A major new analysis concludes that China’s military modernization program has focused on building capabilities to coerce Taiwan into unification.
The analysis also says the program is aimed at establishing air supremacy over Taiwan and interdicting and destroying US surface ships entering the region.
Written by Dan Blumenthal, director of Asian studies at the American Enterprise Institute and published by the National Bureau of Asian Research, the analysis says that Chinese operational planning for Taiwan seems to include a punitive attack on the nation.
Blumenthal, a former senior director for China and Taiwan at the Pentagon’s Office of International Security Affairs, argues that China’s strategy would be guided by the principles of surprise, possible pre-emption and “decisive blows.”
This strategy is driven, he says, by lessons that China believes that it has learned from Iraq’s failed strategy and tactics during the first Gulf War.
“According to Chinese analysts, in that conflict the United States was given too much time to build up its forces without being attacked and Iraqi Scud missiles were not fired in a concentrated and operationally effective manner,” Blumenthal said
The 30-page analysis says: “If China does not achieve its desired strategic goals with a quick punitive strike against Taiwan — by, for example, bringing Taiwan to the table on Beijing’s terms — it appears to have plans in place to escalate the conflict. The [People’s Republic of China (PRC)] could utilize missile forces to kick in the door on the island by taking out all Taiwan’s airfields and runways and establishing air superiority over the Strait. China’s increasingly sophisticated air force could then attack Taiwan with relative impunity.”
At the same time, Blumenthal says, China might seek to “strike devastating blows against the United States and Japan” in order to keep the two countries from intervening.
“Indeed, China is contemplating massive air and missile strikes on the Kadena and Iwakuni air bases in Japan, despite the geopolitical risks. Beijing may be willing to take this risk if it calculates that a devastating blow against the US and allied bases would present Washington with a fait accompli because the US has no good conventional responses and would not risk nuclear escalation,” he added.
If China decides it needs to engage US forces to win in Taiwan, the analysis argues, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) would execute a sea-denial strategy employing attack submarines, fighter aircraft equipped with cruise missiles and land-based ballistic missiles with maneuverable warheads to threaten US aircraft carriers.
“When dealing with a political issue for which China has raised the stakes to a very high level, such as Taiwan, the PRC may be willing to use a great deal of force and attain a high level of doctrinal and technical innovation to achieve its goals. That the United States has nuclear-powered carriers, F-22s or Virginia-class submarines does not matter if Washington chooses not to use such assets within China’s close-in kill zones. The key questions are what would we actually bring to the fight and when and how would we do so?” he asked.
The analysis also asks under what conditions would US allies — Japan, Singapore and Australia — fight alongside each other and the US?
Japan, says the analysis, may be eager to clear its territorial waters of PLA surface ships and submarines, but “responding to an attack on Taiwan, particularly if Japan itself is not attacked, may be a whole other matter.”
Blumenthal says that if China conducts an unprovoked attack that looks like an opening gambit to change the regional balance of power, then perhaps Canberra, Singapore and Tokyo “would do what they could to help defeat PRC forces.”
However, he added: “Today, it is just as easy to imagine that they would be reluctant to participate.”
‘DENIAL DEFENSE’: The US would increase its military presence with uncrewed ships, and submarines, while boosting defense in the Indo-Pacific, a Pete Hegseth memo said The US is reorienting its military strategy to focus primarily on deterring a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan, a memo signed by US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth showed. The memo also called on Taiwan to increase its defense spending. The document, known as the “Interim National Defense Strategic Guidance,” was distributed this month and detailed the national defense plans of US President Donald Trump’s administration, an article in the Washington Post said on Saturday. It outlines how the US can prepare for a potential war with China and defend itself from threats in the “near abroad,” including Greenland and the Panama
The High Prosecutors’ Office yesterday withdrew an appeal against the acquittal of a former bank manager 22 years after his death, marking Taiwan’s first instance of prosecutors rendering posthumous justice to a wrongfully convicted defendant. Chu Ching-en (諸慶恩) — formerly a manager at the Taipei branch of BNP Paribas — was in 1999 accused by Weng Mao-chung (翁茂鍾), then-president of Chia Her Industrial Co, of forging a request for a fixed deposit of US$10 million by I-Hwa Industrial Co, a subsidiary of Chia Her, which was used as collateral. Chu was ruled not guilty in the first trial, but was found guilty
A wild live dugong was found in Taiwan for the first time in 88 years, after it was accidentally caught by a fisher’s net on Tuesday in Yilan County’s Fenniaolin (粉鳥林). This is the first sighting of the species in Taiwan since 1937, having already been considered “extinct” in the country and considered as “vulnerable” by the International Union for Conservation of Nature. A fisher surnamed Chen (陳) went to Fenniaolin to collect the fish in his netting, but instead caught a 3m long, 500kg dugong. The fisher released the animal back into the wild, not realizing it was an endangered species at
DEADLOCK: As the commission is unable to forum a quorum to review license renewal applications, the channel operators are not at fault and can air past their license date The National Communications Commission (NCC) yesterday said that the Public Television Service (PTS) and 36 other television and radio broadcasters could continue airing, despite the commission’s inability to meet a quorum to review their license renewal applications. The licenses of PTS and the other channels are set to expire between this month and June. The National Communications Commission Organization Act (國家通訊傳播委員會組織法) stipulates that the commission must meet the mandated quorum of four to hold a valid meeting. The seven-member commission currently has only three commissioners. “We have informed the channel operators of the progress we have made in reviewing their license renewal applications, and