Candidates of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) are neck-and-neck in both Taipei and Sinbei cities ahead of November’s special municipality elections, according to a university prediction center.
National Chengchi University’s Prediction Market Center yesterday said DPP candidates in Taipei and Sinbei have caught up with their KMT counterparts.
Prediction markets are speculative exchanges, with the value of an asset meant to reflect the likelihood of a future event. Members can tender virtual bids on events, with the bidding price reflecting the probability.
On a scale of NT$0 to NT$100, bidders felt the probability of DPP candidate Su Tseng-chang (蘇貞昌) winning the Taipei poll grew from NT$48 last month to NT$49 on Tuesday. Meanwhile, the bidding price of Taipei Mayor Hau Lung-bin (郝龍斌) fell from NT$53 to NT$49.
In Sinbei, the value of DPP Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文), who is running for Sinbei mayor, has grown from NT$40.25 when the party announced her candidacy in May to NT$49.3 on Tuesday. The likelihood of her KMT opponent, former vice premier Eric Chu (朱立倫), winning dropped from NT$52 last month to NT$49.3.
The KMT holds a seemingly insurmountable advantage in Greater Taichung, the center said.
KMT Taichung Mayor Jason Hu (胡志強) continues to lead, but the gap is narrowing, especially after an alleged gang leader was shot dead in the city late in May. The possibility of Hu winning dropped dramatically from NT$77 to NT$67 after his DPP opponent Su Jia-chyuan (蘇嘉全) announced his candidacy on May 23. Hu’s value dropped to as low as NT$57.6 following the shooting. His price rebounded to NT$66.6 on Tuesday.
Su’s price reached NT$35 on Tuesday.
Meanwhile, DPP candidates continue to hold significant leads in the south. The chances of winning in Greater Kaohsiung for Kaohsiung Mayor Chen Chu (陳菊) remains high. The possibility of Chen winning the poll had remained between NT$66 and NT$70 before falling to NT$62.32 in May — its lowest level since she announced her candidacy on May 5. It rose to NT$89.2 last month, but dropped to NT$79.3 yesterday.
Her KMT challenger, Huang Chao-shun (黃昭順), remained in the range of NT$12 and NT$16. The latest price was NT$16.8.
In Greater Tainan, the margin between DPP candidate William Lai (賴清德) and his KMT opponent, Kuo Tien-tsai (郭添財), remained large, with Lai remaining between NT$87 and NT$90 and Kuo fluctuating between NT$10 to NT$17. The latest values as of Tuesday for Lai and Kuo were NT$90.2 and NT$15.5, respectively.
The Coast Guard Administration (CGA) and Chunghwa Telecom yesterday confirmed that an international undersea cable near Keelung Harbor had been cut by a Chinese ship, the Shunxin-39, a freighter registered in Cameroon. Chunghwa Telecom said the cable had its own backup equipment, and the incident would not affect telecommunications within Taiwan. The CGA said it dispatched a ship under its first fleet after receiving word of the incident and located the Shunxin-39 7 nautical miles (13km) north of Yehliu (野柳) at about 4:40pm on Friday. The CGA demanded that the Shunxin-39 return to seas closer to Keelung Harbor for investigation over the
National Kaohsiung University of Science and Technology (NKUST) yesterday promised it would increase oversight of use of Chinese in course materials, following a social media outcry over instances of simplified Chinese characters being used, including in a final exam. People on Threads wrote that simplified Chinese characters were used on a final exam and in a textbook for a translation course at the university, while the business card of a professor bore the words: “Taiwan Province, China.” Photographs of the exam, the textbook and the business card were posted with the comments. NKUST said that other members of the faculty did not see
An apartment building in New Taipei City’s Sanchong District (三重) collapsed last night after a nearby construction project earlier in the day allegedly caused it to tilt. Shortly after work began at 9am on an ongoing excavation of a construction site on Liuzhang Street (六張街), two neighboring apartment buildings tilted and cracked, leading to exterior tiles peeling off, city officials said. The fire department then dispatched personnel to help evacuate 22 residents from nine households. After the incident, the city government first filled the building at No. 190, which appeared to be more badly affected, with water to stabilize the
EARTHQUAKE: Taipei and New Taipei City accused a construction company of ignoring the Circular MRT’s original design, causing sections to shift by up to 92cm The Taipei and New Taipei City governments yesterday said they would seek NT$1.93 billion (US$58.6 million) in compensation from the company responsible for building the Circular MRT Line, following damage sustained during an earthquake in April last year that had shuttered a section for months. BES Engineering Corp, a listed company under Core Pacific Group, was accused of ignoring the original design when constructing the MRT line, resulting in negative shear strength resistance and causing sections of the rail line between Jhonghe (中和) and Banciao (板橋) districts to shift by up to 92cm during the April 3 earthquake. The pot bearings on