A new study by the Washington-based Jamestown Foundation concludes that despite the political heat being generated by Taiwan’s presidential election, “there appears to be a degree of convergence in the cross-strait policies of the two parties.”
“The outpouring of media attention on Taiwan’s elections has distorted public perception, since much of the public discussions have been guided by subjective interpretations that fuel misconceptions regarding the degree of polarization in Taiwanese politics,” it says.
Written by Russell Hsiao, a research fellow at the Project 2049 Institute, the study says the race between President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) of the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and Democratic Progressive Party Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) remains too close to call.
“Whether President Ma wins a second term or Taiwanese voters decide to give the DPP a second chance, the driving force is becoming less and less about independence or unification,” the study says.
“The DPP’s cross-strait policy is a clear reflection of that trend,” Hsiao writes.
“In either case, Taiwan is not on an inevitable path of reunification under the People’s Republic of China nor is it headed in an inseparable path toward independence,” he says.
Hsiao concludes that the tight race, coupled with the fact that an overwhelming majority of Taiwanese voters prefer the “status quo,” means that voters will not accept — nor could any political party commit to — making any “dramatic shift.”
Hsiao says there has been a fundamental shift in Taiwanese politics since 2008.
“Democratization in Taiwan and its elections in particular — which some observers have come to see as a flash point of instability — appear to have become a stabilizing force for cross-strait relations,” he writes.
“The sooner Washington and Beijing start listening to Taiwanese voters and stop treating each presidential election in Taiwan as a zero-sum game, the faster Taiwan’s democratic consolidation could turn out to be the silver lining for Washington and Beijing for ensuring a peaceful and stable cross-strait environment,” he writes.
Hsiao says that an analysis of recent polls in Taiwan shows that despite the rapid expansion of cross-strait ties under the KMT government — which include seven rounds of cross-strait talks, 16 agreements and one “consensus” on Chinese investment in Taiwan — the people “still overwhelmingly prefer the status quo to any alternatives.”
“Furthermore, this trend suggests fears over increasing economic integration between Taiwan and China would lead to political integration have not materialized in the past four years,” he says.
“Whether it will in the long term remains to be seen. The short and medium term trends, however, indicate there is at best a weak correlation between increasing economic ties and a change in the people’s preference for independence or unification,” he writes.
It appears increasingly clear, he says, that unilateral changes by either party toward unification or independence would not be widely supported by voters.
Unless Beijing decides to intimidate Taiwanese voters by launching missile tests over the Taiwan Strait as they did in the 1995-1996 missile crises, or renounce the use of force and withdraw the array of missiles now threatening the island, or if Washington revokes the Taiwan Relations Act, the status quo is likely to remain as it is for the foreseeable future, the Jamestown study says.
People can take the Taipei MRT free of charge if they access it at Nanjing Sanmin Station or Taipei Arena Station on the Green Line between 12am and 6am on Jan. 1, the Taipei Department of Transportation said on Friday, outlining its plans to ease crowding during New Year’s events in the capital. More than 200,000 people are expected to attend New Year’s Eve events in Taipei, with singer A-mei (張惠妹) performing at the Taipei Dome and the city government’s New Year’s Eve party at Taipei City Hall Plaza, the department said. As people have tended to use the MRT’s Blue or
Civil society groups yesterday protested outside the Legislative Yuan, decrying Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) efforts to pass three major bills that they said would seriously harm Taiwan’s democracy, and called to oust KMT caucus whip Fu Kun-chi (傅?萁). It was the second night of the three-day “Bluebird wintertime action” protests in Taipei, with organizers announcing that 8,000 people attended. Organized by Taiwan Citizen Front, the Economic Democracy Union (EDU) and a coalition of civil groups, about 6,000 people began a demonstration in front of KMT party headquarters in Taipei on Wednesday, organizers said. For the third day, the organizers asked people to assemble
Taipei is participating in Osaka’s Festival of Lights this year, with a 3m-tall bubble tea light installation symbolizing Taiwan’s bubble tea culture. The installation is designed as a bubble tea cup and features illustrations of Taipei’s iconic landmarks, such as Taipei 101, the Red House and North Gate, as well as soup dumplings and the matchmaking deity the Old Man Under the Moon (月下老人), affectionately known as Yue Lao (月老). Taipei and Osaka have collaborated closely on tourism and culture since Taipei first participated in the festival in 2018, the Taipei City Department of Information and Tourism said. In February, Osaka represented
Taiwanese professional baseball should update sports stadiums and boost engagement to enhance fans’ experience, Chinese Professional Baseball League (CPBL) commissioner Tsai Chi-chang (蔡其昌) told the Liberty Times (sister paper of the Taipei Times) in an interview on Friday. The league has urged Farglory Group and the Taipei City Government to improve the Taipei Dome’s outdated equipment, including relatively rudimentary television and sound systems, and poor technology, he said. The Tokyo Dome has markedly better television and sound systems, despite being 30 years old, because its managers continually upgraded its equipment, Tsai said. In contrast, the Taipei Dome lacked even a room for referees
RSS