Submarine sales to Taiwan are “highly improbable,” a new commentary published by the US Council on Foreign Relations says.
“Transferring submarine technology to the island will take too long and cost the Taiwanese military far more than what it can afford,” council research associate Lauren Dickey said.
She said that the costs the US would incur to resurrect small numbers of diesel-powered submarines for Taipei would yield few benefits for the US military.
Dickey said that US submarine help to Taiwan would “tap into state of the art technology used in US nuclear-powered submarines” and that is not something the Pentagon would be eager to share with others.
“As Taiwanese military officials have an unfortunate history of passing classified military information into the hands of the People’s Liberation Army, Washington should remain cautious in transferring any sensitive technology or capabilities to Taiwan,” Dickey said.
She said that Germany, Japan and the Netherlands all produce small, diesel-electric submarines that would meet Taiwan’s needs, but that what holds these countries back from selling to Taiwan is the fear of economic or political fallout from Beijing.
“China has demonstrated time and time again an ability to impose political costs and threaten those that sell weapons to Taiwan,” Dickey said.
She also said that any submarines acquired by Taiwan may actually do more harm than good due to their vulnerabilities to existing Chinese weapons.
“Simply put, diesel submarines are not the effective defensive capability the island wants or needs,” Dickey said.
Rather, she said, Taiwan should strengthen its antisubmarine warfare capabilities and add to its fleet of 12 P-3 Orion antisubmarine aircraft, replacing its antiquated S-2 Tracker aircraft.
Dickey also recommended more land-based anti-ship missiles and high-speed multifunctional fast attack craft similar to the Type-022 Houbei class.
“In the case a more conservative government emerges after mid-term elections in November, or perhaps more importantly, a pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) government steps in to lead Taiwan in 2016, the need to re-evaluate Taiwan’s defense requests will persist, but for now, as Washington’s rebalance to Asia plays out, there is neither time nor money requisite to help the island develop its nascent submarine program,” she said.
Senior fellow on Asian military affairs at the International Assessment and Strategy Center (IASC) Richard Fisher strongly disagreed with a number of Dickey’s arguments.
He said the US was not limited to US nuclear submarine technology.
“The US developed the Barbel Class conventional submarine in the late 1950s and it was so advanced that it became the basis for Japan’s early classes of submarines. Washington could purchase Japan’s advanced version of the Barbel on behalf of Taiwan,” Fisher said.
Fisher said the US was the principal subcontractor for Australia’s Collins-class submarines, supplying combat systems. Washington could assist Taiwan’s current submarine plans in the same way, he said.
Turning to Dickey’s claims that submarines were too expensive for Taiwan, he said Taipei had settled on a small, but still tactically useful, though much less expensive submarine design.
“Submarines are very expensive, but the deterrent value they offer against China is well worth the price,” Fisher said.
He said that every weapon sold to Taiwan, or most other US allies, suffered under the threat of espionage.
“The US probably takes precautions that it would rather not disclose,” he said. “Americans have never shied away from selling arms and offering assistance, and we should not start when it comes to selling submarine technology to Taiwan.”
He said that any weapon that could defeat a Chinese invasion was what Taiwan needed right now.
“Submarines can hide, wait and sink the scores of large ships filled with the troops and tanks that would be used to invade Taiwan,” he said. “Missile emplacements and other elements can be attacked by Chinese missile and air power. They have to work much much harder to find Taiwan’s submarines.”
‘DENIAL DEFENSE’: The US would increase its military presence with uncrewed ships, and submarines, while boosting defense in the Indo-Pacific, a Pete Hegseth memo said The US is reorienting its military strategy to focus primarily on deterring a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan, a memo signed by US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth showed. The memo also called on Taiwan to increase its defense spending. The document, known as the “Interim National Defense Strategic Guidance,” was distributed this month and detailed the national defense plans of US President Donald Trump’s administration, an article in the Washington Post said on Saturday. It outlines how the US can prepare for a potential war with China and defend itself from threats in the “near abroad,” including Greenland and the Panama
The High Prosecutors’ Office yesterday withdrew an appeal against the acquittal of a former bank manager 22 years after his death, marking Taiwan’s first instance of prosecutors rendering posthumous justice to a wrongfully convicted defendant. Chu Ching-en (諸慶恩) — formerly a manager at the Taipei branch of BNP Paribas — was in 1999 accused by Weng Mao-chung (翁茂鍾), then-president of Chia Her Industrial Co, of forging a request for a fixed deposit of US$10 million by I-Hwa Industrial Co, a subsidiary of Chia Her, which was used as collateral. Chu was ruled not guilty in the first trial, but was found guilty
DEADLOCK: As the commission is unable to forum a quorum to review license renewal applications, the channel operators are not at fault and can air past their license date The National Communications Commission (NCC) yesterday said that the Public Television Service (PTS) and 36 other television and radio broadcasters could continue airing, despite the commission’s inability to meet a quorum to review their license renewal applications. The licenses of PTS and the other channels are set to expire between this month and June. The National Communications Commission Organization Act (國家通訊傳播委員會組織法) stipulates that the commission must meet the mandated quorum of four to hold a valid meeting. The seven-member commission currently has only three commissioners. “We have informed the channel operators of the progress we have made in reviewing their license renewal applications, and
A wild live dugong was found in Taiwan for the first time in 88 years, after it was accidentally caught by a fisher’s net on Tuesday in Yilan County’s Fenniaolin (粉鳥林). This is the first sighting of the species in Taiwan since 1937, having already been considered “extinct” in the country and considered as “vulnerable” by the International Union for Conservation of Nature. A fisher surnamed Chen (陳) went to Fenniaolin to collect the fish in his netting, but instead caught a 3m long, 500kg dugong. The fisher released the animal back into the wild, not realizing it was an endangered species at