The likelihood of President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) being re-elected in 2012 dropped to a new low yesterday after his party lost three seats in legislative by-elections on Saturday, the Center for Prediction Market at National Chengchi University said.
On a scale from NT$0 to NT$100, bidders felt the probability of Ma winning re-election was NT$36.80.
Prediction markets are speculative exchanges, with the value of an asset meant to reflect the likelihood of a future event. Members can tender virtual bids on the events, with the bidding price meant to reflect probability.
Since the center opened trading on Ma’s re-election chances on April 11 last year, prices have largely hovered around NT$60, but rose to NT$70 in mid-June before falling to NT$51.80 in August after Typhoon Morakot lashed Taiwan, killing hundreds.
Since Ma took over as Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) chairman in October, the number has steadily declined from NT$58 on Nov. 18 to NT$50.80 on Dec. 5, the center said.
The figure fell below NT$50 after the “three-in-one” local elections in early December and hit NT$45.30 on Dec. 25 after the cross-strait talks between Straits Exchange Foundation Chairman Chiang Pin-kung (江丙坤) and Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Strait Chairman Chen Yunlin (陳雲林) on Dec. 22.
The center predicted on Dec. 30 that the KMT would lose all three seats in Saturday’s by-elections in Taoyuan, Taichung and Taitung counties.
The center also correctly predicted that the KMT would lose three seats in the “three-in-one” local elections on Dec. 5, while the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) would gain one.
The KMT clinched 12 of the 17 counties and cities in the elections for city mayor and county commissioner, garnering 47.88 percent of the total votes, a drop of 2 percent from the 2005 elections. The DPP secured four areas, receiving 45.32 percent of the total ballots, a 7.2 percent increase.
The center, opened in 2006, makes predictions on various issues, including politics, economy, cross-strait affairs, international affairs, social affairs, sports and entertainment. It has attracted bidders from Taiwan and 100 other countries, including China and the US.
As of Nov. 20, the center had issued 11,553 contracts, accumulating more than 124 million trading entries. The center said the hottest issues have included the 2006 mayoral elections in Kaohsiung and Taipei, the 2008 legislative and presidential elections and last month’s “three-in-one” local elections.
Meanwhile, two media outlets seen as “pan-blue” said yesterday that Ma could face a humiliating defeat in the 2012 presidential election.
The Chinese-language China Times said the results were “another warning to Ma and his party.”
“If the Ma administration is unable to display its capability to rule the country and win back the trust of people ... the ruling party could plunge into difficulties in the coming elections and even the 2012 presidential polls,” the newspaper said in an editorial.
The Chinese-language United Daily News said “the outcome may be another sign of ‘domino effect’ in the more decisive elections this year,” referring to elections in five municipalities later this year and the legislative polls next year.
Ma’s popularity fell to about 33 percent last month, compared with 52 percent in May last year, a survey released by the United Daily News said.
Various opinion polls have indicated that a large segment of Taiwanese are critical of Ma’s crisis management skills, including the government’s handling of the beef import dispute with the US.
ADDITIONAL REPORTING BY AFP
Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Chairman Eric Chu (朱立倫), spokeswoman Yang Chih-yu (楊智伃) and Legislator Hsieh Lung-chieh (謝龍介) would be summoned by police for questioning for leading an illegal assembly on Thursday evening last week, Minister of the Interior Liu Shyh-fang (劉世芳) said today. The three KMT officials led an assembly outside the Taipei City Prosecutors’ Office, a restricted area where public assembly is not allowed, protesting the questioning of several KMT staff and searches of KMT headquarters and offices in a recall petition forgery case. Chu, Yang and Hsieh are all suspected of contravening the Assembly and Parade Act (集會遊行法) by holding
PRAISE: Japanese visitor Takashi Kubota said the Taiwanese temple architecture images showcased in the AI Art Gallery were the most impressive displays he saw Taiwan does not have an official pavilion at the World Expo in Osaka, Japan, because of its diplomatic predicament, but the government-backed Tech World pavilion is drawing interest with its unique recreations of works by Taiwanese artists. The pavilion features an artificial intelligence (AI)-based art gallery showcasing works of famous Taiwanese artists from the Japanese colonial period using innovative technologies. Among its main simulated displays are Eastern gouache paintings by Chen Chin (陳進), Lin Yu-shan (林玉山) and Kuo Hsueh-hu (郭雪湖), who were the three young Taiwanese painters selected for the East Asian Painting exhibition in 1927. Gouache is a water-based
Taiwan would welcome the return of Honduras as a diplomatic ally if its next president decides to make such a move, Minister of Foreign Affairs Lin Chia-lung (林佳龍) said yesterday. “Of course, we would welcome Honduras if they want to restore diplomatic ties with Taiwan after their elections,” Lin said at a meeting of the legislature’s Foreign Affairs and National Defense Committee, when asked to comment on statements made by two of the three Honduran presidential candidates during the presidential campaign in the Central American country. Taiwan is paying close attention to the region as a whole in the wake of a
OFF-TARGET: More than 30,000 participants were expected to take part in the Games next month, but only 6,550 foreign and 19,400 Taiwanese athletes have registered Taipei city councilors yesterday blasted the organizers of next month’s World Masters Games over sudden timetable and venue changes, which they said have caused thousands of participants to back out of the international sporting event, among other organizational issues. They also cited visa delays and political interference by China as reasons many foreign athletes are requesting refunds for the event, to be held from May 17 to 30. Jointly organized by the Taipei and New Taipei City governments, the games have been rocked by numerous controversies since preparations began in 2020. Taipei City Councilor Lin Yen-feng (林延鳳) said yesterday that new measures by
RSS