If Taiwan does not become a member of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) it could become a much less important trading partner, a panel of experts said on Wednesday.
US economic interests find that it is “nice” to have Taiwan in the supply chain, but Taiwan could easily be squeezed out, said Derek Scissors, senior research fellow at the Heritage Foundation.
He said that if Japan, Malaysia and other regional trading nations win preferential treatment under the TPP then Taiwan “is going to get pushed out.”
This will be even more pronounced if South Korea decides to join the partnership.
“Taiwan needs to be a lot more aggressive than the island thinks,” he said.
It has a strong work force, good entrepreneurs and plenty of capital — but only 23 million people and no resources, Scissors said.
“Economics is all about looking at the available substitutes and Taiwan can be substituted real easy,” he said. “That is the fate of small countries.”
Scissors was a member of the panel organized by the foundation to discuss “Taiwan, Trade and the Trans-Pacific Partnership.”
In a statement announcing the panel, the foundation said that Taiwan’s economy would make it among the more developed in the 12 country TPP negotiations.
“It would seemingly stand to benefit from better integration into the global economy, especially in light of South Korea’s Free Trade Agreement with the US and other regional trade tie-ups,” the statement said.
However, the panel of experts agreed that it was unlikely that Taiwan would make the needed economic reforms to qualify for TPP membership any time soon.
Indeed, President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) has said that it will be eight years before the nation is ready to join the TPP.
The TPP is most likely not the answer for Taiwan — it is not ready to join the talks, said Jeffrey Schott, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.
The foundation has been pushing for Taiwan’s inclusion in the TPP, said moderator Walter Lohman, who is also the director of the Heritage Foundation’s Asian Studies Center.
Lohman said that it was not clear that the administration of US President Barack Obama would support Taiwan’s entry without some kind of greenlight from Beijing.
“As much as I hate to say that, it is probably the case,” he said.
Eight years is too long for Taiwan to wait for TPP membership, US-Taiwan Business Council president Rupert Hammond-Chambers said.
A shorter timeline is essential to ensure Taiwan “does not fall further into China’s economic sphere,” he said.
Hammond-Chambers predicted that Taiwan’s 2016 election was going to be “tight” and “right down to the wire.”
In these circumstances, it is “highly unlikely” that in its second term the Ma government would undertake the economic reforms needed to move closer to consideration for TPP membership, he said.
Scissors said there was a “major danger” not fully recognized in Taiwan that if the nation waited too long to make the reforms needed for TPP membership, it would “lose.”
As a result, Taiwan could be on its way to being cut out of regional trade even more than it is now, he said.
The TPP could hold “lots of benefits,” but if Taiwan does not become a member then the partnership could be a “threat,” he said.
“It is possible that it will do significant harm to Taiwan’s competitiveness with existing TPP countries,” Scissors said.
Honor guards are to stop performing changing of the guard ceremonies around a statue of Chiang Kai-shek (蔣介石) to avoid “worshiping authoritarianism,” the Ministry of Culture said yesterday. The fate of the bronze statue has long been the subject of fierce and polarizing debate in Taiwan, which has transformed from an autocracy under Chiang into one of Asia’s most vibrant democracies. The changing of the guard each hour at the Chiang Kai-shek Memorial Hall in Taipei is a major tourist attraction, but starting from 9am on Monday, the ceremony is to be moved outdoors to Democracy Boulevard, outside the eponymous blue-and-white memorial
The Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) supports peaceful unification with China, and President William Lai (賴清德) is “a bit naive” for being a “practical worker for Taiwanese independence,” former president Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) said in an interview published yesterday. Asked about whether the KMT is on the same page as the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) on the issue of Taiwanese independence or unification with China, Ma told the Malaysian Chinese-language newspaper Sin Chew Daily that they are not. While the KMT supports peaceful unification and is against unification by force, the DPP opposes unification as such and
The government would cancel kendo practitioner Su Yu-cheng’s (蘇郁程) nationality if he is confirmed to have represented China in the World Kendo Championships in Milan, Italy, last week, the Mainland Affairs Council said yesterday. “We have consulted the Sports Administration and were told that athletes participating in the championships must have the nationality of the country that they represent. They must also present their passports as proof,” council spokesperson Liang Wen-chieh (梁文傑) told a weekly news conference. “If Su indeed represented China in the championships, we suspect that he has obtained Chinese nationality.” The Act Governing Relations Between the People of the
FATAL ILLNESS: Untreated symptoms can rapidly worsen to complications such as high fever, seizures and loss of consciousness, and can be life-threatening, a doctor said Hospitals have been reporting dozens of people with heat-related illnesses every day over the past week, given continuous high daytime temperatures, so recognizing the early signs of heatstroke is crucial in preventing serious complications, a Taipei City Hospital emergency physician said. The Central Weather Administration yesterday issued a heat alert for 19 cities and counties across Taiwan, with temperatures in New Taipei City, Miaoli County and Pingtung County likely to exceed 38°C, and temperatures in 12 cities and counties likely to exceed 36°C for three days straight. More than a dozen people were taken to hospitals for heat-related illnesses every day from