Candidates of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) are neck-and-neck in both Taipei and Sinbei cities ahead of November’s special municipality elections, according to a university prediction center.
National Chengchi University’s Prediction Market Center yesterday said DPP candidates in Taipei and Sinbei have caught up with their KMT counterparts.
Prediction markets are speculative exchanges, with the value of an asset meant to reflect the likelihood of a future event. Members can tender virtual bids on events, with the bidding price reflecting the probability.
On a scale of NT$0 to NT$100, bidders felt the probability of DPP candidate Su Tseng-chang (蘇貞昌) winning the Taipei poll grew from NT$48 last month to NT$49 on Tuesday. Meanwhile, the bidding price of Taipei Mayor Hau Lung-bin (郝龍斌) fell from NT$53 to NT$49.
In Sinbei, the value of DPP Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文), who is running for Sinbei mayor, has grown from NT$40.25 when the party announced her candidacy in May to NT$49.3 on Tuesday. The likelihood of her KMT opponent, former vice premier Eric Chu (朱立倫), winning dropped from NT$52 last month to NT$49.3.
The KMT holds a seemingly insurmountable advantage in Greater Taichung, the center said.
KMT Taichung Mayor Jason Hu (胡志強) continues to lead, but the gap is narrowing, especially after an alleged gang leader was shot dead in the city late in May. The possibility of Hu winning dropped dramatically from NT$77 to NT$67 after his DPP opponent Su Jia-chyuan (蘇嘉全) announced his candidacy on May 23. Hu’s value dropped to as low as NT$57.6 following the shooting. His price rebounded to NT$66.6 on Tuesday.
Su’s price reached NT$35 on Tuesday.
Meanwhile, DPP candidates continue to hold significant leads in the south. The chances of winning in Greater Kaohsiung for Kaohsiung Mayor Chen Chu (陳菊) remains high. The possibility of Chen winning the poll had remained between NT$66 and NT$70 before falling to NT$62.32 in May — its lowest level since she announced her candidacy on May 5. It rose to NT$89.2 last month, but dropped to NT$79.3 yesterday.
Her KMT challenger, Huang Chao-shun (黃昭順), remained in the range of NT$12 and NT$16. The latest price was NT$16.8.
In Greater Tainan, the margin between DPP candidate William Lai (賴清德) and his KMT opponent, Kuo Tien-tsai (郭添財), remained large, with Lai remaining between NT$87 and NT$90 and Kuo fluctuating between NT$10 to NT$17. The latest values as of Tuesday for Lai and Kuo were NT$90.2 and NT$15.5, respectively.
Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Chairman Eric Chu (朱立倫), spokeswoman Yang Chih-yu (楊智伃) and Legislator Hsieh Lung-chieh (謝龍介) would be summoned by police for questioning for leading an illegal assembly on Thursday evening last week, Minister of the Interior Liu Shyh-fang (劉世芳) said today. The three KMT officials led an assembly outside the Taipei City Prosecutors’ Office, a restricted area where public assembly is not allowed, protesting the questioning of several KMT staff and searches of KMT headquarters and offices in a recall petition forgery case. Chu, Yang and Hsieh are all suspected of contravening the Assembly and Parade Act (集會遊行法) by holding
PRAISE: Japanese visitor Takashi Kubota said the Taiwanese temple architecture images showcased in the AI Art Gallery were the most impressive displays he saw Taiwan does not have an official pavilion at the World Expo in Osaka, Japan, because of its diplomatic predicament, but the government-backed Tech World pavilion is drawing interest with its unique recreations of works by Taiwanese artists. The pavilion features an artificial intelligence (AI)-based art gallery showcasing works of famous Taiwanese artists from the Japanese colonial period using innovative technologies. Among its main simulated displays are Eastern gouache paintings by Chen Chin (陳進), Lin Yu-shan (林玉山) and Kuo Hsueh-hu (郭雪湖), who were the three young Taiwanese painters selected for the East Asian Painting exhibition in 1927. Gouache is a water-based
Taiwan would welcome the return of Honduras as a diplomatic ally if its next president decides to make such a move, Minister of Foreign Affairs Lin Chia-lung (林佳龍) said yesterday. “Of course, we would welcome Honduras if they want to restore diplomatic ties with Taiwan after their elections,” Lin said at a meeting of the legislature’s Foreign Affairs and National Defense Committee, when asked to comment on statements made by two of the three Honduran presidential candidates during the presidential campaign in the Central American country. Taiwan is paying close attention to the region as a whole in the wake of a
OFF-TARGET: More than 30,000 participants were expected to take part in the Games next month, but only 6,550 foreign and 19,400 Taiwanese athletes have registered Taipei city councilors yesterday blasted the organizers of next month’s World Masters Games over sudden timetable and venue changes, which they said have caused thousands of participants to back out of the international sporting event, among other organizational issues. They also cited visa delays and political interference by China as reasons many foreign athletes are requesting refunds for the event, to be held from May 17 to 30. Jointly organized by the Taipei and New Taipei City governments, the games have been rocked by numerous controversies since preparations began in 2020. Taipei City Councilor Lin Yen-feng (林延鳳) said yesterday that new measures by
RSS