International panelists yesterday urged a more robust Taiwanese defensive capability but differed greatly on what strategy would ensure the nation’s diplomatic future. While some said Taiwan should give up on its bid for formal recognition, others panned China’s continual threat of force as the main cause of cross-strait tension.
The remarks were made at a roundtable held in Taipei on changes in the cross-strait situation and challenges to the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA).
Michael Pillsbury, a consultant to the US Department of Defense, cited a recent Pentagon report that said the balance in the Taiwan Strait was tilting toward China and criticized the “resistance” that he saw in Taiwanese military circles toward establishing more contacts with their US counterparts.
“Too many alarms have been sounded without the hardening of your defenses,” he said, while urging more civilian participation, such as think tanks, in scrutinizing the national military in greater detail.
If cross-strait tension were ever to rise again, he said, Taiwan would wish it had strengthened its defenses.
OPTIMAL STRATEGY
Stanford University professor Stephen Krasner said the optimal strategy for Taiwan would be to enhance its defensive credibility and capability and at the same time give up its formal alliances with 23 allies and efforts for more de jure recognition.
“The kind of ambiguity that has existed over the last several years of what exactly Taiwan was committed to doing ought to be eliminated. Taiwan ought to commit itself to the most robust defense relations that it can establish with the US,” he said.
By unilaterally severing all diplomatic ties and forgoing efforts toward recognition, he said, Taiwan would reduce anxiety on both sides of the Strait by sending a clear signal to Beijing that it was not aspiring for independence but that it was adamantly opposed to being absorbed by China.
One of the speakers, John Tkacik, formerly of the Heritage Foundation, said the panelists had all ignored the elephant in the room, which is that despite the current cross-strait rapprochement, China continues to threaten war with Taiwan and has not backed down on its intention of taking Taiwan by force.
China’s persistent threat, he said, was not a peaceful resolution to cross-strait tensions and showed that Taiwan must beef up its own defensive capabilities.
AIRSPACE
Citing the same Pentagon report, he said Taiwan had already lost its airspace defensive advantage as of 2002 and panned Washington for failing to honor its commitment to Taiwan’s security by persistently refusing to sell the F-16 fighter jets that Taiwan has requested.
Dubbing the historical diplomatic tug of war between Taiwan and China a “losing game” for Taipei, Denny Roy, a senior fellow at the East-West Center, called on Taiwanese authorities to “change the game” with China by focusing the country’s resources on cementing its quasi-diplomatic relationships, such as the ones that Taiwan maintains with the US and Japan, instead of trying to lure new allies.
While the world welcomes the current cross-strait detente, new tensions have emerged, he said, citing the discontent among the Taiwanese public on the handling of ties with Beijing by President Ma Ying-jeou’s (馬英九) administration and the asymmetric concessions offered by both sides.
“Taiwan has given up a lot, the PRC has given up little,” he said, saying a “peace with justice” outcome for Taiwan was uncertain.
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