The meeting between President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) and Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) in Singapore on Nov. 7 is set to impact upon the engagement between Taiwan’s next leader and Beijing, and redirect US attention to the importance of cross-strait development, according to a US academic.
New York University School of Law professor Jarome Cohen said the summit’s immediate impact would be on the presidential and legislative elections slated for Jan. 16.
“It will result in higher priority to cross-strait relations in the developing electoral dialogue and make voters give somewhat less attention to often-decisive domestic issues,” Cohen said, adding that he believes this might boost the floundering Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) — which is trailing behind the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in the polls — to a “modest, but insufficient extent.”
However, he said that the more important impact on Taiwan goes beyond the elections.
Cohen said that the Ma-Xi meeting has had a favorable effect on cross-strait relations, “not by strengthening the impact of Ma’s already-conciliatory policies of the past seven years, but by helping to limit their expected erosion when he leaves the stage.”
“Because of growing Taiwanese nationalism, a crisis in cross-strait relations might re-emerge, no matter who wins the forthcoming elections,” he said. “In that context, the summit represents an important effort to minimize adverse development by offering a channel to continue high-level cross-strait relations.”
He said that by demonstrating equal dignity and status for Taiwan’s leader, China has given DPP presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) — the front-runner in the presidential race — an incentive to meet Xi halfway should she win the presidential election.
However, Cohen said that the price of Tsai’s admission is very likely to be too high for her to accept.
He said that the DPP has always rejected the so-called “1992 consensus” — which the Ma administration perceives as a tacit agreement between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait on “one China,” with each side free to interpret what that means.
He also said that after Tsai consolidates her hold on government, an attempt to organize another cross-strait leaders’ meeting should be made, without the acceptance of any preconditions.
The summit has also had an impact on US relations with both sides of the Taiwan Strait. It has revived, if only temporarily, US awareness of Taiwan and of the importance or cross-strait developments, Chen said.
The US government will undoubtedly want to push back at Xi’s attempt to exclude Washington from the Taiwan puzzle as part of Beijing’s efforts to reduce US influence in Asia, he added.
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