Mon, Jan 16, 2012 page3

• 2012 ELECTIONS: INTERVIEW Political analyst foresees troubles ahead

  Following President Ma Ying-jeou’s re-election on Saturday, political analyst Nan Fang Shuo sat down with the ‘Liberty Times’ (the ‘Taipei Times’ sister paper) staff reporter, Tzou Jiing-wen, to discuss how Beijing will now apply more pressure and seek to reinforce the basic structure of the ‘one China’ framework, ensuring Taiwan is unable to escape the framework whoever becomes president in the future

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  Liberty Times (LT): How would you interpret the results of Saturday’s election?

  Nan Fang Shuo (南方朔): Everyone will probably look at the margin by which Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) won the election, but I would compare his final vote count on Saturday with what he got four years ago. Looked at that way, Ma actually lost about 1 million votes [Ma won by 2.2 million votes in 2008, while wining by 760,000 on Saturday] and [Ma’s Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) lost] 17 legislative seats as well. Yes, Ma won the elections, but only by a very slim margin.

  What I’m more worried about is that the government needs to enjoy the support of the majority of people to make big reforms. If this government only won the elections by a small margin, then it is less likely to be able to push through larger reforms or making large adjustments.

  

  Political commentator Nan Fang Shuo speaks during an interview with the Liberty Times yesterday.

  Photo: Liao Chen-huei, Taipei Times

  The 50-50 division of support for the political parties [KMT and Democratic Progressive Party (DPP)] that has been talked about used to be more conceptual, but after this election, it really is a 50-50 [split along the lines of support in] the public.

  In this kind of society it is hard to form a consensus, which can cause elements of internal division to grow, leaving the government with just one undivided power, its administrative power. He (Ma) might think that administrative power will make it easier to implement the policies he finds easiest to do and set aside the harder things. However, such an approach can only lead to trouble. Therefore, I am worried that it will be extremely difficult to re-adjust national [policy] direction and deepen political reforms over the next four years.

  Also, in this sort of society, it is easiest to follow the basic international trends: International bodies present a set condition and it becomes easier to do everything within those confines. However, it becomes very difficult to exceed these given condition and all society is forced to follow the international situation. Has this kind of situation not already appeared in Taiwan?

  LT: Are you referring to the growing influence of China over Taiwan?

  Nan Fang Shuo: Exactly. After the elections, I saw the headlines of a certain paper, and to be frank I felt uneasy seeing the title, which read: “We’ve Won, the ‘1992 consensus’ has won.”

  This shows that it [the consensus] is the one thing it [the Ma administration] is most smug about, and from this election we have also seen that the deciding factor at the end was the “stability card” that the “1992 consensus” offered.

  The reason I am worried is that I do not think that cross-strait relations over the next four years will be as stable as before. Everyone knows Beijing and Taipei have their own different understandings as to what the “1992 consensus” means. Putting aside the debate as to whether the “consensus” exists or not, it is itself inherently controversial, and yet we have seen businesspeople who are not clear about the situation come forward and talk about it.

  If you were in Beijing’s shoes after this election, wouldn’t you be worried that the situation in Taiwan could change in a moment; we [the Chinese] put a lot of effort into this “1992 consensus,” but now the KMT is being sly and dishonest. So I’m going to take advantage of the fact that Taiwan now is very weak and use the many goals and policies bundled into the “1992 consensus” and seek their implementation during the four years when you [Ma] are in power. Now that you have no more bargaining chips, and your business and cultural sectors are leaning evermore toward us [China] in the end you will have to accept many of the conditions that I [China] propose.

  Just a few days ago, Chinese President Hu Jintao (胡錦濤) delivered a New Year’s speech, including Taiwan and Hong Kong within the address, and he said something that was very interesting.

  Hu’s conclusion was peaceful unification and to have two systems under one nation. In other words, its direction is certain and I feel that over the next four years China will seek to strengthen the implementation of it Taiwan policy. Even if the [Ma] government wanted to resist, the chokehold [of the Chinese on Taiwan] would only grow tighter.

  In fact, Ma does not have the final say on whether we have peace; Beijing is calling all the shots, and if we want to resist that, then cross-strait relations would become more unstable.

  Beijing is well aware of the slyness of the Ma administration, and Beijing is not that stupid.

  In future, Beijing is unlikely to allow any reinforcements of the Republic of China’s [ROC] character as a nation by joining this or that [international organizations]. The Ma administration was under pressure from the DPP and had to maintain the stance [that the ROC is a sovereign independent nation], because if it backtracked on that position it would have lost the elections.

  However, now that the Ma administration is no longer facing the pressure of running for re-election and Beijing is on alert. Beijing is sure to reinforce the basic structure of its “one China” framework, and in the future no matter which party the president is from, there will be no escaping it.

  As such, we can expect more pressure from Beijing over the next four years, and however hard Ma resists it will be tough going, because without Beijing, Ma would be hard-pressed to have any political achievements.

  Cross-strait relations will not be as stable as Ma has said, and there is always the possibility of rising tensions.

  LT: It seems that the Beijing’s [“one China”] framework will have a high possibility of being “nailed down” in the future?

  Nan Fang Shuo: How is the KMT going to continue being sly? They have people going to Beijing very often, telling Beijing that: “We can’t say ‘one China’ in Taiwan, we won’t get votes. We’ll just say: ‘Each side with their own interpretation.” That’s how he pleads with people.

  The government officials in Beijing in charge of Taiwan affairs think that as long as nothing -happens across the Taiwan Strait, they would turn a blind eye to the issue. That’s how we slipped away in the past.

  However, after this election, with the gap closing between the two parties, I think Beijing would feel that if they don’t solidify the framework, it will one day become very problematic, so they will start building it now.

  LT: We thought in past that using economics to influence politics was only a slogan, but we saw with our own eyes the actual effects of such a strategy in this election. What are your views on this trend?

  Nan Fang Shuo: Taiwan is in essence a commercial society. I don’t feel Taiwan is a particularly strong society in terms of subjectivity, so the “economic voters” among the populace would in the end have some effect, because the corporation owners and tycoons would have more influence.

  I’m more worried that these corporate businesspeople don’t have a strong self-identity and would always follow the “trend,” going wherever there’s money to be made. The influence of businesspeople on governments, whether on foreign or domestic policy, would grow more. I feel that when a society begins to change, businesspeople would exert a great amount of influence based on their profits and in this election we saw that happening.

  LT: Does a society where businesspeople [harbor the notion of] having no homeland signal that Taiwan is following in the steps of Hong Kong?

  Nan Fang Shuo: That would depend on the definition of sovereignty embraced by society. My concept is that the final decision on cross-strait relations should be decided by the DPP, because it pays more attention to the issue of sovereignty and would consider the interests of the majority. This is what I said in Beijing as well. Beijing should not be fighting to win over the KMT; the DPP’s words are what count, the KMT’s don’t, because the majority of Taiwan’s people would not agree.

  LT: Under such a fragile power structure, would issues such as the wealth gap, justice and equality over which we have long been concerned be even more problematic?

  Nan Fang Shuo: I’m afraid they will. Because of the strong support the KMT receives from businesspeople, it will find it hard to levy more taxes on businesses. I am afraid that if the government doesn’t get the support of businesspeople, it might resort to printing money and Taiwan’s finances would worsen.

  LT: The primary oversight of government is the responsibility of the party in opposition. What suggestions do you have for the DPP?

  Nan Fang Shuo: I always had something to say about the DPP. There are really very few people like Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) in the DPP. Most party members who have started out in public service have a very insular outlook, and when thinking about problems that are on a higher level, they’re just simply not there yet. Others who are educated have become very radical, perhaps from being oppressed in the past.

  If the DPP really wants to change, then it needs to change the structure of its very top leadership.

  They need a leadership that is educated, more genteel, experienced in international affairs and knows how to handle situations — both tense and every day. If the DPP can find people like that, then it would public perception would quickly change. It is vital that the DPP do everything it can to expand its membership among the highly educated.

  Translated by Jake Chung, Staff Writer
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