Chinese military expansion means that the US would have to fight “harder, quicker, nastier, deeper and longer” to protect Taiwan, a new analysis said, raising the specter that such a conflict could quickly go nuclear.
Written by Center for a New American Security fellow Elbridge Colby — a former US government defense and intelligence official — the analysis was published in National Interest magazine.
“In the past, most defense analysts and planners envisioned a Sino-American conflict in maritime Asia starting and remaining a conventional fight,” Colby wrote.
The US was seen as able to handle any Chinese attempts at power projection solely by relying on conventional forces, he said.
“In practical terms, the US would have been able to defeat Chinese attacks on Taiwan with relatively limited means and on Washington’s terms,” Colby added.
“Nuclear weapons, if they were to become involved, were seen as most likely to be introduced in limited numbers by the Chinese in a desperate attempt to stave off defeat in a Taiwan contingency, a defeat that might jeopardize the legitimacy of the Communist regime,” he wrote.
However, if China had the upper hand in a battle over Taiwan and the US still wanted to deter or defeat an attempted invasion of the nation, the US would need to be willing to hit targets deeper in China than had been envisioned before, he added.
They would have to strike sooner and expand the war considerably beyond Taiwan’s immediate environs to compel Beijing to back away, Colby said.
Such a scenario could lead to the use of nuclear weapons at a time when China’s nuclear arsenal is becoming larger and more sophisticated, he said.
Instead of only having the option of striking at a major US or Japanese city, China would increasingly gain the ability to target military facilities or forces in the region, Colby said.
“This ability to use nuclear weapons in more limited and tailored ways will make China’s threats — explicit or implicit — to use nuclear forces more credible,” he wrote.
Beijing might gain superiority in terms of conventional arms in the region and be able to block US efforts designed to defend Taiwan, Colby said.
As China grows more assertive, Asian nations traditionally allied to Washington “may ultimately see getting their own nuclear weapons as essential to deterring China’s exploitation of its growing strength,” he said.
Colby said this would almost certainly be the case if these nations viewed a weaker US as lacking the resolve or the ability to use its nuclear weapons.
“South Korea, Japan, Australia and Taiwan have seriously contemplated pursuing their own nuclear arsenals in the past and might do so again,” Colby wrote.
The more threatening Beijing appears, the less likely it is that the nuclear order of the Asia-Pacific will endure, Colby said.
‘DENIAL DEFENSE’: The US would increase its military presence with uncrewed ships, and submarines, while boosting defense in the Indo-Pacific, a Pete Hegseth memo said The US is reorienting its military strategy to focus primarily on deterring a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan, a memo signed by US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth showed. The memo also called on Taiwan to increase its defense spending. The document, known as the “Interim National Defense Strategic Guidance,” was distributed this month and detailed the national defense plans of US President Donald Trump’s administration, an article in the Washington Post said on Saturday. It outlines how the US can prepare for a potential war with China and defend itself from threats in the “near abroad,” including Greenland and the Panama
A magnitude 4.9 earthquake struck off Tainan at 11:47am today, the Central Weather Administration (CWA) said. The hypocenter was 32.3km northeast of Tainan City Hall at a depth of 7.3km, CWA data showed. The intensity of the quake, which gauges the actual effect of a seismic event, measured 4 in Tainan and Chiayi County on Taiwan's seven-tier intensity scale, the data showed. The quake had an intensity of 3 in Chiayi City and County, and Yunlin County, while it was measured as 2 in Kaohsiung, Nantou County, Changhua County, Taitung County and offshore Penghu County, the data showed. There were no immediate reports of
The Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) is maintaining close ties with Beijing, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) said yesterday, hours after a new round of Chinese military drills in the Taiwan Strait began. Political parties in a democracy have a responsibility to be loyal to the nation and defend its sovereignty, DPP spokesman Justin Wu (吳崢) told a news conference in Taipei. His comments came hours after Beijing announced via Chinese state media that the Chinese People’s Liberation Army’s Eastern Theater Command was holding large-scale drills simulating a multi-pronged attack on Taiwan. Contrary to the KMT’s claims that it is staunchly anti-communist, KMT Deputy
RESPONSE: The government would investigate incidents of Taiwanese entertainers in China promoting CCP propaganda online in contravention of the law, the source said Taiwanese entertainers living in China who are found to have contravened cross-strait regulations or collaborated with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) could be subject to fines, a source said on Sunday. Several Taiwanese entertainers have posted on the social media platform Sina Weibo saying that Taiwan “must be returned” to China, and sharing news articles from Chinese state media. In response, the Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) has asked the Ministry of Culture to investigate whether the entertainers had contravened any laws, and asked for them to be questioned upon their return to Taiwan, an official familiar with the matter said. To curb repeated