China senses it has failed to win over the hearts and minds of Taiwanese, despite Beijing’s economic clout and efforts to woo young talent, a former US government official said on Monday.
“You would think given trends in the region that mainland China would have reasons to be supremely confident,” said Thomas Christensen, former US deputy assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs from 2007 to 2008. “[But] they realize they have failed miserably in one persistent fashion, and it is that they have failed miserably to win over the hearts and minds of the Taiwan public, despite all the economic interaction, despite all the attraction of places like Shanghai.”
Christensen, who now teaches at Princeton University, was speaking at a seminar held by the Stimson Center in Washington to commemorate late expert in cross-strait relations Alan Romberg, who died in March.
At the seminar, Christensen said China has applied military, economic and diplomatic pressure against Taiwan, citing Beijing’s poaching of some of Taipei’s remaining diplomatic allies.
Four former allies — Sao Tome and Principe, Panama, the Dominican Republic and Burkina Faso — have switched recognition from Taipei to Beijing since President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) took office in May 2016.
Christensen said China has stubbornly refused to deal with Tsai’s government because of the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) refuses to recognize the so-called “1992 consensus.”
The consensus refers to a tacit agreement reached between the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and the Chinese Communist Party in 1992 that there is only “one China,” with each side having its own interpretation of what “China” means.
The DPP does not agree that such an agreement ever existed and it rejects the formula on the grounds that it implies Taiwan is part of China.
Christensen forecast that 2020 could be a difficult year for Taiwan because whether Tsai wins re-election or the KMT adjusts its cross-strait policy to try to win the election, either scenario would dismay Beijing.
He also raised concerns that Taiwan might not be fully prepared militarily to deter Beijing’s potential use of force.
Steve Goldstein, an associate of Harvard University’s Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies and director of the Taiwan Workshop, said Taiwan and China remain deadlocked with few signs that either side would make a concession anytime soon.
Under such circumstances, Goldstein said Taiwan should remain cautious and China should have the patience to maintain the “status quo.”
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