Former US national security adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski predicts in a new essay that “it is doubtful” Taiwan could indefinitely avoid a more formal connection with China.
The essay, “Balancing the East, Upgrading the West,” to be published in Foreign Affairs magazine next month, says that the future status of Taiwan could become the most contentious issue between the US and China.
It says that assuming the expansion of the bilateral US--Chinese relationship, three sensitive issues will have to be peacefully resolved.
Brzezinski says first — and in the near future — the US should reassess its reconnaissance operations “on the edges of Chinese territorial waters,” as well as the periodic US naval patrols within international waters that are also part of the Chinese economic zone.
“They are as provocative to Beijing as the reverse situation would be to Washington. Moreover, the US military’s air reconnaissance missions pose serious risks of unintentional collisions, since the Chinese air force usually responds to such missions by sending up fighter planes for up-close inspection and sometimes harassment of the US planes,” he wrote.
Next on Brzezinski’s short list, he says that over the course of the next several years the US and China should engage in regular consultations regarding their long-term military planning and seek to “craft measures of reciprocal reassurance.”
Third, “probably within a decade or so,” he wants to see the future of Taiwan settled.
“Washington no longer recognizes Taiwan as a sovereign state and acknowledges Beijing’s view that China and Taiwan are part of a single nation, but at the same time, the United States sells weapons to Taiwan. Thus, any long-term US-Chinese accommodation will have to address the fact that a separate Taiwan, protected indefinitely by US arms sales, will provoke intensifying Chinese -hostility,” Brzezinski writes.
He believes that an eventual resolution along the lines of the formula for Hong Kong of “one country, two systems,” but redefined as “one country, several systems” may provide the basis for what he calls “Taipei’s eventual reassociation with China.”
Such a formula, Brzezinski says, would allow Taiwan and China to maintain distinctive political, social and military arrangements, in particular excluding the deployment of People’s Liberation Army troops on Taiwan.
“Regardless of the exact formula, given China’s growing power and the greatly expanding social links between Taiwan and the mainland, it is doubtful that Taiwan can indefinitely avoid a more formal connection with China,” he wrote.
Brzezinski was US national security adviser under then-US president Jimmy Carter from 1977 to 1981.
The essay is adapted from his book Strategic Vision: America and the Crisis of Global Power, which is scheduled to be published early next year by Basic Books.
Earlier this year, Brzezinski said that if the US became less involved on the international scene, Taiwan would find it increasingly difficult to resist the entreaties and pressure from Beijing, and it would become part of China.
“It is something that will work out on the basis of what happens ultimately in the grand relationship between China and America, which in turn is dependent on the degree to which each of them stays healthy, effective, responsible and rational, and that is something that no one can predict with any degree of certainty,” he said.
Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Chairman Eric Chu (朱立倫), spokeswoman Yang Chih-yu (楊智伃) and Legislator Hsieh Lung-chieh (謝龍介) would be summoned by police for questioning for leading an illegal assembly on Thursday evening last week, Minister of the Interior Liu Shyh-fang (劉世芳) said today. The three KMT officials led an assembly outside the Taipei City Prosecutors’ Office, a restricted area where public assembly is not allowed, protesting the questioning of several KMT staff and searches of KMT headquarters and offices in a recall petition forgery case. Chu, Yang and Hsieh are all suspected of contravening the Assembly and Parade Act (集會遊行法) by holding
PRAISE: Japanese visitor Takashi Kubota said the Taiwanese temple architecture images showcased in the AI Art Gallery were the most impressive displays he saw Taiwan does not have an official pavilion at the World Expo in Osaka, Japan, because of its diplomatic predicament, but the government-backed Tech World pavilion is drawing interest with its unique recreations of works by Taiwanese artists. The pavilion features an artificial intelligence (AI)-based art gallery showcasing works of famous Taiwanese artists from the Japanese colonial period using innovative technologies. Among its main simulated displays are Eastern gouache paintings by Chen Chin (陳進), Lin Yu-shan (林玉山) and Kuo Hsueh-hu (郭雪湖), who were the three young Taiwanese painters selected for the East Asian Painting exhibition in 1927. Gouache is a water-based
Taiwan would welcome the return of Honduras as a diplomatic ally if its next president decides to make such a move, Minister of Foreign Affairs Lin Chia-lung (林佳龍) said yesterday. “Of course, we would welcome Honduras if they want to restore diplomatic ties with Taiwan after their elections,” Lin said at a meeting of the legislature’s Foreign Affairs and National Defense Committee, when asked to comment on statements made by two of the three Honduran presidential candidates during the presidential campaign in the Central American country. Taiwan is paying close attention to the region as a whole in the wake of a
OFF-TARGET: More than 30,000 participants were expected to take part in the Games next month, but only 6,550 foreign and 19,400 Taiwanese athletes have registered Taipei city councilors yesterday blasted the organizers of next month’s World Masters Games over sudden timetable and venue changes, which they said have caused thousands of participants to back out of the international sporting event, among other organizational issues. They also cited visa delays and political interference by China as reasons many foreign athletes are requesting refunds for the event, to be held from May 17 to 30. Jointly organized by the Taipei and New Taipei City governments, the games have been rocked by numerous controversies since preparations began in 2020. Taipei City Councilor Lin Yen-feng (林延鳳) said yesterday that new measures by