The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) are locked in tight races in both Taipei and Sinbei cities ahead of November’s special municipality elections, a university prediction center said yesterday.
While the DPP has a big lead in two southern cities, the KMT holds a seemingly unsurmountable advantage in Greater Taichung, it said.
National Chengchi University’s Prediction Market Center said the prospects of the DPP candidates winning the elections in Taipei and Sinbei remain in the balance.
Elections for the heads of five special municipalities will take place on Nov. 27 in Taipei City, Sinbei City (the upgraded Taipei County), Greater Taichung (a merger of Taichung City and Taichung County), Greater Tainan (a merger of Tainan City and Tainan County) and Greater Kaohsiung (a merger of Kaohsiung City and Kaohsiung County).
Prediction markets are speculative exchanges, with the value of an asset meant to reflect the likelihood of a future event. Members can tender virtual bids on events, with the bidding price reflecting the probability.
On a scale of NT$0 to NT$100, bidders felt the probability of DPP candidate Su Tseng-chang (蘇貞昌) winning the Taipei City poll grew from NT$45 to NT$48 yesterday. The bidding price of Taipei Mayor Hau Lung-bin (郝龍斌) jumped from NT$51 last month to NT$53 yesterday.
In Sinbei City, DPP Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) is making good progress since announcing her candidacy on May 23. Her price has grown from NT$42 to NT$49.43 yesterday.
The likelihood of her KMT opponent, former vice premier Eric Chu (朱立倫), winning dropped from NT$59 to its lowest level over the past two months at NT$49.87 after Tsai announced her candidacy. It rebounded to NT$52 yesterday.
Taichung Mayor Jason Hu (胡志強) continued to lead in Greater Taichung, but the gap is narrowing, especially after the shooting of a gang leader in the city late last month. The market showed that since the DPP nominated Su Jia-chyuan (蘇嘉全) on May 23, the probability of the DPP candidate winning grew from NT$35 to NT$37.
The possibility of Hu winning dropped dramatically from NT$77 to NT$67 after Su Jia-chyuan announced his candidacy. Hu’s price further plunged to NT$60 yesterday following the shooting.
Meanwhile, DPP candidates continue to hold significant leads in the south.
The possibility of DPP candidate for Greater Kaohsiung, Kaohsiung Mayor Chen Chu (陳菊), winning remains high. It advanced to NT$89.2 yesterday.
Her KMT challenger, Huang Chao-shun (黃昭順), descended to NT$14 yesterday.
In Greater Tainan, the margin between DPP candidate William Lai (賴清德) and his KMT opponent, Kuo Tien-tsai (郭添財), remained large, with Lai leaping from NT$87 to NT$91.5 and Kuo falling from NT$16 to NT$12.
In related news, according to an internal poll publicized by the DPP yesterday, Hu’s lead over Su Jia-chyuan has been shortening in recent weeks, from 18 percentage points more than three weeks ago, to a 14.1 percentage points in a poll on May 27.
Sources from the DPP said that based on their analysis, that lead could fall to within 10 percentage points before the DPP holds its next poll.
“Despite Hu’s nine years in office, Taichung residents have yet to see any real political achievements,” said DPP spokesperson Tsai Chi-chang (蔡其昌), attempting to explain Hu’s rapid drop in support. “We believe that it’s time for a change.”
ADDITIONAL REPORTING BY VINCENT Y. CHAO
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