Taiwan should change its defense strategy and concentrate on “guerrilla” warfare according to a lengthy new report from a Washington-based policy research institute.
“Despite the gravity of Taiwan’s situation, it would be premature to consider its defense a lost cause,” the report said.
Prepared by the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments (CSBA), the report said that with Taipei confronted by a Beijing regime that places a growing emphasis on its ability to quickly win small, local wars, “time has emerged as Taiwan’s single-most precious strategic commodity.”
Acquiring and maintaining the ability to protract any conflict with China “should therefore be at the very heart of Taiwan’s defense strategy” the report said.
In the event of war, the principal aim should be to impede the ability of China’s People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) to control the airspace and seas around the nation using guerrilla tactics.
“If the PLA were to initiate a war, it would likely set air supremacy and naval mastery as top objectives in order to facilitate subsequent attacks on, or a blockade of, Taiwan, break Taiwan’s political will, or set conditions for a subsequent invasion,” the report said.
According to the report, as long as the nation retains, or appears to retain, the ability to destroy a significant fraction of the amphibious shipping and transport aircraft required for a successful invasion, it would reduce the probability of such an invasion ever being launched.
Taiwan should therefore adopt a sea denial strategy that is complemented and protected by an unconventional air defense campaign along the lines of North Vietnam’s use of air defenses in its war with the US.
“Doing so would buy critical time in which outside powers could intervene and raise the specter of a protracted war, which may in and of itself serve as a deterrent to PRC [People’s Republic of China] aggression,” the report said.
The report was written by former US deputy assistant secretary of defense Jim Thomas, retired US Air Force officer John Stillion and CSBA research fellow Iskander Rehman.
Taiwan does not need to exert absolute control over its surrounding waters to succeed, the authors said.
“It must simply be able to identify and successfully attack a significant portion of any approaching blockade or invasion fleet,” the report said.
To this end, Taipei should build a fleet of about 42 midget submarines similar to those used by North Korea and Iran.
These midget submarines — with a displacement of 120 tonnes — would be more easily produced indigenously and are a fraction of the cost of the large diesel-electric vessels now being planned.
As the midget subs harass the invasion fleet — most likely consisting of 32 amphibious transport ships and 60 naval combatant escorts — Taiwan would also need about 1,200 anti-ship cruise missiles (ASCM).
“These could be stored in road-mobile, four-pack launchers with the same external appearance as trucks ferrying standard 20-foot shipping containers,” the report said.
At the same time, Taipei needs to place heavy emphasis on mining.
The report said pre-positioning small, lethal unmanned underwater vehicles and smart mines in the Taiwan Strait or near Chinese ports would complicate Beijing’s offensive plans to achieve command of the strait and blockade the nation’s ports.
Together, 42 midget submarines, 1,200 ASCM and launchers, and a large inventory of mines would cost about US$1.5 billion, less than the planned eight diesel-electric subs, “while providing greater sea denial capability.”
Rather than spending billions of US dollars to recapitalize its inventory of fighter aircraft, the nation should build a highly distributed and resilient network of ground-based air defense systems.
“The main objective behind Taiwan’s air defense effort should not be to destroy every intruding PLA aircraft, but rather to impose real and virtual attrition, while surviving to operate for as long as possible,” the report said.
If China succeeded in establishing a beachhead, the Taiwanese army could “melt into the island’s urban and mountainous areas in order to wage a war of a thousand cuts against PLA occupation forces,” the report said.
‘DENIAL DEFENSE’: The US would increase its military presence with uncrewed ships, and submarines, while boosting defense in the Indo-Pacific, a Pete Hegseth memo said The US is reorienting its military strategy to focus primarily on deterring a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan, a memo signed by US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth showed. The memo also called on Taiwan to increase its defense spending. The document, known as the “Interim National Defense Strategic Guidance,” was distributed this month and detailed the national defense plans of US President Donald Trump’s administration, an article in the Washington Post said on Saturday. It outlines how the US can prepare for a potential war with China and defend itself from threats in the “near abroad,” including Greenland and the Panama
The High Prosecutors’ Office yesterday withdrew an appeal against the acquittal of a former bank manager 22 years after his death, marking Taiwan’s first instance of prosecutors rendering posthumous justice to a wrongfully convicted defendant. Chu Ching-en (諸慶恩) — formerly a manager at the Taipei branch of BNP Paribas — was in 1999 accused by Weng Mao-chung (翁茂鍾), then-president of Chia Her Industrial Co, of forging a request for a fixed deposit of US$10 million by I-Hwa Industrial Co, a subsidiary of Chia Her, which was used as collateral. Chu was ruled not guilty in the first trial, but was found guilty
A wild live dugong was found in Taiwan for the first time in 88 years, after it was accidentally caught by a fisher’s net on Tuesday in Yilan County’s Fenniaolin (粉鳥林). This is the first sighting of the species in Taiwan since 1937, having already been considered “extinct” in the country and considered as “vulnerable” by the International Union for Conservation of Nature. A fisher surnamed Chen (陳) went to Fenniaolin to collect the fish in his netting, but instead caught a 3m long, 500kg dugong. The fisher released the animal back into the wild, not realizing it was an endangered species at
DEADLOCK: As the commission is unable to forum a quorum to review license renewal applications, the channel operators are not at fault and can air past their license date The National Communications Commission (NCC) yesterday said that the Public Television Service (PTS) and 36 other television and radio broadcasters could continue airing, despite the commission’s inability to meet a quorum to review their license renewal applications. The licenses of PTS and the other channels are set to expire between this month and June. The National Communications Commission Organization Act (國家通訊傳播委員會組織法) stipulates that the commission must meet the mandated quorum of four to hold a valid meeting. The seven-member commission currently has only three commissioners. “We have informed the channel operators of the progress we have made in reviewing their license renewal applications, and
RSS