Underground gambling circles, often regarded as unofficial support polls, have been changing the betting rules in recent months ahead of what is shaping up to be a very close January presidential election.
Bettors say the rules ordained by dealers are changing because the gap between Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) presidential candidate Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) and Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) Chairperson and candidate Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) is closing.
Previously, bids favored Ma defeating Tsai by 800,000 votes, but as of Wednesday, bids for Ma beating Tsai had shrunk to a lead of between 100,000 and 150,000 votes.
With the majority of central and southern Taiwan betting on Tsai, dealers are also considering opening bets on a possible tie between the two.
Other dealers have placed conditional betting, saying that if People First Party Chairman and presidential candidate James Soong (宋楚瑜) dropped out of the race, all bets would be annulled.
Dealers make up a complex assortment of people. Some are gang members and use their influence in the underworld to control elections to a certain extent. Others are people’s representatives, manipulating the elections through underground betting to support their own political parties. Some are simply wealthy.
Underground gambling is usually geared toward who leads over whom by how many votes, earning the underground gambling circles both the name of a “freak child” of Taiwan’s election-centric politics and also an indicator of political support.
The political inclinations of dealers and gamblers have a certain influence on politics. If, for example, a bet says A would beat B by X votes, but gamblers who favor A feel that A would not beat B by so many votes, the gamblers would therefore bet on B and would vote for B in the elections to win money.
Some gamblers also try to influence their own friends and family to vote for the candidate they betted on, a dealer said, which might have an impact on the elections.
One dealer in central Taiwan said Tsai’s nearly blank political record makes it hard for the pan-blue camp to dig up dirt on her, adding that the controversy over DPP vice presidential candidate Su Jia-chyuan’s (蘇嘉全) farmhouse had blown over and that the success of the “three little pigs” campaign, the Ma administration’s peace accord proposal and the controversial Dreamers (夢想家) drama continued to batter Ma’s election efforts.
The changes in betting patterns also show public optimism about Tsai’s chances of winning the presidency.
A Chiayi resident and a longtime observer of underground political gambling said that despite the narrowing gap between Ma and Tsai, the KMT’s ability to mobilize support and its wealth meant that the latest gambling rules still favored Ma leading Tsai, though Ma’s lead would continue to drop, to the point where bets on a tie could open.
To minimize the effects of illegal betting on the elections, some police departments, including the Greater Taichung Police Department, have given orders to clamp down on gambling on the presidential race.
Police said that based on past experience, there would be people who try to manipulate elections through gambling.
Although there have been rumors of underground gambling circles, police said that with some people placing bets via the Internet, it has become more difficult for them to gather information and clamp down on such activities.
Translated by Jake Chung, Staff writer
Beijing could eventually see a full amphibious invasion of Taiwan as the only "prudent" way to bring about unification, the US Department of Defense said in a newly released annual report to Congress. The Pentagon's "Annual Report to Congress: Military and Security Developments Involving the People's Republic of China 2025," was in many ways similar to last year’s report but reorganized the analysis of the options China has to take over Taiwan. Generally, according to the report, Chinese leaders view the People's Liberation Army's (PLA) capabilities for a Taiwan campaign as improving, but they remain uncertain about its readiness to successfully seize
Taiwan is getting a day off on Christmas for the first time in 25 years. The change comes after opposition parties passed a law earlier this year to add or restore five public holidays, including Constitution Day, which falls on today, Dec. 25. The day marks the 1947 adoption of the constitution of the Republic of China, as the government in Taipei is formally known. Back then the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) governed China from Nanjing. When the KMT, now an opposition party in Taiwan, passed the legislation on holidays, it said that they would help “commemorate the history of national development.” That
Taiwan has overtaken South Korea this year in per capita income for the first time in 23 years, IMF data showed. Per capita income is a nation’s GDP divided by the total population, used to compare average wealth levels across countries. Taiwan also beat Japan this year on per capita income, after surpassing it for the first time last year, US magazine Newsweek reported yesterday. Across Asia, Taiwan ranked fourth for per capita income at US$37,827 this year due to sustained economic growth, the report said. In the top three spots were Singapore, Macau and Hong Kong, it said. South
HORROR STORIES: One victim recounted not realizing they had been stabbed and seeing people bleeding, while another recalled breaking down in tears after fleeing A man on Friday died after he tried to fight the knife-wielding suspect who went on a stabbing spree near two of Taipei’s busiest metro stations, Taipei Mayor Chiang Wan-an (蔣萬安) said. The 57-year-old man, identified by his family name, Yu (余), encountered the suspect at Exit M7 of Taipei Main Station and immediately tried to stop him, but was fatally wounded and later died, Chiang said, calling the incident “heartbreaking.” Yu’s family would receive at least NT$5 million (US$158,584) in compensation through the Taipei Rapid Transit Corp’s (TRTC) insurance coverage, he said after convening an emergency security response meeting yesterday morning. National
RSS