The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) are locked in tight races in both Taipei and Sinbei cities ahead of November’s special municipality elections, a university prediction center said yesterday.
While the DPP has a big lead in two southern cities, the KMT holds a seemingly unsurmountable advantage in Greater Taichung, it said.
National Chengchi University’s Prediction Market Center said the prospects of the DPP candidates winning the elections in Taipei and Sinbei remain in the balance.
Elections for the heads of five special municipalities will take place on Nov. 27 in Taipei City, Sinbei City (the upgraded Taipei County), Greater Taichung (a merger of Taichung City and Taichung County), Greater Tainan (a merger of Tainan City and Tainan County) and Greater Kaohsiung (a merger of Kaohsiung City and Kaohsiung County).
Prediction markets are speculative exchanges, with the value of an asset meant to reflect the likelihood of a future event. Members can tender virtual bids on events, with the bidding price reflecting the probability.
On a scale of NT$0 to NT$100, bidders felt the probability of DPP candidate Su Tseng-chang (蘇貞昌) winning the Taipei City poll grew from NT$45 to NT$48 yesterday. The bidding price of Taipei Mayor Hau Lung-bin (郝龍斌) jumped from NT$51 last month to NT$53 yesterday.
In Sinbei City, DPP Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) is making good progress since announcing her candidacy on May 23. Her price has grown from NT$42 to NT$49.43 yesterday.
The likelihood of her KMT opponent, former vice premier Eric Chu (朱立倫), winning dropped from NT$59 to its lowest level over the past two months at NT$49.87 after Tsai announced her candidacy. It rebounded to NT$52 yesterday.
Taichung Mayor Jason Hu (胡志強) continued to lead in Greater Taichung, but the gap is narrowing, especially after the shooting of a gang leader in the city late last month. The market showed that since the DPP nominated Su Jia-chyuan (蘇嘉全) on May 23, the probability of the DPP candidate winning grew from NT$35 to NT$37.
The possibility of Hu winning dropped dramatically from NT$77 to NT$67 after Su Jia-chyuan announced his candidacy. Hu’s price further plunged to NT$60 yesterday following the shooting.
Meanwhile, DPP candidates continue to hold significant leads in the south.
The possibility of DPP candidate for Greater Kaohsiung, Kaohsiung Mayor Chen Chu (陳菊), winning remains high. It advanced to NT$89.2 yesterday.
Her KMT challenger, Huang Chao-shun (黃昭順), descended to NT$14 yesterday.
In Greater Tainan, the margin between DPP candidate William Lai (賴清德) and his KMT opponent, Kuo Tien-tsai (郭添財), remained large, with Lai leaping from NT$87 to NT$91.5 and Kuo falling from NT$16 to NT$12.
In related news, according to an internal poll publicized by the DPP yesterday, Hu’s lead over Su Jia-chyuan has been shortening in recent weeks, from 18 percentage points more than three weeks ago, to a 14.1 percentage points in a poll on May 27.
Sources from the DPP said that based on their analysis, that lead could fall to within 10 percentage points before the DPP holds its next poll.
“Despite Hu’s nine years in office, Taichung residents have yet to see any real political achievements,” said DPP spokesperson Tsai Chi-chang (蔡其昌), attempting to explain Hu’s rapid drop in support. “We believe that it’s time for a change.”
ADDITIONAL REPORTING BY VINCENT Y. CHAO
‘DENIAL DEFENSE’: The US would increase its military presence with uncrewed ships, and submarines, while boosting defense in the Indo-Pacific, a Pete Hegseth memo said The US is reorienting its military strategy to focus primarily on deterring a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan, a memo signed by US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth showed. The memo also called on Taiwan to increase its defense spending. The document, known as the “Interim National Defense Strategic Guidance,” was distributed this month and detailed the national defense plans of US President Donald Trump’s administration, an article in the Washington Post said on Saturday. It outlines how the US can prepare for a potential war with China and defend itself from threats in the “near abroad,” including Greenland and the Panama
The High Prosecutors’ Office yesterday withdrew an appeal against the acquittal of a former bank manager 22 years after his death, marking Taiwan’s first instance of prosecutors rendering posthumous justice to a wrongfully convicted defendant. Chu Ching-en (諸慶恩) — formerly a manager at the Taipei branch of BNP Paribas — was in 1999 accused by Weng Mao-chung (翁茂鍾), then-president of Chia Her Industrial Co, of forging a request for a fixed deposit of US$10 million by I-Hwa Industrial Co, a subsidiary of Chia Her, which was used as collateral. Chu was ruled not guilty in the first trial, but was found guilty
A wild live dugong was found in Taiwan for the first time in 88 years, after it was accidentally caught by a fisher’s net on Tuesday in Yilan County’s Fenniaolin (粉鳥林). This is the first sighting of the species in Taiwan since 1937, having already been considered “extinct” in the country and considered as “vulnerable” by the International Union for Conservation of Nature. A fisher surnamed Chen (陳) went to Fenniaolin to collect the fish in his netting, but instead caught a 3m long, 500kg dugong. The fisher released the animal back into the wild, not realizing it was an endangered species at
DEADLOCK: As the commission is unable to forum a quorum to review license renewal applications, the channel operators are not at fault and can air past their license date The National Communications Commission (NCC) yesterday said that the Public Television Service (PTS) and 36 other television and radio broadcasters could continue airing, despite the commission’s inability to meet a quorum to review their license renewal applications. The licenses of PTS and the other channels are set to expire between this month and June. The National Communications Commission Organization Act (國家通訊傳播委員會組織法) stipulates that the commission must meet the mandated quorum of four to hold a valid meeting. The seven-member commission currently has only three commissioners. “We have informed the channel operators of the progress we have made in reviewing their license renewal applications, and
RSS