Listing Taiwan as a candidate for the US’ Visa Waiver Program (VWP) demonstrates the “clear preference” of the administration of US President Barack Obama for President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) over Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) in the Jan. 14 presidential election, US academic Bonnie Glaser said.
Glaser, a senior fellow in the Freeman Chair in China Studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, posted an online article titled “US Prefers Ma, but Will Work with Tsai” after the American Institute in Taiwan on Thursday announced the long-awaited nomination of Taiwan for inclusion in the VWP.
The announcement, along with other steps taken by the Obama administration, including sending high ranking officials to visit Taiwan in recent months, “calls into question the Obama administration’s claim to being neutral about the election’s outcome,” Glaser said.
“Although US officials studiously avoid saying so directly, there is a clear preference for Ma Ying-jeou to win a second term in office,” she said.
Glaser said that the US worries about a DPP victory partly because of its experience with former president Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁), who pursued pro-independence measures that Beijing judged to be provocative, resulting in heightened tensions in both cross-strait and US-China relations.
Even though the DPP and Tsai have learned lessons from that period, “the US still has lingering worries,” she said. “Tsai’s unwillingness to be forthcoming about concrete policies toward the Mainland that she would pursue if elected has exacerbated Washington’s concerns.”
Glaser said that Obama administration officials’ preference for a Ma victory is also a consequence of their desire to avoid introducing additional contentious issues to the increasingly complicated US-China agenda wherein a long list of issues have caused high tensions between the two in recent years.
“Past experience demonstrates that when Chinese fears of Taiwan independence spike, other issues are crowded out in US-Chinese consultations, making compromises and solving problems even more difficult than usual,” Glaser said.
US arms sales to Taiwan in January last year and September infuriated China and soured US-China relations, but the impact was relatively confined and short lived compared with the likely Chinese reaction to the return of the DPP to power, she said.
If Tsai wins, Glaser said US-Taiwan relations are likely to “remain positive and strong” in the absence of policy steps by Taiwan that damage US interest in the maintenance of cross-strait peace and stability, regardless of whether Beijing and Taipei are able to work out a modus vivendi.
The US will do its utmost to encourage the DPP to be pragmatic in its approach to Beijing, while at the same time pressing China to be flexible as well, she said.
“If Chinese leaders assume that the US will reflexively revert to the old playbook that was employed during the [former US president George W.] Bush administration to cope with Chen Shui-bian to manage a new situation, they would be mistaken,” she said.
The US would likely undertake “active diplomacy” to urge Taiwan and China to find a creative way forward that enables the numerous cross-strait communications channels that have been established in recent years to continue to function, she said.
Washington might see advantages in a Ma victory, but it would also look forward and seek to work with Tsai to develop a positive relationship and sustain robust ties, she added.
Several Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) officials including Chairman Eric Chu (朱立倫) are to be summoned for questioning and then transferred to prosecutors for holding an illegal assembly in Taipei last night, the Taipei Police said today. Chu and two others hosted an illegal assembly and are to be requested to explain their actions, the Taipei City Police Department's Zhongzheng (中正) First Precinct said, referring to a protest held after Huang Lu Chin-ju (黃呂錦茹), KMT Taipei's chapter director, and several other KMT staffers were questioned for alleged signature forgery in recall petitions against Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) legislators. Taipei prosecutors had filed
Taiwan would welcome the return of Honduras as a diplomatic ally if its next president decides to make such a move, Minister of Foreign Affairs Lin Chia-lung (林佳龍) said yesterday. “Of course, we would welcome Honduras if they want to restore diplomatic ties with Taiwan after their elections,” Lin said at a meeting of the legislature’s Foreign Affairs and National Defense Committee, when asked to comment on statements made by two of the three Honduran presidential candidates during the presidential campaign in the Central American country. Taiwan is paying close attention to the region as a whole in the wake of a
President William Lai (賴清德) has appointed former vice president Chen Chien-jen (陳建仁) to attend the late Pope Francis’ funeral at the Vatican City on Saturday on his behalf, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said today. The Holy See announced Francis’ funeral would take place on Saturday at 10am in St Peter’s Square. The ministry expressed condolences over Francis’ passing and said that Chen would represent Taiwan at the funeral and offer condolences in person. Taiwan and the Vatican have a long-standing and close diplomatic relationship, the ministry said. Both sides agreed to have Chen represent Taiwan at the funeral, given his Catholic identity and
NEW WORLD: Taiwan is pursuing innovative approaches to international relations through economics, trade and values-based diplomacy, the foreign minister said Taiwan would implement a “three-chain strategy” that promotes democratic values in response to US tariffs, Minister of Foreign Affairs Lin Chia-lung (林佳龍) said. Taiwan would aim to create a “global democratic value chain,” seek to capitalize on its position within the first island chain and promote a “non-red supply chain,” Lin was quoted as saying in the ministry’s written report to the Legislative Yuan submitted ahead of the legislature’s Foreign Affairs and National Defense Committee meeting slated for today. The Ministry would also uphold a spirit of mutual beneficial collaboration, maintaining close communication and consultations with Washington to show that Taiwan-US cooperation