It is essential for Washington to state publicly that it will defend Taiwan in all circumstances, a former Pentagon official said on Monday.
“There is a real danger of a drift into a conflict between the US and China,” former US Department of Defense East Asia specialist Joseph Bosco said. “Much of that danger stems from the uncertainty and ambiguity of each side’s intentions.”
Taiwan was the “prime example” of strategic ambiguity, he said.
Bosco was speaking at a press conference at the National Press Club in Washington called by George Washington University’s Institute for Communitarian Policy Studies on mutually assured restraint in US-China relations.
The conference released an initial statement on the subject by an ongoing task force of Chinese and US academics and policymakers.
George Washington University professor Amitai Etzioni, who chaired the conference, cited Taiwan as an example of mutually assured restraint.
He said there was an implicit understanding that China would not use military force to “reclaim Taiwan” and the US would not recognize Taiwan as an independent nation, but as Bosco demonstrated, task force members do not agree on everything.
“There is an implied message from the US to China that we will defend Taiwan from an attack by China,” he said. “The problem is that it has never been made explicit and certainly not put in writing.”
Bosco said that the Taiwan Relations Act placed an obligation on the US to assist Taiwan in acquiring articles of defense, but it did not explicitly state that the US would defend Taiwan.
“To me, that has been a danger and a harm to all three parties,” Bosco said.
He said that Taiwan was left with no certainty that it had a reliable ally in the US.
Meanwhile, the situation left the US in danger because China “seems to think it may be able to get away with something because of our lack of a clear commitment,” Bosco said.
China has been “led down this garden path” into thinking that if it acquired the right kind of attack submarines and anti-ship missiles “to hurt, harm or sink a US aircraft carrier,” it would deter the US from ever coming to Taiwan’s aid, he said.
However, the US has developed a concept of air-sea battle in such a way that China could no longer feel that it had deterred the US from defending Taiwan, he added.
“This back and forth over the last couple of decades is the result of strategic ambiguity,” Bosco said.
He said it was essential for Washington to publicly state that it would defend Taiwan in all circumstances, with the one “absurd” exception of Taiwan attacking China.
If Beijing were sure that the US would defend Taiwan, it would strengthen the hand of moderates in government who would then question the massive spending on arms, Bosco said.
He said they would argue that it was futile to spend millions on weapons systems that the US would ultimately overcome anyway.
Michael Swaine, a senior associate of the Asia Program at the Carnegie Endowment, said that the initial statement from the task force was just “a general starting point.”
He said he hoped that the task force would reduce the uncertainty between the US and China by bringing new clarity to some issues.
Referring to Bosco’s remarks, Swaine said: “Joe has just spoken eloquently about a certain type of policy towards Taiwan that he thinks would be helpful in stabilizing the situation. I disagree with elements of that and I have a different take on the Taiwan situation, but what motivates us both is a desire to seriously address some of the problems and try to get people thinking about ways to stabilize the competition between China and the US.”
He said that greater clarity and greater restraint was needed on both sides.
The statement issued by the task force said that it rejected the thesis that history dictates that when one nation rises in power, it will inevitably confront the nation in power and a war will ensue.
“We strongly believe that China and the US have many shared and complementary interests ... whatever differences exist between these two great nations and their allies, they can be resolved in a peaceful manner,” it said.
‘DENIAL DEFENSE’: The US would increase its military presence with uncrewed ships, and submarines, while boosting defense in the Indo-Pacific, a Pete Hegseth memo said The US is reorienting its military strategy to focus primarily on deterring a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan, a memo signed by US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth showed. The memo also called on Taiwan to increase its defense spending. The document, known as the “Interim National Defense Strategic Guidance,” was distributed this month and detailed the national defense plans of US President Donald Trump’s administration, an article in the Washington Post said on Saturday. It outlines how the US can prepare for a potential war with China and defend itself from threats in the “near abroad,” including Greenland and the Panama
A wild live dugong was found in Taiwan for the first time in 88 years, after it was accidentally caught by a fisher’s net on Tuesday in Yilan County’s Fenniaolin (粉鳥林). This is the first sighting of the species in Taiwan since 1937, having already been considered “extinct” in the country and considered as “vulnerable” by the International Union for Conservation of Nature. A fisher surnamed Chen (陳) went to Fenniaolin to collect the fish in his netting, but instead caught a 3m long, 500kg dugong. The fisher released the animal back into the wild, not realizing it was an endangered species at
The High Prosecutors’ Office yesterday withdrew an appeal against the acquittal of a former bank manager 22 years after his death, marking Taiwan’s first instance of prosecutors rendering posthumous justice to a wrongfully convicted defendant. Chu Ching-en (諸慶恩) — formerly a manager at the Taipei branch of BNP Paribas — was in 1999 accused by Weng Mao-chung (翁茂鍾), then-president of Chia Her Industrial Co, of forging a request for a fixed deposit of US$10 million by I-Hwa Industrial Co, a subsidiary of Chia Her, which was used as collateral. Chu was ruled not guilty in the first trial, but was found guilty
DEADLOCK: As the commission is unable to forum a quorum to review license renewal applications, the channel operators are not at fault and can air past their license date The National Communications Commission (NCC) yesterday said that the Public Television Service (PTS) and 36 other television and radio broadcasters could continue airing, despite the commission’s inability to meet a quorum to review their license renewal applications. The licenses of PTS and the other channels are set to expire between this month and June. The National Communications Commission Organization Act (國家通訊傳播委員會組織法) stipulates that the commission must meet the mandated quorum of four to hold a valid meeting. The seven-member commission currently has only three commissioners. “We have informed the channel operators of the progress we have made in reviewing their license renewal applications, and
RSS