Tue, Dec 24, 2019 page3

• 2020 Elections Analysis: Parties in legislature weigh in on election prospects

  • By Lin Liang-sheng, Yang Chun-hui and Dennis Xie / Staff reporters, with staff writer
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  Officials from the four political parties that are represented in the Legislative Yuan have weighed in on the parties’ prospects of winning legislative seats in the Jan. 11 elections.

  The Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP) chances of winning more regional legislative seats have increased over the past three months, party sources said on Sunday, citing two controversies as catalysts.

  The first was the Chinese Nationalist Party’s (KMT) decision to place retired general Wu Sz-huai (吳斯懷) at No. 4 on its list of legislator-at-large nominees, despite criticism over his attendance of an event in Beijing in 2016 to celebrate the 150th anniversary of Republic of China founder Sun Yat-sen’s (孫逸仙) birth and standing for the Chinese national anthem, they said.

  

  Central Election Commission (CEC) Deputy Chairman Chen Chao-chien stands next to a notice announcing Jan. 11’s legislative election at the CEC in Taipei on Nov. 8.

  Photo courtesy of the Central Election Commission

  The second was KMT Legislator Chen Yu-jen (陳玉珍) sustaining “bruised fingers” during what DPP sources described as a political stunt that wasted healthcare resources.

  Chen was taken to the emergency room at National Taiwan University Hospital on Dec. 6 after her fingers were pinched in a door during a protest outside the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, where several KMT legislators and city councilors tried to force their way into the ministry compound to demand that Minister of Foreign Affairs Joseph Wu (吳釗燮) launch an investigation into the suicide last year of diplomat Su Chii-cherng (蘇啟誠), the then-director-general of the Osaka branch of the Taipei Economic and Cultural Office in Japan.

  The latest polls show that President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文), who is seeking re-election for the DPP, has also boosted the prospects of the party’s legislative candidates, the sources said, describing the situation as a “hen leading its chicks.”

  Tsai has a double-digit percentage point lead against Kaohsiung Mayor Han Kuo-yu (韓國瑜), the KMT’s presidential candidate, in several regions, which has boosted the party’s confidence of winning a legislative majority, they said.

  It is particularly important for Tsai to support the party’s legislative candidates in central and southern Taiwan, which used to be DPP strongholds, but became swing regions after Han’s election as Kaohsiung mayor last year, they said.

  Meanwhile, KMT sources said the approval ratings of the party’s presidential and legislative candidates early this month exceeded those of the DPP candidates in its internal polls.

  Taipei prosecutors’ indictment on Dec. 2 of Yang Hui-ju (楊蕙如) over alleged links to Su’s suicide played a role in the change, they said.

  Yang, a former campaign aide to Representative to Japan Frank Hsieh (謝長廷), is accused of hiring people to influence public opinion online, and attack or deride opponents.

  Yang allegedly directed an online campaign to defend Hsieh by accusing Su of dereliction of duty and failing to help Taiwanese stranded at Kansai Airport in Osaka when Typhoon Jebi hit Japan on Sept. 4 last year.

  The accusations stemmed from a fabricated report that the Chinese embassy in Japan sent buses to evacuate Chinese stranded at the airport. Although the report was later proven to be false, it sparked criticism of perceived inaction by the ministry.

  The Internet team allegedly called Su and other branch personnel “festering remnants of the party-state ruled by the KMT,” and wished death upon them, which some said might have contributed to Su committing suicide at his residence in Osaka eight days later.

  KMT Deputy Secretary-General Alex Tsai (蔡正元) on Sunday said that while winning 55 or 57 legislative seats to obtain a majority would be a challenge, the party would have no problems securing it by winning more than 50 seats.

  “The KMT will undoubtedly defeat the DPP in the legislative election — it is only a matter of by how much,” he said.

  The approval ratings for the KMT’s regional and at-large legislative nominees surpassed those of the DPP’s within a week of Yang’s indictment, Alex Tsai said.

  Many Internet users have condemned Yang’s behavior and expressed their disapproval of Joseph Wu’s response to the incident, he said, adding that the minister’s inaction would affect the vote results.

  In contrast, the DPP’s online campaign to recall Wu Sz-huai launched on Nov. 28 has garnered only one-third of the online reaction sparked by Yang’s indictment, Alex Tsai said.

  The KMT expects to win at least 13 at-large seats, depending on how many votes minor parties win, he said.

  The KMT expects the Taiwan People’s Party, founded by Taipei Mayor Ko Wen-je (柯文哲) in August, to be the only party to win at-large seats besides the KMT and the DPP, and its number of seats would affect the chances of the pan-blue and pan-green camps to obtain a majority, Alex Tsai added.

  The People First Party (PFP) on Sunday began a relay across Taiwan on electric scooters, with at-large nominees visiting social welfare facilities.

  PFP Organization Department director Chang Sho-wen (張碩文) said that PFP Chairman James Soong (宋楚瑜), its presidential candidate, and Hon Hai Precision Industry Co founder Terry Gou (郭台銘) would share the stage in a campaign rally when the scooters arrive in Taipei on Saturday.

  The PFP’s goal is to hold on to its three seats in the legislature and boost Soong’s approval rating above Han’s this week, as higher presidential approval ratings could benefit the prospects of the party’s at-large nominees, Chang Sho-wen said.

  Soong would seek to score points for the PFP in televised platform presentations and a presidential debate by highlighting that neither the KMT nor the DPP have won people’s hearts, despite separately being in government for many years, he added.

  New Power Party (NPP) Chairman Hsu Yung-ming (徐永明) estimated that the party might win one or two regional seats, and three at-large seats.

  Claire Wang (王婉諭), who is No. 3 on the party’s list of at-large nominees, should be in the safe range, he said.

  Wang, the mother of a girl known as “Little Light Bulb” (小燈泡), who was murdered at the age of four in Taipei in 2016, became a judicial reform advocate and has vowed to raise awareness of issues related to the judicial system, education and safety.

  However, more effort would be needed to keep NPP Legislator Huang Kuo-chang (黃國昌), No. 4 on the list, in the legislature, Hsu said.

  The party would launch a campaign 10 days before the elections to travel throughout Taiwan and tout Huang’s achievements, he said.

  The party is optimistic about winning four at-large seats, he added.

  Additional reporting by Hsieh Chun-lin and CNA
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