Beijing might overreact if Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) wins next year’s presidential election, a US expert said on Friday.
Richard Bush, director of the Center for East Asia Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution, was speaking at a Brookings panel discussion on the implications of China’s “rise” for US national security.
He said it was “way too early” to make a sound judgement about the upcoming elections.
“We do not know who the candidates will be, although people think they know,” Bush said.
He also said that neither candidates’ cross-strait policies nor the potential victor were known.
“A lot of things are in play,” Bush said. “I do fear there may be an overreaction on Beijing’s part if Tsai Ing-wen should win and become Taiwan’s next president. I hope they will not overreact, remain restrained and see how the situation develops.”
Earlier in the panel, US National War College professor Bernard Cole said that China’s military modernization focuses on specific strategic situations: Taiwan and the East and South China seas.
He said the Chinese military did not see Taiwan’s military as a significant problem, but that it remained concerned about US intervention in the case of a conflict.
“I do not mean to [imply] that Taiwan’s importance in China’s strategic thinking has been reduced,” he said.
Cole said that calculations by the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) were not always very accurate and that the PLA had “grossly underestimated” the capability of Japan’s Self-Defense Forces.
“For strategic importance, I think Taiwan remains at the head of the list,” he said.
Bush said that Chinese development of ballistic and cruise missiles and fighters had changed the “military calculus” across the Taiwan Strait and created a formidable deterrent to separatism.
“The improvement of China’s air and naval capabilities is such that some experts believe it would be difficult for Taiwan to defend itself with the traditional strategy of trying to establish air and sea control over the Taiwan Strait,” Bush said. “We may have ... a challenge coming up because Taiwan is having an election about this time next year.”
Bush said it was not known how China would perceive election results or what it might do.
“We have the capacity to play the kind of role we have played in the past — and that would be a good thing — but whether we have the will to do so, and the political system to express that will, is another question,” he said.
Hong Kong singer Andy Lau’s (劉德華) concert in Taipei tonight has been cancelled due to Typhoon Kong-rei and is to be held at noon on Saturday instead, the concert organizer SuperDome said in a statement this afternoon. Tonight’s concert at Taipei Arena was to be the first of four consecutive nightly performances by Lau in Taipei, but it was called off at the request of Taipei Metro, the operator of the venue, due to the weather, said the organizer. Taipei Metro said the concert was cancelled out of consideration for the audience’s safety. The decision disappointed a number of Lau’s fans who had
A tropical depression east of the Philippines became a tropical storm early yesterday, the Central Weather Administration (CWA) said, less than a week after a typhoon barreled across the nation. The agency issued an advisory at 3:30am stating that the 22nd tropical storm, named Yinxing, of the Pacific typhoon season formed at 2am. As of 8am, the storm was 1,730km southeast of Oluanpi (鵝鑾鼻), Taiwan’s southernmost point, with a 100km radius. It was moving west-northwest at 32kph, with maximum sustained winds of 83kph and gusts of up to 108kph. Based on its current path, the storm is not expected to hit Taiwan, CWA
Commuters in Taipei picked their way through debris and navigated disrupted transit schedules this morning on their way to work and school, as the city was still working to clear the streets in the aftermath of Typhoon Kong-rey. By 11pm yesterday, there were estimated 2,000 trees down in the city, as well as 390 reports of infrastructure damage, 318 reports of building damage and 307 reports of fallen signs, the Taipei Public Works Department said. Workers were mobilized late last night to clear the debris as soon as possible, the department said. However, as of this morning, many people were leaving messages
A Canadian dental assistant was recently indicted by prosecutors after she was caught in August trying to smuggle 32kg of marijuana into Taiwan, the Aviation Police Bureau said on Wednesday. The 30-year-old was arrested on Aug. 4 after arriving on a flight to Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport, Chang Tsung-lung (張驄瀧), a squad chief in the Aviation Police Bureau’s Criminal Investigation Division, told reporters. Customs officials noticed irregularities when the woman’s two suitcases passed through X-ray baggage scanners, Chang said. Upon searching them, officers discovered 32.61kg of marijuana, which local media outlets estimated to have a market value of more than NT$50 million (US$1.56
RSS