A symposium on the South China Sea was told on Thursday that Beijing’s naval buildup over the last decade was focused “almost solely” on Taiwan.
Bernard Cole of the US’ National War College added that this was particularly true with respect to China’s “dramatic construction program for conventionally powered submarines.”
He was responding to Marvin Ott, a public policy scholar at the Washington-based Woodrow Wilson Center, who had asked: “Why is China building so much capacity so fast?”
Ott said that at some undefinable moment in the last 18 months, a point was passed in Chinese military and political growth that made Southeast Asia “palpably nervous.”
“It does not take much imagination to see an increasingly problematic security situation, with a very large question mark over Beijing,” he said. “What are the Chinese up to? What is their intent? What do they have in mind? In that environment, the US becomes an important guarantor of autonomy and freedom of action.”
Ott said there was a “perception that the growth of Chinese power is now becoming scary.”
“That wasn’t true before,” he said. “Why have the Chinese, who have been so diplomatically skilled over the last 20 years, suddenly become so tone deaf? The Chinese are not listening. It has suddenly become all bare-knuckle demands. How the Chinese went from being so sophisticated and skilled in this arena to becoming so primitive, I don’t have an answer.”
The symposium, organized by the Heritage Foundation in Washington, heard from Dean Cheng (成斌), a research fellow in the Asian Studies Center at Heritage, that the Chinese military perceive the US to be a “declining power.”
In addition, the West has been talking a lot about the rise of China.
Cheng said: “If you keep saying that someone else is the wave of the future they might actually come to believe you.”
And third, Cheng said, the younger generation now emerging in China has been brought up on boasts about their country’s remarkable achievements.
“They don’t think China should play a secondary role or walk softly when its capabilities are so great,” he said.
The symposium was told that there is now a “lot of swagger” in Beijing and a real “intoxication with power.”
Cole said the Chinese military was concerned about “post-Taiwan” and military planners were “seeking desperately” for military scenarios after Taiwan’s expected reunification.
The planners were concerned, he said, that it might become difficult to justify a continuing increase in military budgets. And this in turn could lead to “a harder attitude towards Taiwan.”
Asked how the new US Congress — voted into power earlier this week in the midterm elections — might change Asian policy, Walter Lohman, director of Asian Studies at Heritage, said that Taiwan would certainly become a bigger issue on Capitol Hill.
“But there is a limit constitutionally to what Congress can do. In the case of pending arms sales to Taiwan — F-16 sales — Congress can’t compel that to happen. That still has to come from the president. You will find a willing audience in Congress for it, but the president is the one who has to make the decision,” he said.
The symposium was asked if there was a chance that China would use force to back its claims in the South China Sea.
Cheng replied: “China does not seem to have much experience, nor much concern, with the issue of inadvertent escalation and accidental war. China’s wars have generally been the result of somebody deliberately choosing to go to war.”
“So, could a low-level incident involving fishing boats or rocky outcroppings spiral out of control? Could efforts at de-escalation by the US be seen as weakness?” Cheng said.
That kind of “potential for miscalculation,” Cheng said, could lead to “very significant ramifications.”
Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Chairman Eric Chu (朱立倫), spokeswoman Yang Chih-yu (楊智伃) and Legislator Hsieh Lung-chieh (謝龍介) would be summoned by police for questioning for leading an illegal assembly on Thursday evening last week, Minister of the Interior Liu Shyh-fang (劉世芳) said today. The three KMT officials led an assembly outside the Taipei City Prosecutors’ Office, a restricted area where public assembly is not allowed, protesting the questioning of several KMT staff and searches of KMT headquarters and offices in a recall petition forgery case. Chu, Yang and Hsieh are all suspected of contravening the Assembly and Parade Act (集會遊行法) by holding
PRAISE: Japanese visitor Takashi Kubota said the Taiwanese temple architecture images showcased in the AI Art Gallery were the most impressive displays he saw Taiwan does not have an official pavilion at the World Expo in Osaka, Japan, because of its diplomatic predicament, but the government-backed Tech World pavilion is drawing interest with its unique recreations of works by Taiwanese artists. The pavilion features an artificial intelligence (AI)-based art gallery showcasing works of famous Taiwanese artists from the Japanese colonial period using innovative technologies. Among its main simulated displays are Eastern gouache paintings by Chen Chin (陳進), Lin Yu-shan (林玉山) and Kuo Hsueh-hu (郭雪湖), who were the three young Taiwanese painters selected for the East Asian Painting exhibition in 1927. Gouache is a water-based
Taiwan would welcome the return of Honduras as a diplomatic ally if its next president decides to make such a move, Minister of Foreign Affairs Lin Chia-lung (林佳龍) said yesterday. “Of course, we would welcome Honduras if they want to restore diplomatic ties with Taiwan after their elections,” Lin said at a meeting of the legislature’s Foreign Affairs and National Defense Committee, when asked to comment on statements made by two of the three Honduran presidential candidates during the presidential campaign in the Central American country. Taiwan is paying close attention to the region as a whole in the wake of a
OFF-TARGET: More than 30,000 participants were expected to take part in the Games next month, but only 6,550 foreign and 19,400 Taiwanese athletes have registered Taipei city councilors yesterday blasted the organizers of next month’s World Masters Games over sudden timetable and venue changes, which they said have caused thousands of participants to back out of the international sporting event, among other organizational issues. They also cited visa delays and political interference by China as reasons many foreign athletes are requesting refunds for the event, to be held from May 17 to 30. Jointly organized by the Taipei and New Taipei City governments, the games have been rocked by numerous controversies since preparations began in 2020. Taipei City Councilor Lin Yen-feng (林延鳳) said yesterday that new measures by