The likelihood of President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) being re-elected in 2012 dropped to a new low yesterday after his party lost three seats in legislative by-elections on Saturday, the Center for Prediction Market at National Chengchi University said.
On a scale from NT$0 to NT$100, bidders felt the probability of Ma winning re-election was NT$36.80.
Prediction markets are speculative exchanges, with the value of an asset meant to reflect the likelihood of a future event. Members can tender virtual bids on the events, with the bidding price meant to reflect probability.
Since the center opened trading on Ma’s re-election chances on April 11 last year, prices have largely hovered around NT$60, but rose to NT$70 in mid-June before falling to NT$51.80 in August after Typhoon Morakot lashed Taiwan, killing hundreds.
Since Ma took over as Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) chairman in October, the number has steadily declined from NT$58 on Nov. 18 to NT$50.80 on Dec. 5, the center said.
The figure fell below NT$50 after the “three-in-one” local elections in early December and hit NT$45.30 on Dec. 25 after the cross-strait talks between Straits Exchange Foundation Chairman Chiang Pin-kung (江丙坤) and Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Strait Chairman Chen Yunlin (陳雲林) on Dec. 22.
The center predicted on Dec. 30 that the KMT would lose all three seats in Saturday’s by-elections in Taoyuan, Taichung and Taitung counties.
The center also correctly predicted that the KMT would lose three seats in the “three-in-one” local elections on Dec. 5, while the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) would gain one.
The KMT clinched 12 of the 17 counties and cities in the elections for city mayor and county commissioner, garnering 47.88 percent of the total votes, a drop of 2 percent from the 2005 elections. The DPP secured four areas, receiving 45.32 percent of the total ballots, a 7.2 percent increase.
The center, opened in 2006, makes predictions on various issues, including politics, economy, cross-strait affairs, international affairs, social affairs, sports and entertainment. It has attracted bidders from Taiwan and 100 other countries, including China and the US.
As of Nov. 20, the center had issued 11,553 contracts, accumulating more than 124 million trading entries. The center said the hottest issues have included the 2006 mayoral elections in Kaohsiung and Taipei, the 2008 legislative and presidential elections and last month’s “three-in-one” local elections.
Meanwhile, two media outlets seen as “pan-blue” said yesterday that Ma could face a humiliating defeat in the 2012 presidential election.
The Chinese-language China Times said the results were “another warning to Ma and his party.”
“If the Ma administration is unable to display its capability to rule the country and win back the trust of people ... the ruling party could plunge into difficulties in the coming elections and even the 2012 presidential polls,” the newspaper said in an editorial.
The Chinese-language United Daily News said “the outcome may be another sign of ‘domino effect’ in the more decisive elections this year,” referring to elections in five municipalities later this year and the legislative polls next year.
Ma’s popularity fell to about 33 percent last month, compared with 52 percent in May last year, a survey released by the United Daily News said.
Various opinion polls have indicated that a large segment of Taiwanese are critical of Ma’s crisis management skills, including the government’s handling of the beef import dispute with the US.
ADDITIONAL REPORTING BY AFP
‘DENIAL DEFENSE’: The US would increase its military presence with uncrewed ships, and submarines, while boosting defense in the Indo-Pacific, a Pete Hegseth memo said The US is reorienting its military strategy to focus primarily on deterring a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan, a memo signed by US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth showed. The memo also called on Taiwan to increase its defense spending. The document, known as the “Interim National Defense Strategic Guidance,” was distributed this month and detailed the national defense plans of US President Donald Trump’s administration, an article in the Washington Post said on Saturday. It outlines how the US can prepare for a potential war with China and defend itself from threats in the “near abroad,” including Greenland and the Panama
A wild live dugong was found in Taiwan for the first time in 88 years, after it was accidentally caught by a fisher’s net on Tuesday in Yilan County’s Fenniaolin (粉鳥林). This is the first sighting of the species in Taiwan since 1937, having already been considered “extinct” in the country and considered as “vulnerable” by the International Union for Conservation of Nature. A fisher surnamed Chen (陳) went to Fenniaolin to collect the fish in his netting, but instead caught a 3m long, 500kg dugong. The fisher released the animal back into the wild, not realizing it was an endangered species at
The High Prosecutors’ Office yesterday withdrew an appeal against the acquittal of a former bank manager 22 years after his death, marking Taiwan’s first instance of prosecutors rendering posthumous justice to a wrongfully convicted defendant. Chu Ching-en (諸慶恩) — formerly a manager at the Taipei branch of BNP Paribas — was in 1999 accused by Weng Mao-chung (翁茂鍾), then-president of Chia Her Industrial Co, of forging a request for a fixed deposit of US$10 million by I-Hwa Industrial Co, a subsidiary of Chia Her, which was used as collateral. Chu was ruled not guilty in the first trial, but was found guilty
DEADLOCK: As the commission is unable to forum a quorum to review license renewal applications, the channel operators are not at fault and can air past their license date The National Communications Commission (NCC) yesterday said that the Public Television Service (PTS) and 36 other television and radio broadcasters could continue airing, despite the commission’s inability to meet a quorum to review their license renewal applications. The licenses of PTS and the other channels are set to expire between this month and June. The National Communications Commission Organization Act (國家通訊傳播委員會組織法) stipulates that the commission must meet the mandated quorum of four to hold a valid meeting. The seven-member commission currently has only three commissioners. “We have informed the channel operators of the progress we have made in reviewing their license renewal applications, and
RSS