A new study by a China security expert at the US National Defense University cautioned that there might be a distinct downside to deeper cross-strait rapprochement between Taiwan and China.
Closer ties between the two sides could raise the prospect of “fundamental changes in China’s security challenges,” its author Michael Glosny said.
Glosny said that while other countries would be relieved by the rapprochement, many would also worry that a rising China no longer constrained by a focus on Taiwan would use its increased power to “challenge their interests elsewhere in Asia.”
“Former US Ambassador to China James Lilley referred to Taiwan as ‘the cork in China’s bottle,’” Glosny wrote. “Deeper rapprochement will remove the cork, freeing resources devoted to military preparation for Taiwan contingencies and giving the People’s Liberation Army [PLA] new options.”
The study, Getting Beyond Taiwan — Chinese Foreign Policy and PLA Modernization, just released by the Institute for National Strategic Studies, says that since the mid-1990s, China’s military modernization has focused on deterring Taiwanese independence and preparing for a military response if deterrence fails.
Given China’s assumption of US intervention in a conflict over Taiwan, the PLA has been developing military capabilities to deter, delay and disrupt US military support operations.
“The 2008 election of Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) has contributed to improved cross-strait economic and political cooperation and dramatically reduced the threat of Taiwan independence and war across the Taiwan Strait,” Glosny wrote.
Deeper rapprochement over the next five to 10 years would clearly be a positive development — removing the most likely source of war between the US and China, he said.
However, at the same time it would leave China free to “turn its attention” to other countries in the region.
“If China was no longer constrained by its focus on Taiwan, it could undermine regional stability. Maritime Southeast Asian states would worry that China might seize the Spratly Islands ... China might try to seize the Senkaku/Diaoyutai Islands or aggressively challenge Japan’s exclusive economic zone claims,” Glosny wrote.
“India would worry that China might take a tougher stance on unresolved land border disputes. Russia would fear that an unrestrained China could mount an aggressive move into the Russian Far East, both to reclaim territory and to try to seize energy resources in Siberia,” he added.
The study said that to date, countries in the region had been reluctant to pressure China to explain its skyrocketing defense budget and defense modernization plans.
“The removal of the Taiwan issue will make regional countries more likely to demand such explanations, as well as greater military transparency,” Glosny wrote. “This is likely to make China’s relations with its neighbors more acrimonious and make it more difficult to reassure them that it has peaceful and cooperative intentions.”
If the US reacts by strengthening defense ties with Asian countries, China could “unleash spirals of hostility,” the study said.
But if, on the other hand, the US reduces its presence in Asia, it could “lead to an independent Japan that acquires nuclear weapons and devotes more resources to military modernization,” it said.
“Regional powers, even without cooperation with Washington, are powerful enough to complicate China’s international environment, especially if they work together to prevent China’s dominance,” it said.
Nor will smooth relations across the Strait necessarily ensure better US-China relations.
“Shifting power dynamics often lead to friction, competition, and conflict,” the study said.
“American leaders would worry that China might try not only to drive US forces away from China’s coastal waters, but also to push the US out of East Asia. China might also devote significant resources to wage a global battle for military and political influence around the world,” he said.
“For Asia and the US, deeper rapprochement across the Strait will remove one major problem but will add a new layer of apprehension and concern about China’s future behavior on top of the existing uncertainties,” he said.
Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Chairman Eric Chu (朱立倫), spokeswoman Yang Chih-yu (楊智伃) and Legislator Hsieh Lung-chieh (謝龍介) would be summoned by police for questioning for leading an illegal assembly on Thursday evening last week, Minister of the Interior Liu Shyh-fang (劉世芳) said today. The three KMT officials led an assembly outside the Taipei City Prosecutors’ Office, a restricted area where public assembly is not allowed, protesting the questioning of several KMT staff and searches of KMT headquarters and offices in a recall petition forgery case. Chu, Yang and Hsieh are all suspected of contravening the Assembly and Parade Act (集會遊行法) by holding
PRAISE: Japanese visitor Takashi Kubota said the Taiwanese temple architecture images showcased in the AI Art Gallery were the most impressive displays he saw Taiwan does not have an official pavilion at the World Expo in Osaka, Japan, because of its diplomatic predicament, but the government-backed Tech World pavilion is drawing interest with its unique recreations of works by Taiwanese artists. The pavilion features an artificial intelligence (AI)-based art gallery showcasing works of famous Taiwanese artists from the Japanese colonial period using innovative technologies. Among its main simulated displays are Eastern gouache paintings by Chen Chin (陳進), Lin Yu-shan (林玉山) and Kuo Hsueh-hu (郭雪湖), who were the three young Taiwanese painters selected for the East Asian Painting exhibition in 1927. Gouache is a water-based
Taiwan would welcome the return of Honduras as a diplomatic ally if its next president decides to make such a move, Minister of Foreign Affairs Lin Chia-lung (林佳龍) said yesterday. “Of course, we would welcome Honduras if they want to restore diplomatic ties with Taiwan after their elections,” Lin said at a meeting of the legislature’s Foreign Affairs and National Defense Committee, when asked to comment on statements made by two of the three Honduran presidential candidates during the presidential campaign in the Central American country. Taiwan is paying close attention to the region as a whole in the wake of a
OFF-TARGET: More than 30,000 participants were expected to take part in the Games next month, but only 6,550 foreign and 19,400 Taiwanese athletes have registered Taipei city councilors yesterday blasted the organizers of next month’s World Masters Games over sudden timetable and venue changes, which they said have caused thousands of participants to back out of the international sporting event, among other organizational issues. They also cited visa delays and political interference by China as reasons many foreign athletes are requesting refunds for the event, to be held from May 17 to 30. Jointly organized by the Taipei and New Taipei City governments, the games have been rocked by numerous controversies since preparations began in 2020. Taipei City Councilor Lin Yen-feng (林延鳳) said yesterday that new measures by