A grassroots Chinese campaign to deny Japan a permanent seat on the UN Security Council has gathered some 22 million signatures, increasing the chances that China will block Japan's bid to join the elite group, organizers and analysts said on Thursday.
The petition effort, conducted through popular Chinese Web sites, enjoys tacit support from the government, which has allowed state-controlled media to cover the campaign prominently.
Japan is expected to be among several nations granted permanent seats on a revamped Security Council under a plan that could come up for a vote in September. As one of the five current permanent members, China has the power to veto the proposal. It has not said how it plans to vote.
If China were to prevent Japan's elevation, it would be the most direct confrontation between Asia's leading powers since they re-established diplomatic ties in 1972.
Relations between the countries have sharply deteriorated in recent weeks, strained by competition for energy resources, disputes over the way history textbooks assess Japan's role in World War II, Japan's pledge to aid the US in defending Taiwan and the recent incursion of a Chinese submarine into Japanese waters.
By allowing millions of people to sign their names to a petition against Japan, Beijing's new leadership seems determined to show that recent Japanese actions have so inflamed popular sentiment that China has no choice but to adopt a tougher diplomatic line.
Officials may also see the petition as leverage to force concessions from Japan as the price of admission to the Security Council. It could also serve as cover for a veto, which would be one of the most bold assertions of Chinese authority in many years.
"China must vote no and not just abstain," said Tong Zeng, a longtime organizer of efforts to force Japan to recognize and apologize for World War II atrocities. "The government may not want to take the lead, but the Chinese people have taken the lead."
The effort to rally anti-Japan sentiment began in late February, when several overseas Web sites began circulating a petition directed at the UN, which is currently debating a blueprint for changing its governing structure. Some sites allow users to register their names through text messages sent from mobile phones.
After initially aiming to collect 1 million signatures, organizers now say they think they can gather 30 million before they present the petition to Secretary-General Kofi Annan.
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