Beijing might overreact if Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) wins next year’s presidential election, a US expert said on Friday.
Richard Bush, director of the Center for East Asia Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution, was speaking at a Brookings panel discussion on the implications of China’s “rise” for US national security.
He said it was “way too early” to make a sound judgement about the upcoming elections.
“We do not know who the candidates will be, although people think they know,” Bush said.
He also said that neither candidates’ cross-strait policies nor the potential victor were known.
“A lot of things are in play,” Bush said. “I do fear there may be an overreaction on Beijing’s part if Tsai Ing-wen should win and become Taiwan’s next president. I hope they will not overreact, remain restrained and see how the situation develops.”
Earlier in the panel, US National War College professor Bernard Cole said that China’s military modernization focuses on specific strategic situations: Taiwan and the East and South China seas.
He said the Chinese military did not see Taiwan’s military as a significant problem, but that it remained concerned about US intervention in the case of a conflict.
“I do not mean to [imply] that Taiwan’s importance in China’s strategic thinking has been reduced,” he said.
Cole said that calculations by the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) were not always very accurate and that the PLA had “grossly underestimated” the capability of Japan’s Self-Defense Forces.
“For strategic importance, I think Taiwan remains at the head of the list,” he said.
Bush said that Chinese development of ballistic and cruise missiles and fighters had changed the “military calculus” across the Taiwan Strait and created a formidable deterrent to separatism.
“The improvement of China’s air and naval capabilities is such that some experts believe it would be difficult for Taiwan to defend itself with the traditional strategy of trying to establish air and sea control over the Taiwan Strait,” Bush said. “We may have ... a challenge coming up because Taiwan is having an election about this time next year.”
Bush said it was not known how China would perceive election results or what it might do.
“We have the capacity to play the kind of role we have played in the past — and that would be a good thing — but whether we have the will to do so, and the political system to express that will, is another question,” he said.
Several Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) officials including Chairman Eric Chu (朱立倫) are to be summoned for questioning and then transferred to prosecutors for holding an illegal assembly in Taipei last night, the Taipei Police said today. Chu and two others hosted an illegal assembly and are to be requested to explain their actions, the Taipei City Police Department's Zhongzheng (中正) First Precinct said, referring to a protest held after Huang Lu Chin-ju (黃呂錦茹), KMT Taipei's chapter director, and several other KMT staffers were questioned for alleged signature forgery in recall petitions against Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) legislators. Taipei prosecutors had filed
Taiwan would welcome the return of Honduras as a diplomatic ally if its next president decides to make such a move, Minister of Foreign Affairs Lin Chia-lung (林佳龍) said yesterday. “Of course, we would welcome Honduras if they want to restore diplomatic ties with Taiwan after their elections,” Lin said at a meeting of the legislature’s Foreign Affairs and National Defense Committee, when asked to comment on statements made by two of the three Honduran presidential candidates during the presidential campaign in the Central American country. Taiwan is paying close attention to the region as a whole in the wake of a
President William Lai (賴清德) has appointed former vice president Chen Chien-jen (陳建仁) to attend the late Pope Francis’ funeral at the Vatican City on Saturday on his behalf, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said today. The Holy See announced Francis’ funeral would take place on Saturday at 10am in St Peter’s Square. The ministry expressed condolences over Francis’ passing and said that Chen would represent Taiwan at the funeral and offer condolences in person. Taiwan and the Vatican have a long-standing and close diplomatic relationship, the ministry said. Both sides agreed to have Chen represent Taiwan at the funeral, given his Catholic identity and
NEW WORLD: Taiwan is pursuing innovative approaches to international relations through economics, trade and values-based diplomacy, the foreign minister said Taiwan would implement a “three-chain strategy” that promotes democratic values in response to US tariffs, Minister of Foreign Affairs Lin Chia-lung (林佳龍) said. Taiwan would aim to create a “global democratic value chain,” seek to capitalize on its position within the first island chain and promote a “non-red supply chain,” Lin was quoted as saying in the ministry’s written report to the Legislative Yuan submitted ahead of the legislature’s Foreign Affairs and National Defense Committee meeting slated for today. The Ministry would also uphold a spirit of mutual beneficial collaboration, maintaining close communication and consultations with Washington to show that Taiwan-US cooperation
RSS