US Naval War College professor James Holmes has some advice for Taiwan on how to avoid a Chinese takeover.
“I reject the idea that a free people is doomed to fall to foreign conquerors,” he said.
Writing on Web site RealClearDefense, the strategy expert said that Taiwan can “master its destiny” if it does a few basic things.
First, Taiwan must not be taken in by “hooplah” over cordial cross-strait relations, he said.
“Much has been made of the supposed thaw in cross-strait relations during the [President] Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) years,” Holmes said. “This will last precisely as long as Beijing sees the trendlines going its way toward unification.”
Taiwan must be realistic about US help in the case of an invasion, he added.
“Taiwan must ready itself to hold out as long as possible while the US political process sorts itself out, orders are given and US relief forces try to pry open the region,” he said.
“Self-help” should be the watchword for Taipei’s defense preparations, he wrote.
“Threaten credibly to make things hard and drawn-out for Chinese forces and Bejing’s success doubtful and you may balk its plans — or deter aggression altogether,” he said.
Taipei needs to be “pessimistic” about allied support.
“Events will either prove you right and you’ll be ready, or you will be pleasantly surprised when American planes appear overhead and gray hulls come over the horizon,” Holmes said.
“Savvy defenders” can make a cross-strait amphibious assault “hell” for the invaders, he added.
“Taiwan’s topography is extraordinarily mountainous, offering numerous emplacements for anti-ship and anti-air missiles and long-range gunnery,” Holmes said.
“Dug-in forces armed with such weaponry can withstand serious punishment from air and missile strikes, China’s chief methods of softening up the island’s defenses,” the professor said.
Holmes said that thinking ahead about the worst case of Chinese forces getting ashore, Taiwan should prepare an insurgency that could help dissuade Beijing from ordering an invasion in the first place.
“Visibly preparing for protracted resistance would telegraph Taipei’s seriousness and could bolster deterrence,” he said.
He advised the Taiwanese navy to deploy “swarms” of lethal, missile-armed small craft around the island’s periphery.
The professor said that guerrilla war at sea can work for Taiwan’s defenders the way it worked for Mao Zedong’s (毛澤東) irregular forces against Japan and Chiang Kai-shek’s (蔣介石) Nationalists.
“The weak can win if they deploy scarce assets cunningly,” he said.
‘DENIAL DEFENSE’: The US would increase its military presence with uncrewed ships, and submarines, while boosting defense in the Indo-Pacific, a Pete Hegseth memo said The US is reorienting its military strategy to focus primarily on deterring a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan, a memo signed by US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth showed. The memo also called on Taiwan to increase its defense spending. The document, known as the “Interim National Defense Strategic Guidance,” was distributed this month and detailed the national defense plans of US President Donald Trump’s administration, an article in the Washington Post said on Saturday. It outlines how the US can prepare for a potential war with China and defend itself from threats in the “near abroad,” including Greenland and the Panama
A wild live dugong was found in Taiwan for the first time in 88 years, after it was accidentally caught by a fisher’s net on Tuesday in Yilan County’s Fenniaolin (粉鳥林). This is the first sighting of the species in Taiwan since 1937, having already been considered “extinct” in the country and considered as “vulnerable” by the International Union for Conservation of Nature. A fisher surnamed Chen (陳) went to Fenniaolin to collect the fish in his netting, but instead caught a 3m long, 500kg dugong. The fisher released the animal back into the wild, not realizing it was an endangered species at
The Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) is maintaining close ties with Beijing, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) said yesterday, hours after a new round of Chinese military drills in the Taiwan Strait began. Political parties in a democracy have a responsibility to be loyal to the nation and defend its sovereignty, DPP spokesman Justin Wu (吳崢) told a news conference in Taipei. His comments came hours after Beijing announced via Chinese state media that the Chinese People’s Liberation Army’s Eastern Theater Command was holding large-scale drills simulating a multi-pronged attack on Taiwan. Contrary to the KMT’s claims that it is staunchly anti-communist, KMT Deputy
The High Prosecutors’ Office yesterday withdrew an appeal against the acquittal of a former bank manager 22 years after his death, marking Taiwan’s first instance of prosecutors rendering posthumous justice to a wrongfully convicted defendant. Chu Ching-en (諸慶恩) — formerly a manager at the Taipei branch of BNP Paribas — was in 1999 accused by Weng Mao-chung (翁茂鍾), then-president of Chia Her Industrial Co, of forging a request for a fixed deposit of US$10 million by I-Hwa Industrial Co, a subsidiary of Chia Her, which was used as collateral. Chu was ruled not guilty in the first trial, but was found guilty
RSS