A new report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington says that it is “inevitable” that sooner rather than later China will press for concessions from Taiwan on the political front.
It adds: “They will want to get a return on the concessions the PRC [People’s Republic of China] has made on the economic and diplomatic fronts. After all, Beijing’s ultimate goal is reunification, not the status quo.”
Entitled Cross-Strait Prospects: Testing US Commitment, the report comes from the Freeman Chair in China Studies at the CSIS.
The report says that the longer the status quo is maintained, the more it reinforces Taiwan’s de facto independence and the right of the people of Taiwan to decide their political future.
“This is certainly not something most on the mainland are prepared to accept at this time,” the report says.
It adds that the pressure to move toward political talks — which will be equated to unification talks, since the PRC will insist on the “one China” premise — will build up soon.
Although Beijing may not yet be willing to publicly acknowledge it, the report says, the “simple fact” is that virtually no one in Taiwan today seeks unification with China.
It says: “No one looks forward to living under PRC rule, whether direct or indirect. It is doubtful that the PRC can offer enough economic incentives to change these sentiments under present circumstances, even among those supporting current cross-strait policies, much less among those opposed to them. And given the nature of Taiwan’s political balance at this time, the [Chinese Nationalist Party] KMT will find it very difficult to start political talks without risking its hold on power.”
“Hence, as some on the mainland correctly fear, the current strategy is not likely to move Taiwan much closer to reunification,” it said.
Coming just as US President Barack Obama is expected to announce new arms sales to Taiwan — perhaps as soon as next week — the report says China has continued to build up its military forces against Taiwan and, more precisely, against the US “if we should seek to intervene in any future cross-strait conflict.”
It says: “From Beijing’s perspective, military force is still required to deter any future attempt to seek Taiwan independence, especially if the KMT administration should eventually be voted out of office. Beyond this, however, the PRC may eventually be tempted to use its increasing military preponderance not just to prevent independence but to press the issue of reunification. By continuing to build up its ‘area denial’ capability, Beijing is significantly raising the cost of intervention for the United States.”
At some point, the report says, Beijing may perceive its military advantage to be so overwhelming that it cannot conceive of the US actually being willing to intervene militarily to prevent unification.
This will be the point when China “is likely to begin applying pressure on Taiwan to start political talks.”
To further dissuade the US against intervention, Beijing will characterize its pressure on Taiwan as “peaceful” in nature and indicate that it does not intend to use force but simply wants Taiwan to agree to start talks.
The report asks two telling questions. First, how strong will the US commitment be to maintain its support for the status quo under the Taiwan Relations Act? And second, will the US continue to support Taiwan in the face of pressures from Beijing?
No matter what any US administration says publicly or privately, it would be difficult for anyone to believe that changes on the ground have not affected, or will not affect, the nature and extent of the US commitment, especially if little or nothing is done to address the increasing military imbalance or to show continued US commitment in other substantive ways, the report says.
It closes: “Beijing and Taiwan will both be watching closely for signs of whether the US commitment has weakened or not. They will be looking at actions, not words.”
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