The likelihood of Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidates in Taipei and Sinbei cities winning November mayoral elections exceeded that of their Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) opponents for the first time in the wake of the flora pricing debacle, a university prediction center said yesterday.
On a scale of NT$0 to NT$100, National Chengchi University’s Prediction Market Center said the odds that incumbent Taipei Mayor Hau Lung-bin (郝龍斌) of the KMT would win the November polls stood at NT$47.4 yesterday.
The price of his DPP opponent Su Tseng-chang (蘇貞昌) grew from NT$50 before the controversy to NT$52.4 yesterday.
Prediction markets are speculative exchanges, with the value of an asset meant to reflect the likelihood of a future event. Members can tender virtual bids on events, with the bidding price reflecting its probability.
Hau and Su have been locked in a tight race since Su was nominated in May. However, the situation began to change after two DPP city councilors claimed two weeks ago that the contract price for flowers used to spruce up the Xinsheng Overpass was unreasonably high.
The city government failed to clarify the matter and did not take any action until a week later, when it replaced officials and launched an investigation to determine if corruption or bribery was involved in purchase plans for the Xinsheng Overpass and the Taipei International Flora Expo. However, the steps were taken too late to stop the immediate damage to Hau’s popularity.
The fallout also boosted the prospects of the DPP’s candidate for Sinbei City, DPP Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文).
While Tsai and her KMT opponent, former premier Eric Chu (朱立倫), have been running neck-and-neck, the probability that Tsai would win the election increased from NT$49.9 to NT$52.3 yesterday, while the bidding price for Chu dropped from NT$49.5 to NT$48.5.
Meanwhile, DPP candidates hold a seemingly insurmountable advantage in the south, the center said. For Greater Kaohsiung, the possibility of DPP candidate Kaohsiung Mayor Chen Chu (陳菊) winning remains high, but has gradually declined. It reached its highest of NT$89 in June and then fell to NT$79.3 in July and then NT$69.5 yesterday.
Her KMT challenger, Huang Chao-shun (黃昭順), remained low at between NT$14 and NT$16. Her latest value was NT$15.4 yesterday.
The price of Kaohsiung County Commissioner Yang Chiu-hsing (楊秋興) jumped to NT$41.30 after he announced his candidacy last month to run in the Greater Kaohsiung mayoral race as an independent. However, it quickly dropped to NT$15.10 and then rebounded to NT$19.8 yesterday.
In Greater Tainan, the margin between DPP candidate William Lai (賴清德) and his KMT opponent, Kuo Tien-tsai (郭添財), remained large, but Lai’s prices also continued to descend, sinking from NT$91.5 in June to NT$90 in July and then to NT$85 last month.
The latest value was NT$77 yesterday. KMT Taichung Mayor Jason Hu (胡志強) continues to hold the lead in Greater Taichung. Hu’s lead over the DPP’s Su Jia-chyuan (蘇嘉全) has been narrowed from 42 percentage points in May, to 30 percentage points yesterday. Hu’s price was NT$64.8 yesterday and Su Jia-chyuan’s was NT$34.7.
Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Chairman Eric Chu (朱立倫), spokeswoman Yang Chih-yu (楊智伃) and Legislator Hsieh Lung-chieh (謝龍介) would be summoned by police for questioning for leading an illegal assembly on Thursday evening last week, Minister of the Interior Liu Shyh-fang (劉世芳) said today. The three KMT officials led an assembly outside the Taipei City Prosecutors’ Office, a restricted area where public assembly is not allowed, protesting the questioning of several KMT staff and searches of KMT headquarters and offices in a recall petition forgery case. Chu, Yang and Hsieh are all suspected of contravening the Assembly and Parade Act (集會遊行法) by holding
PRAISE: Japanese visitor Takashi Kubota said the Taiwanese temple architecture images showcased in the AI Art Gallery were the most impressive displays he saw Taiwan does not have an official pavilion at the World Expo in Osaka, Japan, because of its diplomatic predicament, but the government-backed Tech World pavilion is drawing interest with its unique recreations of works by Taiwanese artists. The pavilion features an artificial intelligence (AI)-based art gallery showcasing works of famous Taiwanese artists from the Japanese colonial period using innovative technologies. Among its main simulated displays are Eastern gouache paintings by Chen Chin (陳進), Lin Yu-shan (林玉山) and Kuo Hsueh-hu (郭雪湖), who were the three young Taiwanese painters selected for the East Asian Painting exhibition in 1927. Gouache is a water-based
Taiwan would welcome the return of Honduras as a diplomatic ally if its next president decides to make such a move, Minister of Foreign Affairs Lin Chia-lung (林佳龍) said yesterday. “Of course, we would welcome Honduras if they want to restore diplomatic ties with Taiwan after their elections,” Lin said at a meeting of the legislature’s Foreign Affairs and National Defense Committee, when asked to comment on statements made by two of the three Honduran presidential candidates during the presidential campaign in the Central American country. Taiwan is paying close attention to the region as a whole in the wake of a
OFF-TARGET: More than 30,000 participants were expected to take part in the Games next month, but only 6,550 foreign and 19,400 Taiwanese athletes have registered Taipei city councilors yesterday blasted the organizers of next month’s World Masters Games over sudden timetable and venue changes, which they said have caused thousands of participants to back out of the international sporting event, among other organizational issues. They also cited visa delays and political interference by China as reasons many foreign athletes are requesting refunds for the event, to be held from May 17 to 30. Jointly organized by the Taipei and New Taipei City governments, the games have been rocked by numerous controversies since preparations began in 2020. Taipei City Councilor Lin Yen-feng (林延鳳) said yesterday that new measures by
RSS