A poll conducted by the Taiwan Brain Trust think tank found that support for presumptive Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) presidential candidate Hung Hsiu-chu (洪秀柱) has tumbled in the past month, falling from 31 percent last month to 21 percent in a one-to-one match-up against Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文).
According to the poll, the results of which were released yesterday, Tsai maintains her lead over both Hung — with 54.3 percent to 21.3 percent — and the People First Party’s (PFP) James Soong (宋楚瑜) — with 52.3 percent to 29.3 percent — in one-to-one match-ups.
Tsai also leads in the scenario in which both Hung and Soong contest the election, with Tsai enjoying 46.5 percent support over Hung’s 17 percent and Soong’s 23.6 percent.
“However, in the Tsai versus Hung contest, in which Hung’s numbers have plunged, the number of those who said they are undecided has increased from 13.7 percent [in June] to 24.4 percent [this month]. It shows that the loss of support on Hung’s part has not gone to Tsai,” said think tank director Hsu Yung-ming (徐永明), a political scientist at Soochow University.
“That might be due to Hung’s recent controversial remarks or the political atmosphere. It calls for continued attention after the KMT’s national congress on Sunday [tomorrow], in which Hung is expected to secure the party’s presidential nomination,” he added.
Hsu said that another interesting finding was that Tsai, when facing Hung and Soong individually, has about 20 percent of pan-blue voters’ support, which indicates that the presidential election does not simply pit the pan-blue camp against the pan-green camp.
“Hung’s ‘one China, same interpretation’ might have alienated some pan-blue voters,” Hsu said.
“Soong joining the race would divide the pan-blue camp’s votes, relegating Hung to third place. While it would have little effect on Tsai’s prospects for winning, his taking part in the campaign might give his party a boost in the legislative elections, and consequently change the composition of the legislature,” Hsu added.
Regarding the legislative elections, the poll shows that the DPP has 38.2 percent of support as a party, compared with the KMT’s 20.5 percent, the PFP’s 8.3 percent, the Taiwan Solidarity Party’s 3.7 percent and the New Party’s 0.9 percent.
The “third force,” including the Green Party and the newly founded New Power Party, Social Democratic Party, Free Taiwan Party and Taiwan Independence Action Party, together have 8.3 percent of support.
“It depends on how well they can integrate to see whether they can cross the 5 percent threshold [to have legislator-at-large seats],” Hsu told reporters.
The think tank also surveyed people’s responses to Hung’s “one China, same interpretation” cross-strait proposal and found 61.2 percent disapprove of the policy.
“Even among the pan-blue voters, 40.1 percent said they do not agree with the policy,” Taiwan Brain Trust associate executive director Lin Ting-hui (林廷輝) said. “It shows that Taiwanese are highly skeptical of the proposal.”
Hung’s policy is an attempt to change the “status quo” and a sign that the KMT’s cross-strait policy is unpredictable and volatile, Lin said.
“It also indicates Hung’s lack of ability in dealing with cross-strait issues and her team’s incompetence,” Lin said.
The poll also saw a new high for the past 20 months in the public’s support of the view that Taiwan is currently a sovereign country, which hit 76 percent.
Curiously, those aged 40 to 49 were most likely to hold that view, at 80.3 percent, while 32.3 percent of respondents aged 20 to 29 disagreed.
“However, 84.1 percent of those aged 20 to 29 and 76 percent of the 30 to 39 age group said Taiwan should become an independent country in the future,” research department director Li Ming-juinn (李明峻) said.
“That demonstrates that young people are apparently not satisfied with Taiwan’s current state, and they are the future generation,” he said.
The coast guard drove away 567 Chinese boats and seized seven illegally operating in Taiwanese waters in the first six months of this year, the Coast Guard Administration (CGA) said yesterday. They mostly operated near Kinmen and Penghu counties, resulting in fines totaling NT$1.7 million (US$52,440), it said. Three ships — two near Kinmen County and one near Penghu County — were detained in January for illegally crossing the border, while one ship each was detained near Kinmen in February and Penghu in March respectively, it said. The ship seized near Penghu in January was the Yun Ao (雲澳), detained by the CGA’s
Military photovoltaic projects have been found to have used Chinese-made devices blacklisted by the government, including Huawei Technologies Co routers, the Ministry of National Defense’s Armaments Bureau said on Thursday. An ongoing investigation has identified the illegal use of 128 current transformers, two routers and a data reader at the Hungchailin Army Base, Pinghai Navy Base and Tri-Service General Hospital’s Songshan branch, it said. The devices were manufactured in the Chinese factories of German solar energy equipment supplier SMA Solar Technology, Taiwanese electronics manufacturer Delta Electronics Co, Chinese electronics manufacturer Huawei and Taiwanese industrial PC maker Advantech Co, the bureau said. The bureau’s
The entire Alishan Forest Railway line is to reopen for the first time in 15 years on Saturday, with tickets to go on sale at 2pm today. The historic railway from Chiayi to Alishan (阿里山) is finally set to reopen after the completion of the final No. 42 tunnel, Alishan Forest Railway and Cultural Heritage Office Deputy Director-General Chou Heng-kai (周恆凱) said. It is to run on a new timetable, with four trains daily, he said. The 9am train is to depart from Chiayi Railway Station bound for Shizilu Station (十字路), while the 10am train departing from Chiayi is to go all the
FLU CONTINUES: Hospitals reported 101,091 visits for flu-like illnesses last week, while 68 severe cases and 16 flu-related deaths were also reported, the CDC said The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) yesterday reported 932 hospitalizations due to COVID-19 and 64 related deaths for last week, adding that the number of people who had contracted new SARS-CoV-2 subvariants KP.2 and LB.1 has increased. The number of people hospitalized due to COVID-19 increased from 815 in the previous week to 932 last week, while 90 percent of the 64 deceased were aged 65 or older, CDC physician Lin Yung-ching (林詠青) said. JN.1 was still the dominant variant among local and imported cases in the past four weeks, while KP.2 was the second-most common, Lin said. Cases with the LB.1 subvariant