Submarine sales to Taiwan are “highly improbable,” a new commentary published by the US Council on Foreign Relations says.
“Transferring submarine technology to the island will take too long and cost the Taiwanese military far more than what it can afford,” council research associate Lauren Dickey said.
She said that the costs the US would incur to resurrect small numbers of diesel-powered submarines for Taipei would yield few benefits for the US military.
Dickey said that US submarine help to Taiwan would “tap into state of the art technology used in US nuclear-powered submarines” and that is not something the Pentagon would be eager to share with others.
“As Taiwanese military officials have an unfortunate history of passing classified military information into the hands of the People’s Liberation Army, Washington should remain cautious in transferring any sensitive technology or capabilities to Taiwan,” Dickey said.
She said that Germany, Japan and the Netherlands all produce small, diesel-electric submarines that would meet Taiwan’s needs, but that what holds these countries back from selling to Taiwan is the fear of economic or political fallout from Beijing.
“China has demonstrated time and time again an ability to impose political costs and threaten those that sell weapons to Taiwan,” Dickey said.
She also said that any submarines acquired by Taiwan may actually do more harm than good due to their vulnerabilities to existing Chinese weapons.
“Simply put, diesel submarines are not the effective defensive capability the island wants or needs,” Dickey said.
Rather, she said, Taiwan should strengthen its antisubmarine warfare capabilities and add to its fleet of 12 P-3 Orion antisubmarine aircraft, replacing its antiquated S-2 Tracker aircraft.
Dickey also recommended more land-based anti-ship missiles and high-speed multifunctional fast attack craft similar to the Type-022 Houbei class.
“In the case a more conservative government emerges after mid-term elections in November, or perhaps more importantly, a pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) government steps in to lead Taiwan in 2016, the need to re-evaluate Taiwan’s defense requests will persist, but for now, as Washington’s rebalance to Asia plays out, there is neither time nor money requisite to help the island develop its nascent submarine program,” she said.
Senior fellow on Asian military affairs at the International Assessment and Strategy Center (IASC) Richard Fisher strongly disagreed with a number of Dickey’s arguments.
He said the US was not limited to US nuclear submarine technology.
“The US developed the Barbel Class conventional submarine in the late 1950s and it was so advanced that it became the basis for Japan’s early classes of submarines. Washington could purchase Japan’s advanced version of the Barbel on behalf of Taiwan,” Fisher said.
Fisher said the US was the principal subcontractor for Australia’s Collins-class submarines, supplying combat systems. Washington could assist Taiwan’s current submarine plans in the same way, he said.
Turning to Dickey’s claims that submarines were too expensive for Taiwan, he said Taipei had settled on a small, but still tactically useful, though much less expensive submarine design.
“Submarines are very expensive, but the deterrent value they offer against China is well worth the price,” Fisher said.
He said that every weapon sold to Taiwan, or most other US allies, suffered under the threat of espionage.
“The US probably takes precautions that it would rather not disclose,” he said. “Americans have never shied away from selling arms and offering assistance, and we should not start when it comes to selling submarine technology to Taiwan.”
He said that any weapon that could defeat a Chinese invasion was what Taiwan needed right now.
“Submarines can hide, wait and sink the scores of large ships filled with the troops and tanks that would be used to invade Taiwan,” he said. “Missile emplacements and other elements can be attacked by Chinese missile and air power. They have to work much much harder to find Taiwan’s submarines.”
ANOTHER EMERGES: The CWA yesterday said this year’s fourth storm of the typhoon season had formed in the South China Sea, but was not expected to affect Taiwan Tropical Storm Gaemi has intensified slightly as it heads toward Taiwan, where it is expected to affect the country in the coming days, the Central Weather Administration (CWA) said yesterday. As of 8am yesterday, the 120km-radius storm was 800km southeast of Oluanpi (鵝鑾鼻), Taiwan’s southernmost tip, moving at 9kph northwest, the agency said. A sea warning for Gaemi could be issued tonight at the earliest, it said, adding that the storm is projected to be closest to Taiwan on Wednesday or Thursday. Gaemi’s potential effect on Taiwan remains unclear, as that would depend on its direction, radius and intensity, forecasters said. Former Weather Forecast
As COVID-19 cases in Japan have been increasing for 10 consecutive weeks, people should get vaccinated before visiting the nation, the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) said. The centers reported 773 hospitalizations and 124 deaths related to COVID-19 in Taiwan last week. CDC Epidemic Intelligence Center Director Guo Hung-wei (郭宏偉) on Tuesday said the number of weekly COVID-19 cases reported in Japan has been increasing since mid-May and surpassed 55,000 cases from July 8 to July 14. The average number of COVID-19 patients at Japan’s healthcare facilities that week was also 1.39 times that of the week before and KP.3 is the dominant
The Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) working group for Taiwan-related policies is likely to be upgraded to a committee-level body, a report commissioned by the Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) said. As Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) is increasingly likely to upgrade the CCP’s Central Leading Group for Taiwan Affairs, Taiwanese authorities should prepare by researching Xi and the CCP, the report said. At the third plenary session of the 20th Central Committee of the CCP, which ended on Thursday last week, the party set a target of 2029 for the completion of some tasks, meaning that Xi is likely preparing to
US-CHINA TRADE DISPUTE: Despite Beijing’s offer of preferential treatment, the lure of China has dimmed as Taiwanese and international investors move out Japan and the US have become the favored destinations for Taiwanese graduates as China’s attraction has waned over the years, the Ministry of Labor said. According to the ministry’s latest income and employment advisory published this month, 3,215 Taiwanese university graduates from the class of 2020 went to Japan, surpassing for the first time the 2,881 graduates who went to China. A total of 2,300 graduates from the class of 2021 went to the US, compared with the 2,262 who went to China, the document showed. The trend continued for the class of 2023, of whom 1,460 went to Japan, 1,334 went to