China has effectively “lost Taiwan,” a researcher told a conference in Washington on Wednesday.
“Willing, peaceful, unification is out of the question — certainly in the near term and most likely in the medium term as well,” said Michael Mazza, a research fellow in foreign and defense policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute.
He said there was little interest in Taiwan for a “one country two-systems” arrangement and that for the young Taiwanese the idea that China and Taiwan were part of “one China” was “increasingly an anachronism.”
Addressing a Heritage Foundation conference on “Taiwan in international organizations” Mazza said that the more Taiwan regularly interacts with other countries the more other countries are likely to care about Taiwan’s fate.
“The more that others care about Taiwan the more they will reject the Chinese position that Taiwan affairs are internal affairs,” he said.
Mazza said that a wave of international opinion would not change Beijing’s approach to Taiwan, but combined with Taiwan’s defense capability, the US deterrent, and Taiwan’s deep economic ties to the rest of the world, China might find its options “somewhat more constrained.”
Former managing director of the American Institute in Taiwan Barbara Schrage said it was too early to predict how Beijing would react to Taiwan’s efforts to maintain and increase its international space following the victory of the Democratic Progressive Party in this year’s elections.
“I am cautiously optimistic that Taiwan will be able to maintain its current international space so long as it does nothing to openly challenge the PRC [People’s Republic of China] on this issue. Expanding its international space is likely to be much more difficult, but it is certainly within the realms of possibility,” she said.
Schrage urged Taiwan to seek the support of other countries for its participation in international organizations and clearly demonstrate that it is a responsible member of the international community.
She said that Taiwan should avoid strictly political objectives such as controversial battles for full membership of the UN and its affiliated organizations, adding such contests “aggravate Beijing and stand no chance of success.”
She said the US should develop strategies and tactics to assist Taiwan to achieve its priorities including the development of flexible and imaginative approaches.
“The administration should quietly but actively engage like-minded countries to support initiatives and tactics aimed at achieving broader participation in the international community,” Schrage said.
Center for Strategic and International Studies China Power Project director Bonnie Glaser said the international community was frequently deprived of Taiwan’s “vast experience and knowledge” on a range of issues.
“By not including Taiwan in international regimes particularly those that govern issues like civil aviation safety, nuclear security, non-proliferation and police cooperation, the world is left with a missing link in what would otherwise be an integrated fight,” she said.
Glaser said that on virtually a weekly basis there was an incident in which Taiwanese were blocked from joining a meeting somewhere in the world.
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