There is likely to be a new “crisis in relations” between Taiwan and China in the coming months, said Denny Roy, a senior fellow at the East-West Center in Honolulu.
In a study published in the US journal National Interest, Roy urged Washington to support Taiwan.
He said that coercion from the People’s Republic of China (PRC) against democratic Taiwan would challenge US reliability.
“Taiwan should be considered a crucial place to make a stand, not a liability to be abandoned in a strategic retreat to more defensible ground,” Roy wrote.
He said that if Taiwan chooses to resist pressure to unify with China, Washington should support it with “robust arms sales.”
Roy predicted a near-term crisis that would pose “acute difficulties” for the US.
“Abandoning Taiwan to involuntary absorption, however, would signal to the region the end of Pax Americana,” he said.
The Democratic Progressive Party stands a good chance of capturing the presidency next year, Roy said.
“Beijing would see such a government as separatist, instantly intensifying Chinese fears that Taiwan is slipping away and that dramatic PRC counteraction is necessary,” he said.
He said that Chinese leadership under President Xi Jinping (習近平) now appears less constrained than before by the need to appear accommodating.
“Failing to deliver on Taiwan could create a vulnerability for Xi that his enemies would be quick to exploit,” Roy said.
This could impel Xi to demand that Taipei open political negotiations and that such a demand could lead to a quick rebuff, humiliation and a new Taiwan Strait crisis, he said.
Roy said that as difficult as defending Taiwan from Chinese attack would be, shrinking from Taiwan’s defense would seriously endanger the US’ agenda in the Asia-Pacific region.
“Conceding Taiwan to a Chinese sphere of influence would not buy peace with China,” he said.
“The Chinese would interpret such an American action as the beginning of a withdrawal of the US from the Asia-Pacific region and would expect American resistance in other areas of US-China disagreement to diminish accordingly,” he said.
Roy added that Beijing’s rise to great power status is still uncertain, and it faces immense challenges including a rapidly aging society, severe environmental pollution and the need for fundamental and painful economic reforms.
With this in the background, the military conquest of Taiwan is an extremely unattractive option.
There is a “considerable risk” the operation would fail to put Chinese troops in control of key Taiwanese cities, would disrupt the Chinese economy and would cause domestic social and political turmoil, he wrote.
“If the Chinese believe the US would fight for Taiwan even at the risk of losing a couple of US warships, the prospect of a war might deter the Chinese leadership from opting for a military attack on Taiwan,” he said.
“Some analysts argue that a tougher US policy toward China is warranted. If so, continuing and even upgrading US support for Taiwan is an appropriate response,” he said.
TENSIONS: The Chinese aircraft and vessels were headed toward the western Pacific to take part in a joint air and sea military exercise, the Ministry of National Defense said A relatively large number of Chinese military aircraft and vessels were detected in Taiwan’s vicinity yesterday morning, apparently en route to a Chinese military exercise in the western Pacific, the Ministry of National Defense (MND) said. In a statement, the ministry said 36 Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) aircraft, including J-16 fighters and nuclear-capable H-6 bombers, crossed the median line of the Taiwan Strait or an extension of it, and were detected in the southern and southeastern parts of Taiwan’s air defense identification zone (ADIZ) from 5:20am to 9:30am yesterday. They were headed toward the western Pacific to take part in a
Honor guards are to stop performing changing of the guard ceremonies around a statue of Chiang Kai-shek (蔣介石) to avoid “worshiping authoritarianism,” the Ministry of Culture said yesterday. The fate of the bronze statue has long been the subject of fierce and polarizing debate in Taiwan, which has transformed from an autocracy under Chiang into one of Asia’s most vibrant democracies. The changing of the guard each hour at the Chiang Kai-shek Memorial Hall in Taipei is a major tourist attraction, but starting from 9am on Monday, the ceremony is to be moved outdoors to Democracy Boulevard, outside the eponymous blue-and-white memorial
The Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) supports peaceful unification with China, and President William Lai (賴清德) is “a bit naive” for being a “practical worker for Taiwanese independence,” former president Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) said in an interview published yesterday. Asked about whether the KMT is on the same page as the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) on the issue of Taiwanese independence or unification with China, Ma told the Malaysian Chinese-language newspaper Sin Chew Daily that they are not. While the KMT supports peaceful unification and is against unification by force, the DPP opposes unification as such and
CASES SLOWING: Although weekly COVID-19 cases are rising, the growth rate has been falling, from 90 percent to 30 percent, 14 percent and 6 percent, the CDC said COVID-19 hospitalizations last week rose 6 percent to 987, while deaths soared 55 percent to 99, the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) said yesterday, adding that the recent wave of infections would likely peak this week. People aged 65 or older accounted for 79 percent of the hospitalizations and 90 percent of the deaths, the majority of whom have or had underlying health conditions, CDC data showed. The youngest hospitalized case last week was a six-month-old, who was born preterm and was unvaccinated, CDC physician Lin Yung-ching (林詠青) said. The infant had a fever, coughing and a runny nose early this month, but