset about not having a seat,” Trump told reporters at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida when asked about the Ukrainian