The likelihood of President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) being re-elected in 2012 dropped to a new low yesterday after his party lost three seats in legislative by-elections on Saturday, the Center for Prediction Market at National Chengchi University said.
On a scale from NT$0 to NT$100, bidders felt the probability of Ma winning re-election was NT$36.80.
Prediction markets are speculative exchanges, with the value of an asset meant to reflect the likelihood of a future event. Members can tender virtual bids on the events, with the bidding price meant to reflect probability.
Since the center opened trading on Ma’s re-election chances on April 11 last year, prices have largely hovered around NT$60, but rose to NT$70 in mid-June before falling to NT$51.80 in August after Typhoon Morakot lashed Taiwan, killing hundreds.
Since Ma took over as Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) chairman in October, the number has steadily declined from NT$58 on Nov. 18 to NT$50.80 on Dec. 5, the center said.
The figure fell below NT$50 after the “three-in-one” local elections in early December and hit NT$45.30 on Dec. 25 after the cross-strait talks between Straits Exchange Foundation Chairman Chiang Pin-kung (江丙坤) and Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Strait Chairman Chen Yunlin (陳雲林) on Dec. 22.
The center predicted on Dec. 30 that the KMT would lose all three seats in Saturday’s by-elections in Taoyuan, Taichung and Taitung counties.
The center also correctly predicted that the KMT would lose three seats in the “three-in-one” local elections on Dec. 5, while the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) would gain one.
The KMT clinched 12 of the 17 counties and cities in the elections for city mayor and county commissioner, garnering 47.88 percent of the total votes, a drop of 2 percent from the 2005 elections. The DPP secured four areas, receiving 45.32 percent of the total ballots, a 7.2 percent increase.
The center, opened in 2006, makes predictions on various issues, including politics, economy, cross-strait affairs, international affairs, social affairs, sports and entertainment. It has attracted bidders from Taiwan and 100 other countries, including China and the US.
As of Nov. 20, the center had issued 11,553 contracts, accumulating more than 124 million trading entries. The center said the hottest issues have included the 2006 mayoral elections in Kaohsiung and Taipei, the 2008 legislative and presidential elections and last month’s “three-in-one” local elections.
Meanwhile, two media outlets seen as “pan-blue” said yesterday that Ma could face a humiliating defeat in the 2012 presidential election.
The Chinese-language China Times said the results were “another warning to Ma and his party.”
“If the Ma administration is unable to display its capability to rule the country and win back the trust of people ... the ruling party could plunge into difficulties in the coming elections and even the 2012 presidential polls,” the newspaper said in an editorial.
The Chinese-language United Daily News said “the outcome may be another sign of ‘domino effect’ in the more decisive elections this year,” referring to elections in five municipalities later this year and the legislative polls next year.
Ma’s popularity fell to about 33 percent last month, compared with 52 percent in May last year, a survey released by the United Daily News said.
Various opinion polls have indicated that a large segment of Taiwanese are critical of Ma’s crisis management skills, including the government’s handling of the beef import dispute with the US.
ADDITIONAL REPORTING BY AFP
Death row inmate Huang Lin-kai (黃麟凱), who was convicted for the double murder of his former girlfriend and her mother, is to be executed at the Taipei Detention Center tonight, the Ministry of Justice announced. Huang, who was a military conscript at the time, was convicted for the rape and murder of his ex-girlfriend, surnamed Wang (王), and the murder of her mother, after breaking into their home on Oct. 1, 2013. Prosecutors cited anger over the breakup and a dispute about money as the motives behind the double homicide. This is the first time that Minister of Justice Cheng Ming-chien (鄭銘謙) has
Ferry operators are planning to provide a total of 1,429 journeys between Taiwan proper and its offshore islands to meet increased travel demand during the upcoming Lunar New Year holiday, the Maritime and Port Bureau said yesterday. The available number of ferry journeys on eight routes from Saturday next week to Feb. 2 is expected to meet a maximum transport capacity of 289,414 passengers, the bureau said in a news release. Meanwhile, a total of 396 journeys on the "small three links," which are direct ferries connecting Taiwan's Kinmen and Lienchiang counties with China's Fujian Province, are also being planned to accommodate
BITTERLY COLD: The inauguration ceremony for US president-elect Donald Trump has been moved indoors due to cold weather, with the new venue lacking capacity A delegation of cross-party lawmakers from Taiwan, led by Legislative Speaker Han Kuo-yu (韓國瑜), for the inauguration of US president-elect Donald Trump, would not be able to attend the ceremony, as it is being moved indoors due to forecasts of intense cold weather in Washington tomorrow. The inauguration ceremony for Trump and US vice president-elect JD Vance is to be held inside the Capitol Rotunda, which has a capacity of about 2,000 people. A person familiar with the issue yesterday said although the outdoor inauguration ceremony has been relocated, Taiwan’s legislative delegation has decided to head off to Washington as scheduled. The delegation
TRANSPORT CONVENIENCE: The new ticket gates would accept a variety of mobile payment methods, and buses would be installed with QR code readers for ease of use New ticketing gates for the Taipei metro system are expected to begin service in October, allowing users to swipe with cellphones and select credit cards partnered with Taipei Rapid Transit Corp (TRTC), the company said on Tuesday. TRTC said its gates in use are experiencing difficulty due to their age, as they were first installed in 2007. Maintenance is increasingly expensive and challenging as the manufacturing of components is halted or becoming harder to find, the company said. Currently, the gates only accept EasyCard, iPass and electronic icash tickets, or one-time-use tickets purchased at kiosks, the company said. Since 2023, the company said it
RSS