Former president Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) yesterday said that democratic Progressive Party (DPP) Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) would win the presidential election by a slim margin and propel the DPP to a legislative majority.
“Currently, the two major parties are locked in a 50-50 split for the 2012 presidential elections. The [end] result on Jan. 14 will be very close,” the imprisoned Chen wrote in his bi-weekly statement, released by members of his office.
Citing recent opinion polls, Chen said: “The DPP will still win and Tsai will become Taiwan’s first female president, given her lead of 3 to 5 percentage points [in the polls].”
The DPP would most likely elect 57 legislators, giving it a slight majority in the 113-seat legislature, he added.
Chen, who continues to wield significant influence in the DPP through his One Side, One Country alliance despite being sentenced to 17-and-a-half years in jail for bribery and money laundering, has openly expressed his support for Tsai, although party officials have largely downplayed his backing.
The former president’s predictions are largely in line with media polls that either show the DPP candidate with a slight lead or suggest that Tsai and President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) are tied.
A survey released on May 25 by the Chinese-language Liberty Times (the Taipei Times’ sister newspaper) showed that Tsai held a 4 percentage point lead over Ma — 35 percent to 31 percent.
A TVBS poll released on May 20 showed support for Ma at 45 percent compared with Tsai’s 44 percent.
Both candidates’ leads in the respective polls were within the margin of error.
Chen said that Tsai’s addition to the ballot had taken away two pillars of support for Ma: Young people and women, which he said would be enough to lead to a narrow DPP victory, citing prior election experience.
“Ma no longer has any advantage among young people ... and it is a given that more women will support Tsai,” Chen said, adding that widespread public interest in the race would likely contribute to record-high voter turnout of about 80 percent.
It will be a “very competitive election campaign,” he said.
“Tsai isn’t second to Ma either in leadership ability or educational background. She’s also younger,” Chen said.
The National Immigration Agency (NIA) said yesterday that it will revoke the dependent-based residence permit of a Chinese social media influencer who reportedly “openly advocated for [China’s] unification through military force” with Taiwan. The Chinese national, identified by her surname Liu (劉), will have her residence permit revoked in accordance with Article 14 of the “Measures for the permission of family- based residence, long-term residence and settlement of people from the Mainland Area in the Taiwan Area,” the NIA said in a news release. The agency explained it received reports that Liu made “unifying Taiwan through military force” statements on her online
A magnitude 5.7 earthquake struck off Taitung County at 1:09pm today, the Central Weather Administration (CWA) said. The hypocenter was 53km northeast of Taitung County Hall at a depth of 12.5km, CWA data showed. The intensity of the quake, which gauges the actual effect of a seismic event, measured 4 in Taitung County and Hualien County on Taiwan's seven-tier intensity scale, the data showed. The quake had an intensity of 3 in Nantou County, Chiayi County, Yunlin County, Kaohsiung and Tainan, the data showed. There were no immediate reports of damage following the quake.
Actor Darren Wang (王大陸) is to begin his one-year alternative military service tomorrow amid ongoing legal issues, the Ministry of the Interior said yesterday. Wang, who last month was released on bail of NT$150,000 (US$4,561) as he faces charges of allegedly attempting to evade military service and forging documents, has been ordered to report to Taipei Railway Station at 9am tomorrow, the Alternative Military Service Training and Management Center said. The 33-year-old would join about 1,300 other conscripts in the 263rd cohort of general alternative service for training at the Chenggong Ling camp in Taichung, a center official told reporters. Wang would first
A BETRAYAL? It is none of the ministry’s business if those entertainers love China, but ‘you cannot agree to wipe out your own country,’ the MAC minister said Taiwanese entertainers in China would have their Taiwanese citizenship revoked if they are holding Chinese citizenship, Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) Minister Chiu Chui-cheng (邱垂正) said. Several Taiwanese entertainers, including Patty Hou (侯佩岑) and Ouyang Nana (歐陽娜娜), earlier this month on their Weibo (微博) accounts shared a picture saying that Taiwan would be “returned” to China, with tags such as “Taiwan, Province of China” or “Adhere to the ‘one China’ principle.” The MAC would investigate whether those Taiwanese entertainers have Chinese IDs and added that it would revoke their Taiwanese citizenship if they did, Chiu told the Chinese-language Liberty Times (sister paper
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