Academics were divided yesterday over the effectiveness of President Ma Ying-jeou’s (馬英九) “diplomatic truce” policy, which calls for a halt to China and Taiwan’s attempts to woo each other’s allies, but agreed that more time is needed to gauge China’s response to the strategy.
Control Yuan member Ger Yeong-kuang (葛永光), who is leading an investigation into the impact of the policy on the nation’s international space, organized a hearing with several academics to discuss the issue.
Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Secretary-General Wu Den-yih (吳敦義) said in a recent wire agency interview that China had agreed to the truce and it could end the checkbook diplomacy tug-of-war over allies.
Wu said that China’s decision to tell one country in Latin America seeking to switch ties from Taipei to Beijing to hold off was an example of the policy’s success.
Presidential Office spokesman Wang Yu-chi (王郁琦) echoed Wu’s remarks on Tuesday in an interview with The Associated Press.
“The fact that we have been able to keep our diplomatic allies seems to be a positive response from China,” Wang said.
Officials in Asuncion were not available for comment on whether Beijing had intervened with Paraguayan President Fernando Armindo Lugo Mendez to maintain relations with Taiwan.
In comments to a local TV station on Monday, Lugo said, “It would be fair to recognize the good relations Taiwan has always had with Paraguay.”
But analysts yesterday were more cautious.
Ger said how China responds to Taiwan’s bid to participate in the WHO next year and whether Ma would be allowed to attend the APEC summit in Singapore next year rather than sending a special envoy to represent him at the event could serve as indicators of the success or failure of the policy.
Saying that he had sounded Singaporean authorities out about the possibility of Ma’s attendance at the summit, Ger said that Ma should be present at the meeting.
“Singapore didn’t rule out the possibility, but it wished that both sides of the Taiwan Strait could work this out through negotiation,” Ger said.
“The diplomatic truce will benefit Taiwan if it works out. However, it is not wishful thinking, it depends on how China reacts,” he said.
Edward Chen (陳一新), a professor at the Graduate Institute of American Studies at Tamkang University, agreed with Wu, saying that China had shown a favorable attitude to the truce.
“After Ma assumed office in May, there were five or six countries, at least in Central and South America alone, such as Paraguay, Haiti, Nicaragua ... intending to establish ties with China, but they were all rejected by Beijing,” Chen said.
The diplomatic truce could help Taiwan gain ground in the international community, but time is needed to observe future developments, Chen said.
Lin Cheng-yi (林正義), a researcher at the Institute of European and American Studies at Academia Sinica, said it was premature to assess the effectiveness of the policy, which he described as “innovative yet controversial.”
“The diplomatic truce policy could be called a success if the number of Taiwan’s diplomatic allies remains at 23 over the next three or four years,” Lin said.
ADDITIONAL REPORTING BY AP
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