As an outsider who relishes flouting convention, Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi is an unlikely candidate for making a lasting imprint on tradition-bound Japan.
Branded a "weirdo" when he was elected three years ago today, Koizumi wasted little time before he started snubbing political power brokers and ignoring party traditions, like divvying up Cabinet posts among veteran lawmakers.
PHOTO: AFP
Most wouldn't have gotten away with it. But by skillfully exploiting voter frustration with the status quo, Koizumi has managed to build one of Japan's longest-lasting and strongest governments in years. And he's also succeeded in changing his ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) -- not to mention Japan -- in ways few expected possible.
Today, Koizumi will mark the end of his third year as prime minister, a milestone only five of Japan's 26 postwar premiers have achieved before him.
"His ability to stay in power owes much to his political skill, to his ability to pilot his party," said Ikuo Kabashima, a professor of political science at Tokyo University.
"He's whipped up public support by vilifying the mainstream of his party. It would seem anyone could do this, but most LDP lawmakers can't," Kabashima said.
Some of the most dramatic changes wrought by Koizumi have been ones that appear to have dragged Japan perceptibly to the right. Take Japan's logistical support for US-led troops in the Indian Ocean as the coalition fights in Afghanistan. Or the dispatch of noncombat soldiers to Iraq.
Both measures broke new ground for Japan's military, which has been severely restricted by a public skeptical of military might and a pacifist constitution drafted by US occupiers after Japan's defeat in World War II.
"He's a different type of character -- for better or for worse -- and this has enabled him to implement such policies,'' said Masato Ushio, an assistant professor at Seigakuin University.
While not necessarily a major hawk himself, Koizumi's appointment of a conservative defense minister has given these measures momentum, Ushio said. The importance of close ties with the US to Koizumi has also helped this process, he said.
Other significant changes have been more subtle.
He's consolidated more decision-making under his office, partially neutralizing the special-interest politicians who have long dominated the LDP.
He's also grabbed the right to make his own Cabinet appointments, a privilege once shared by party power brokers.
What Koizumi hasn't done, however, is take a hatchet to certain heavily protected industries and public services to ignite an economic recovery that would lift Japan out of its decade-long slump.
While the economy has started to pick up, analysts say this is due to booming exports of digital electronics and land prices that have stopped falling.
Koizumi just happened to be lucky enough to be in office as this happened, said Junichi Makino, a senior economist at Daiwa Institute of Research.
"It has nothing to do with policy, but with economic cycles," Makino said.
"It would have been the same no matter who was in office," Makino said.
Makino credited Koizumi for vowing to eliminate wasteful spending and privatize the nation's bloated public highways and other public services. The impact of these pledges, however, has been purely psychological.
Critics have made much of the gap between Koizumi's fiery rhetoric about change and his take-it-slow approach to reform.
Kabashima, however, said this combination is precisely what makes voters happy. They realize Japan needs to change, but understand drastic reform would cause too much pain and might actually affect their own communities or jobs. This view is backed up by polls showing most voters are satisfied with the job Koizumi has done overall.
A survey by the Asahi newspaper last weekend showed 62 percent approved of Koizumi's performance over the past three years, and 73 percent want Koizumi to stay in office for at least another year.
Of course, there are potential stumbling blocks ahead. A poor performance by the LDP in critical upper house elections in July would force Koizumi to step down.
And the outcome of US presidential elections in the fall is also a concern -- because Koizumi has invested so much in pursuing close ties with US President George W. Bush, he could suffer if Bush loses.
Casualties to Japanese soldiers in Iraq could also damage his support so severely he could be forced to resign.
But without any serious rivals in the LDP or in the Democratic Party -- the main opposition bloc -- Koizumi's future looks secure.
"The public supports my reform program," Koizumi told Japanese media Thursday.
"It is my duty to put reform on a secure track," Koizumi said.
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