The world political order will see dramatic changes within 15 years if China’s economic and military power surpasses that of the US, a diplomacy professor told a cross-strait forum yesterday.
Lai Yueh-tchienn (賴岳謙) of National Chengchi University said time will be on Beijing’s side if its economic growth continues and there is no war in the Taiwan Strait.
Under such circumstances, Lai estimated China’s economic clout would catch up with the US in 15 years.
While the US pours substantial military resources into guarding the Pacific Ocean and the Atlantic, China only has the Pacific to worry about and can focus on building a strong navy.
If China’s military, political and economic sway continues to grow, the political order will see drastic changes and the US and EU must face the fact that Beijing wants to play a more decisive role in the international community, he said.
Lai made the remarks at a forum organized by the Taiwan New Century Foundation and Nanhua University’s Center for Peace and Strategic Studies in Taipei.
The forum discussed the impact of Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Strait Chairman Chen Yunlin’s (陳雲林) visit and the concept of “peaceful development” in the Taiwan Strait.
Lai said China’s strategy of “peaceful development” was to create a peaceful and stable environment for itself to aid its growth.
China hopes this strategy will deter outside forces while it develops military power sufficient to maintain its economic and political order in the case of war.
Lai said that while China hoped to reach this goal by 2030, it could accomplish it as early as 2020.
China’s recent acknowledgment that it was building aircraft carriers and developing guided missiles with a range of 400km were two clear manifestations of its military ambition, he said.
George Liu (劉志聰), a researcher at the Center for Peace and Strategic Studies, said there would be no “peaceful development” in the Strait unless Taiwan surrendered.
Liu said China would continue its military buildup if Taiwan did not accept unification.
Shih Cheng-feng (施正鋒), a political commentator, said depending on China’s economy was risky.
Investing in China, he said, was like “a blood transfusion with the risk of being infected with HIV.”
Shih criticized the meeting between Chen and President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九).
He also warned against signing a peace agreement with Beijing, citing Tibet’s experiences with state violence despite the peace treaty signed in the 1950s after its occupation.
Chang Wu-ueh (張五岳), director of the Graduate Institute of China Studies at Tamkang University, urged representatives of the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and Democratic Progressive Party to negotiate.
Chang also called on the public to welcome any cross-strait negotiations or dialogue that could help increase the nation’s international space and economic development as well as deepen its democracy and respect for human rights.
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