A new commentary published by the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) said the US should declare “openly and unequivocally” that it will defend Taiwan against any Chinese coercion or aggression.
Written by Joseph Bosco, a former China desk officer at the US Department of Defense, the commentary was a response to an article by CSIS China experts Bonnie Glaser and Jacqueline Vitello published last month by the think tank.
Bosco said that Glaser and Vitello sounded the alarm and warned that Beijing could react harshly if Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) Chairperson and presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) wins next year’s presidential election.
He argued that the clock started running “on this particular scenario” on Election Day 2012, since President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) by law could not run for a third term.
“With no assurance of another [Chinese Nationalist Party] KMT victory in 2016, Beijing strived to make the most of the four years it could count on a Ma administration being more receptive than what might follow,” Bosco said on the CSIS Web site.
He said that Beijing bet heavily on economic integration as the path to forging significant and irreversible political bonds, but when Ma met strong domestic resistance, China changed tactics.
“Persuasion having failed to sway the Taiwanese to see things their way, China’s Communist leaders reverted to their default position — coercion and threats,” Bosco said.
He said that unification is Beijing’s ultimate objective, so the issue is not whether Tsai as president would do something rash and provoke a crisis.
“That seems extremely unlikely given her calm, lawyerly, almost scholarly temperament — and her commitments to the United States,” he said.
Bosco said the problem for Beijing is what Tsai will not do — that is, accept unification against the clear will of the Taiwanese public.
“And that would be true of any DPP leader — as it was even true of the KMT’s Ma,” he said.
Bosco said Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) and his colleagues need to accept that reality or “risk losing more than Taiwan.”
“That is where Washington comes in,” Bosco said.
According to Bosco, the US faced a similar challenge in 2012 when Beijing made unmistakably clear its preference for Ma’s reelection and Washington chose to put its thumb on the scale and throw unprecedented diplomatic support to the Ma administration.
“This time Washington seems prepared to let democracy work its will on Taiwan,” he said.
Bosco said that Glaser and Vitello recommend that if Tsai wins as expected, the US should prod both sides to find a modus vivendi that ensures cross-strait communication channels remain open and pragmatic cooperation continues.
“This is a worthy goal, though difficult considering the irreconcilability of China’s and Taiwan’s bottom lines on unification,” Bosco said.
However, he argued that it is not sufficient, and that Washington must pledge to defend Taiwan in the case of an attack.
“Washington needs to harden its position before Xi does,” Bosco said.
“Peace in the region, even a tense peace, no longer allows the lethal luxury of strategic ambiguity, which only tempts China into dangerous adventurism,” he said.
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