Underground gambling circles, often regarded as unofficial support polls, have been changing the betting rules in recent months ahead of what is shaping up to be a very close January presidential election.
Bettors say the rules ordained by dealers are changing because the gap between Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) presidential candidate Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) and Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) Chairperson and candidate Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) is closing.
Previously, bids favored Ma defeating Tsai by 800,000 votes, but as of Wednesday, bids for Ma beating Tsai had shrunk to a lead of between 100,000 and 150,000 votes.
With the majority of central and southern Taiwan betting on Tsai, dealers are also considering opening bets on a possible tie between the two.
Other dealers have placed conditional betting, saying that if People First Party Chairman and presidential candidate James Soong (宋楚瑜) dropped out of the race, all bets would be annulled.
Dealers make up a complex assortment of people. Some are gang members and use their influence in the underworld to control elections to a certain extent. Others are people’s representatives, manipulating the elections through underground betting to support their own political parties. Some are simply wealthy.
Underground gambling is usually geared toward who leads over whom by how many votes, earning the underground gambling circles both the name of a “freak child” of Taiwan’s election-centric politics and also an indicator of political support.
The political inclinations of dealers and gamblers have a certain influence on politics. If, for example, a bet says A would beat B by X votes, but gamblers who favor A feel that A would not beat B by so many votes, the gamblers would therefore bet on B and would vote for B in the elections to win money.
Some gamblers also try to influence their own friends and family to vote for the candidate they betted on, a dealer said, which might have an impact on the elections.
One dealer in central Taiwan said Tsai’s nearly blank political record makes it hard for the pan-blue camp to dig up dirt on her, adding that the controversy over DPP vice presidential candidate Su Jia-chyuan’s (蘇嘉全) farmhouse had blown over and that the success of the “three little pigs” campaign, the Ma administration’s peace accord proposal and the controversial Dreamers (夢想家) drama continued to batter Ma’s election efforts.
The changes in betting patterns also show public optimism about Tsai’s chances of winning the presidency.
A Chiayi resident and a longtime observer of underground political gambling said that despite the narrowing gap between Ma and Tsai, the KMT’s ability to mobilize support and its wealth meant that the latest gambling rules still favored Ma leading Tsai, though Ma’s lead would continue to drop, to the point where bets on a tie could open.
To minimize the effects of illegal betting on the elections, some police departments, including the Greater Taichung Police Department, have given orders to clamp down on gambling on the presidential race.
Police said that based on past experience, there would be people who try to manipulate elections through gambling.
Although there have been rumors of underground gambling circles, police said that with some people placing bets via the Internet, it has become more difficult for them to gather information and clamp down on such activities.
Translated by Jake Chung, Staff writer
The Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) today condemned the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) after the Czech officials confirmed that Chinese agents had surveilled Vice President Hsiao Bi-khim (蕭美琴) during her visit to Prague in March last year. Czech Military Intelligence director Petr Bartovsky yesterday said that Chinese operatives had attempted to create the conditions to carry out a demonstrative incident involving Hsiao, going as far as to plan a collision with her car. Hsiao was vice president-elect at the time. The MAC said that it has requested an explanation and demanded a public apology from Beijing. The CCP has repeatedly ignored the desires
Many Chinese spouses required to submit proof of having renounced their Chinese household registration have either completed the process or provided affidavits ahead of the June 30 deadline, the Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) said on Thursday. Of the 12,146 people required to submit the proof, 5,534 had done so as of Wednesday, MAC deputy head and spokesperson Liang Wen-chieh (梁文傑) said. Another 2,572 people who met conditions for exemption or deferral from submitting proof of deregistration — such as those with serious illnesses or injuries — have submitted affidavits instead, he said. “As long as individuals are willing to cooperate with the legal
The Ma-anshan Nuclear Power Plant’s license has expired and it cannot simply be restarted, the Executive Yuan said today, ahead of national debates on the nuclear power referendum. The No. 2 reactor at the Ma-anshan Nuclear Power Plant in Pingtung County was disconnected from the nation’s power grid and completely shut down on May 17, the day its license expired. The government would prioritize people’s safety and conduct necessary evaluations and checks if there is a need to extend the service life of the reactor, Executive Yuan spokeswoman Michelle Lee (李慧芝) told a news conference. Lee said that the referendum would read: “Do
The Ministry of Environment yesterday held a seminar in Taipei for experts from Taiwan and Japan to exchange their experiences on the designs and development of public toilets. Japan Toilet Association chairman Kohei Yamamoto said that he was impressed with the eco-toilet set up at Daan Forest Park, adding that Japan still faces issues regarding public restrooms despite the progress it made over the past decades. For example, an all-gender toilet was set up in Kabukicho in Tokyo’s Shinjuku District several years ago, but it caused a public backlash and was rebuilt into traditional men’s and women’s toilets, he said. Japan Toilet Association
RSS