A leading US academic is predicting that as Taiwan moves closer to China under the policies of President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九), Taipei’s “freedom of action” will erode.
Robert Sutter of George Washington University told a conference titled “The Future of US-Taiwan Relations” that there is a dark underside to the very positive sentiments that are expressed toward Taiwan by Washington.
“There is a lot of good feeling for Taiwan in Washington, but underneath this positive dynamic, Taiwan’s freedom of action is eroding,” he said.
“It cannot reverse its path. That’s the basic conclusion that I have come to,” he said.
Sutter said that the current trends in cross-strait relations were likely to continue and that a “break” was unlikely because the trends were perceived to be in the best interests of Taiwan, the US and China.
He told the conference, organized by the Washington-based Center for National Policy, that the Ma administration had provided decision-makers in all three countries with “a great sense of relief” from the anxiety and danger that emanated from former president Chen Shui-bian’s (陳水扁) “less China-friendly” policies.
At the same time, however, China’s strategic influence over Taiwan had become “enormous” and Taiwan had become “intimidated.” Also, Taiwan had become economically dependent on China and needed China’s permission to expand its international space, he said.
In a printed analysis handed out during the conference, Sutter said: “Close examination shows that public support given by the [US President] Barack Obama government for Ma’s cross-strait policies fails to hide the reduced overall US backing for Taiwan, especially for actions that risk complicating US-China relations for the sake of shoring up support for Taiwan.”
Even if the Democratic Progressive Party won the presidential election in January, Sutter said the party was moving toward the center and while the Taiwan-China relationship might stall for a while, there would be no fundamental break.
“Chinese leverage over Taiwan is growing every day,” he said.
The US wanted to deter China from attacking Taiwan, but at the same time it also wanted to keep the process moving toward an eventual settlement.
The US Congress, he said, would “posture in a certain way” on Taiwan’s behalf, but if things became dangerous they would pull back. Washington, he said, still had a strong determination to help Taiwan, but there was a reluctance to act.
“This administration is re--engaging with Asia big time, but where is Taiwan? It’s not mentioned. It’s not part of it. It’s not there,” he said. “The administration is full of good people. They like Taiwan [and] if China attacks Taiwan, they will be there.”
However, he said that if Taiwan moved in a direction that was not “keeping the engagement going with China,” US support would be thin.
“This pattern of growing ties between China and Taiwan is fully supported by the United States,” he said.
And he stressed that the pattern inevitably narrowed Taiwan’s freedom of action.
“They are just not going to be able to do a lot of the things they used to do and frankly, a lot of this is because they don’t want to. They don’t want to spend money on defense. They don’t want to lose out on the economic advantages of dealing with China,” he said.
“When we reach a point where Taiwan moves in a direction with China that surprises people, when it moves ahead, there might be some people who will point fingers and ask who lost Taiwan. We are all complicit in this. Unless we are out there strongly protesting what is going on — and I don’t see anybody doing that — we are all participants,” Sutter added.
Reminded that a substantial number of members of both houses of Congress had recently written to Obama urging him to sell F-16C/D aircraft to Taiwan, Sutter said that most people he talked to believed the president would agree to upgrade Taiwan’s older F-16A/B aircraft, but would not sell Taiwan the much needed F-16C/Ds.
He said that the upgrades would probably satisfy a lot of the members of Congress who signed the letters supporting F-16C/D sales.
“Yes, Congress likes Taiwan and when the president of Taiwan wants something, they support it, but what they are prepared to do about it if there is a big blow up with China, I am not sure,” he said.
However, he said, the F-16C/D sale was not “on the cards” anyway and so the congressional letters to Obama were “not a real test of how strong sentiment over Taiwan really is or isn’t.”
In response to other questions, Sutter said that he thought Taiwan and China were heading toward a convergence.
“Is this bad for the United States? I don’t think so. It doesn’t have to be if it is peaceful. If Taiwan says, ‘This is what we want,’ what is the US supposed to do — say we object?” he said.
The Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) today condemned the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) after the Czech officials confirmed that Chinese agents had surveilled Vice President Hsiao Bi-khim (蕭美琴) during her visit to Prague in March last year. Czech Military Intelligence director Petr Bartovsky yesterday said that Chinese operatives had attempted to create the conditions to carry out a demonstrative incident involving Hsiao, going as far as to plan a collision with her car. Hsiao was vice president-elect at the time. The MAC said that it has requested an explanation and demanded a public apology from Beijing. The CCP has repeatedly ignored the desires
Many Chinese spouses required to submit proof of having renounced their Chinese household registration have either completed the process or provided affidavits ahead of the June 30 deadline, the Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) said on Thursday. Of the 12,146 people required to submit the proof, 5,534 had done so as of Wednesday, MAC deputy head and spokesperson Liang Wen-chieh (梁文傑) said. Another 2,572 people who met conditions for exemption or deferral from submitting proof of deregistration — such as those with serious illnesses or injuries — have submitted affidavits instead, he said. “As long as individuals are willing to cooperate with the legal
The Ma-anshan Nuclear Power Plant’s license has expired and it cannot simply be restarted, the Executive Yuan said today, ahead of national debates on the nuclear power referendum. The No. 2 reactor at the Ma-anshan Nuclear Power Plant in Pingtung County was disconnected from the nation’s power grid and completely shut down on May 17, the day its license expired. The government would prioritize people’s safety and conduct necessary evaluations and checks if there is a need to extend the service life of the reactor, Executive Yuan spokeswoman Michelle Lee (李慧芝) told a news conference. Lee said that the referendum would read: “Do
Taiwan's Vice President Hsiao Bi-khim (蕭美琴) said Saturday that she would not be intimidated by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), following reports that Chinese agents planned to ram her car during a visit to the Czech Republic last year. "I had a great visit to Prague & thank the Czech authorities for their hospitality & ensuring my safety," Hsiao said on social media platform X. "The CCP's unlawful activities will NOT intimidate me from voicing Taiwan's interests in the international community," she wrote. Hsiao visited the Czech Republic on March 18 last year as vice president-elect and met with Czech Senate leadership, including