There is likely to be a new “crisis in relations” between Taiwan and China in the coming months, said Denny Roy, a senior fellow at the East-West Center in Honolulu.
In a study published in the US journal National Interest, Roy urged Washington to support Taiwan.
He said that coercion from the People’s Republic of China (PRC) against democratic Taiwan would challenge US reliability.
“Taiwan should be considered a crucial place to make a stand, not a liability to be abandoned in a strategic retreat to more defensible ground,” Roy wrote.
He said that if Taiwan chooses to resist pressure to unify with China, Washington should support it with “robust arms sales.”
Roy predicted a near-term crisis that would pose “acute difficulties” for the US.
“Abandoning Taiwan to involuntary absorption, however, would signal to the region the end of Pax Americana,” he said.
The Democratic Progressive Party stands a good chance of capturing the presidency next year, Roy said.
“Beijing would see such a government as separatist, instantly intensifying Chinese fears that Taiwan is slipping away and that dramatic PRC counteraction is necessary,” he said.
He said that Chinese leadership under President Xi Jinping (習近平) now appears less constrained than before by the need to appear accommodating.
“Failing to deliver on Taiwan could create a vulnerability for Xi that his enemies would be quick to exploit,” Roy said.
This could impel Xi to demand that Taipei open political negotiations and that such a demand could lead to a quick rebuff, humiliation and a new Taiwan Strait crisis, he said.
Roy said that as difficult as defending Taiwan from Chinese attack would be, shrinking from Taiwan’s defense would seriously endanger the US’ agenda in the Asia-Pacific region.
“Conceding Taiwan to a Chinese sphere of influence would not buy peace with China,” he said.
“The Chinese would interpret such an American action as the beginning of a withdrawal of the US from the Asia-Pacific region and would expect American resistance in other areas of US-China disagreement to diminish accordingly,” he said.
Roy added that Beijing’s rise to great power status is still uncertain, and it faces immense challenges including a rapidly aging society, severe environmental pollution and the need for fundamental and painful economic reforms.
With this in the background, the military conquest of Taiwan is an extremely unattractive option.
There is a “considerable risk” the operation would fail to put Chinese troops in control of key Taiwanese cities, would disrupt the Chinese economy and would cause domestic social and political turmoil, he wrote.
“If the Chinese believe the US would fight for Taiwan even at the risk of losing a couple of US warships, the prospect of a war might deter the Chinese leadership from opting for a military attack on Taiwan,” he said.
“Some analysts argue that a tougher US policy toward China is warranted. If so, continuing and even upgrading US support for Taiwan is an appropriate response,” he said.
WANG RELEASED: A police investigation showed that an organized crime group allegedly taught their clients how to pretend to be sick during medical exams Actor Darren Wang (王大陸) and 11 others were released on bail yesterday, after being questioned for allegedly dodging compulsory military service or forging documents to help others avoid serving. Wang, 33, was catapulted into stardom for his role in the coming-of-age film Our Times (我的少女時代). Lately, he has been focusing on developing his entertainment career in China. The New Taipei District Prosecutors’ Office last month began investigating an organized crime group that is allegedly helping men dodge compulsory military service using falsified documents. Police in New Taipei City Yonghe Precinct at the end of last month arrested the main suspect,
Eleven people, including actor Darren Wang (王大陸), were taken into custody today for questioning regarding the evasion of compulsory military service and document forgery, the New Taipei District Prosecutors’ Office said. Eight of the people, including Wang, are suspected of evading military service, while three are suspected of forging medical documents to assist them, the report said. They are all being questioned by police and would later be transferred to the prosecutors’ office for further investigation. Three men surnamed Lee (李), Chang (張) and Lin (林) are suspected of improperly assisting conscripts in changing their military classification from “stand-by
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Former Taiwan People’s Party chairman Ko Wen-je (柯文哲) may apply to visit home following the death of his father this morning, the Taipei Detention Center said. Ko’s father, Ko Cheng-fa (柯承發), passed away at 8:40am today at the Hsinchu branch of National Taiwan University Hospital. He was 94 years old. The center said Ko Wen-je was welcome to apply, but declined to say whether it had already received an application. The center also provides psychological counseling to people in detention as needed, it added, also declining to comment on Ko Wen-je’s mental state. Ko Wen-je is being held in detention as he awaits trial
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