The world political order will see dramatic changes within 15 years if China’s economic and military power surpasses that of the US, a diplomacy professor told a cross-strait forum yesterday.
Lai Yueh-tchienn (賴岳謙) of National Chengchi University said time will be on Beijing’s side if its economic growth continues and there is no war in the Taiwan Strait.
Under such circumstances, Lai estimated China’s economic clout would catch up with the US in 15 years.
While the US pours substantial military resources into guarding the Pacific Ocean and the Atlantic, China only has the Pacific to worry about and can focus on building a strong navy.
If China’s military, political and economic sway continues to grow, the political order will see drastic changes and the US and EU must face the fact that Beijing wants to play a more decisive role in the international community, he said.
Lai made the remarks at a forum organized by the Taiwan New Century Foundation and Nanhua University’s Center for Peace and Strategic Studies in Taipei.
The forum discussed the impact of Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Strait Chairman Chen Yunlin’s (陳雲林) visit and the concept of “peaceful development” in the Taiwan Strait.
Lai said China’s strategy of “peaceful development” was to create a peaceful and stable environment for itself to aid its growth.
China hopes this strategy will deter outside forces while it develops military power sufficient to maintain its economic and political order in the case of war.
Lai said that while China hoped to reach this goal by 2030, it could accomplish it as early as 2020.
China’s recent acknowledgment that it was building aircraft carriers and developing guided missiles with a range of 400km were two clear manifestations of its military ambition, he said.
George Liu (劉志聰), a researcher at the Center for Peace and Strategic Studies, said there would be no “peaceful development” in the Strait unless Taiwan surrendered.
Liu said China would continue its military buildup if Taiwan did not accept unification.
Shih Cheng-feng (施正鋒), a political commentator, said depending on China’s economy was risky.
Investing in China, he said, was like “a blood transfusion with the risk of being infected with HIV.”
Shih criticized the meeting between Chen and President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九).
He also warned against signing a peace agreement with Beijing, citing Tibet’s experiences with state violence despite the peace treaty signed in the 1950s after its occupation.
Chang Wu-ueh (張五岳), director of the Graduate Institute of China Studies at Tamkang University, urged representatives of the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and Democratic Progressive Party to negotiate.
Chang also called on the public to welcome any cross-strait negotiations or dialogue that could help increase the nation’s international space and economic development as well as deepen its democracy and respect for human rights.
‘DENIAL DEFENSE’: The US would increase its military presence with uncrewed ships, and submarines, while boosting defense in the Indo-Pacific, a Pete Hegseth memo said The US is reorienting its military strategy to focus primarily on deterring a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan, a memo signed by US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth showed. The memo also called on Taiwan to increase its defense spending. The document, known as the “Interim National Defense Strategic Guidance,” was distributed this month and detailed the national defense plans of US President Donald Trump’s administration, an article in the Washington Post said on Saturday. It outlines how the US can prepare for a potential war with China and defend itself from threats in the “near abroad,” including Greenland and the Panama
A wild live dugong was found in Taiwan for the first time in 88 years, after it was accidentally caught by a fisher’s net on Tuesday in Yilan County’s Fenniaolin (粉鳥林). This is the first sighting of the species in Taiwan since 1937, having already been considered “extinct” in the country and considered as “vulnerable” by the International Union for Conservation of Nature. A fisher surnamed Chen (陳) went to Fenniaolin to collect the fish in his netting, but instead caught a 3m long, 500kg dugong. The fisher released the animal back into the wild, not realizing it was an endangered species at
The High Prosecutors’ Office yesterday withdrew an appeal against the acquittal of a former bank manager 22 years after his death, marking Taiwan’s first instance of prosecutors rendering posthumous justice to a wrongfully convicted defendant. Chu Ching-en (諸慶恩) — formerly a manager at the Taipei branch of BNP Paribas — was in 1999 accused by Weng Mao-chung (翁茂鍾), then-president of Chia Her Industrial Co, of forging a request for a fixed deposit of US$10 million by I-Hwa Industrial Co, a subsidiary of Chia Her, which was used as collateral. Chu was ruled not guilty in the first trial, but was found guilty
DEADLOCK: As the commission is unable to forum a quorum to review license renewal applications, the channel operators are not at fault and can air past their license date The National Communications Commission (NCC) yesterday said that the Public Television Service (PTS) and 36 other television and radio broadcasters could continue airing, despite the commission’s inability to meet a quorum to review their license renewal applications. The licenses of PTS and the other channels are set to expire between this month and June. The National Communications Commission Organization Act (國家通訊傳播委員會組織法) stipulates that the commission must meet the mandated quorum of four to hold a valid meeting. The seven-member commission currently has only three commissioners. “We have informed the channel operators of the progress we have made in reviewing their license renewal applications, and
RSS