The likelihood of Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidates in Taipei and Sinbei cities winning November mayoral elections exceeded that of their Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) opponents for the first time in the wake of the flora pricing debacle, a university prediction center said yesterday.
On a scale of NT$0 to NT$100, National Chengchi University’s Prediction Market Center said the odds that incumbent Taipei Mayor Hau Lung-bin (郝龍斌) of the KMT would win the November polls stood at NT$47.4 yesterday.
The price of his DPP opponent Su Tseng-chang (蘇貞昌) grew from NT$50 before the controversy to NT$52.4 yesterday.
Prediction markets are speculative exchanges, with the value of an asset meant to reflect the likelihood of a future event. Members can tender virtual bids on events, with the bidding price reflecting its probability.
Hau and Su have been locked in a tight race since Su was nominated in May. However, the situation began to change after two DPP city councilors claimed two weeks ago that the contract price for flowers used to spruce up the Xinsheng Overpass was unreasonably high.
The city government failed to clarify the matter and did not take any action until a week later, when it replaced officials and launched an investigation to determine if corruption or bribery was involved in purchase plans for the Xinsheng Overpass and the Taipei International Flora Expo. However, the steps were taken too late to stop the immediate damage to Hau’s popularity.
The fallout also boosted the prospects of the DPP’s candidate for Sinbei City, DPP Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文).
While Tsai and her KMT opponent, former premier Eric Chu (朱立倫), have been running neck-and-neck, the probability that Tsai would win the election increased from NT$49.9 to NT$52.3 yesterday, while the bidding price for Chu dropped from NT$49.5 to NT$48.5.
Meanwhile, DPP candidates hold a seemingly insurmountable advantage in the south, the center said. For Greater Kaohsiung, the possibility of DPP candidate Kaohsiung Mayor Chen Chu (陳菊) winning remains high, but has gradually declined. It reached its highest of NT$89 in June and then fell to NT$79.3 in July and then NT$69.5 yesterday.
Her KMT challenger, Huang Chao-shun (黃昭順), remained low at between NT$14 and NT$16. Her latest value was NT$15.4 yesterday.
The price of Kaohsiung County Commissioner Yang Chiu-hsing (楊秋興) jumped to NT$41.30 after he announced his candidacy last month to run in the Greater Kaohsiung mayoral race as an independent. However, it quickly dropped to NT$15.10 and then rebounded to NT$19.8 yesterday.
In Greater Tainan, the margin between DPP candidate William Lai (賴清德) and his KMT opponent, Kuo Tien-tsai (郭添財), remained large, but Lai’s prices also continued to descend, sinking from NT$91.5 in June to NT$90 in July and then to NT$85 last month.
The latest value was NT$77 yesterday. KMT Taichung Mayor Jason Hu (胡志強) continues to hold the lead in Greater Taichung. Hu’s lead over the DPP’s Su Jia-chyuan (蘇嘉全) has been narrowed from 42 percentage points in May, to 30 percentage points yesterday. Hu’s price was NT$64.8 yesterday and Su Jia-chyuan’s was NT$34.7.
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