The failure of both UN membership referendums could block Taiwan's attempt to participate in international organizations, but may also present an opportunity to reform the referendum system, political observers said.
"The international community may misinterpret what the failure of both referendums means," said Herman Chiang (江岷欽), a public administration professor at Taipei University. "We may think the referendums are not important, but it may have an impact on our future attempts to join international organizations."
On top of serving as a record of what the public thinks on certain subjects, "referendums are used in Taiwan as a tool for political mobilization -- the Democratic Progressive Party [DPP] used its referendum to boost support, while the Chinese Nationalist Party [KMT] used theirs as a counter-mechanism," he said.
PHOTO: YANG MEI-HUNG, TAIPEI TIMES
Lacking a close understanding of the political and social context in the nation, "Western countries may misunderstand the mainstream public opinion in Taiwan," Chiang said.
Tseng Chien-yuan (
"Since even the more conservative option of the two referendum prepositions -- the KMT's `return to the UN' -- did not pass, it will be a problem for the new government to tell the international community what the Taiwanese people really want."
One challenge for the new president will therefore be to explain to the world the real meaning behind the failure of the referendums, Tseng said.
"We have to follow closely how [KMT president elect] Ma Ying-jeou [馬英九] explains to the international community that we long for participation in global affairs," Chiang said.
On the other hand, National Taiwan University political science professor Ger Yeong-kuang (
"[The failure of referendums] will neither have an impact on domestic politics, nor on our participation in international affairs," Ger said.
"For domestic politics, nothing happened when the referendums failed last time," he said. "As for our participating in international organizations, we wouldn't have been accepted right away if the referendums passed and we will continue our efforts even though the referendums fail."
What is of greater importance, Ger said, is for the new president to find a way to make a breakthrough in cross-strait and international relations.
Another concern for observers were potential reforms to the referendum system.
"It would mean that the referendum system is stable if at least one of the referendums passes," Tseng said ahead of the vote.
The outcome, however, went the other way.
"We surely need a reform in the system -- the referendum thresholds may need to be lowered so that the power to make a referendum initiative can really be given back to the people," Chiang said.
"The referendum should no longer be a tool for political mobilization. It's an insult to the system," he said.
While also optimistic about reforms, Tseng said he was worried about the future direction they would take.
"With the KMT dominance [in legislature], the reform may go in the direction of banning the grouping of referendums with elections," he said.
If such a reform occured, it would hurt the referendum system and would be a step backward for democracy, he said.
Eric Suy-Verburg, former under-secretary for the UN's Office of Legal Affairs, said that the DPP referendum "for the time being, is unrealistic."
"In previous UN general assemblies, there were always the same reactions [to reject Taiwan's bid] because of obstruction from the People's Republic of China," he said.
The KMT version, he said, was a bit more "balanced" because it does not call for the rigidity of only applying for full UN membership under a particular name, unlike the one pitched by the DPP.
However, the seasoned politician from Beligum said "there is never a `never' in international politics" and that "things may change."
"Taiwan should find new ways, new avenues and new openings [in its UN bids]. And it should make more friends that support its position. Be patient," he said.
Bruno Kaufmann, president of the Germany-based Initiative and Referendum Institute Europe, questioned if the referendum, as a mechanism for people to express their will, is being fully and correctly used by Taiwanese.
During his tour of polling booths yesterday, Kaufmann noticed that some people were subtly discouraging people from casting referendum ballots by ushering the voters straight to the polling booth, bypassing the table where they could pick up the referendum ballots.
He lamented that neither referendum had succeeded because it only "educates the people not to participate and it rewards the non-participants."
People will become disinterested and jaded about referendums as a mechanism if they persistently see that their affirmative votes do not count, he said.
Eva Tseng (鄭心瑜), a member of the Washington-based lobbist group Formosa Association for Public Affairs' youth group, said that the recent US denounciations of the referendums may have been a major factor in people's apathy toward them.
"It is unfair that the US had a say in the democratic process of another nation," she said.
‘DENIAL DEFENSE’: The US would increase its military presence with uncrewed ships, and submarines, while boosting defense in the Indo-Pacific, a Pete Hegseth memo said The US is reorienting its military strategy to focus primarily on deterring a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan, a memo signed by US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth showed. The memo also called on Taiwan to increase its defense spending. The document, known as the “Interim National Defense Strategic Guidance,” was distributed this month and detailed the national defense plans of US President Donald Trump’s administration, an article in the Washington Post said on Saturday. It outlines how the US can prepare for a potential war with China and defend itself from threats in the “near abroad,” including Greenland and the Panama
The High Prosecutors’ Office yesterday withdrew an appeal against the acquittal of a former bank manager 22 years after his death, marking Taiwan’s first instance of prosecutors rendering posthumous justice to a wrongfully convicted defendant. Chu Ching-en (諸慶恩) — formerly a manager at the Taipei branch of BNP Paribas — was in 1999 accused by Weng Mao-chung (翁茂鍾), then-president of Chia Her Industrial Co, of forging a request for a fixed deposit of US$10 million by I-Hwa Industrial Co, a subsidiary of Chia Her, which was used as collateral. Chu was ruled not guilty in the first trial, but was found guilty
A wild live dugong was found in Taiwan for the first time in 88 years, after it was accidentally caught by a fisher’s net on Tuesday in Yilan County’s Fenniaolin (粉鳥林). This is the first sighting of the species in Taiwan since 1937, having already been considered “extinct” in the country and considered as “vulnerable” by the International Union for Conservation of Nature. A fisher surnamed Chen (陳) went to Fenniaolin to collect the fish in his netting, but instead caught a 3m long, 500kg dugong. The fisher released the animal back into the wild, not realizing it was an endangered species at
DEADLOCK: As the commission is unable to forum a quorum to review license renewal applications, the channel operators are not at fault and can air past their license date The National Communications Commission (NCC) yesterday said that the Public Television Service (PTS) and 36 other television and radio broadcasters could continue airing, despite the commission’s inability to meet a quorum to review their license renewal applications. The licenses of PTS and the other channels are set to expire between this month and June. The National Communications Commission Organization Act (國家通訊傳播委員會組織法) stipulates that the commission must meet the mandated quorum of four to hold a valid meeting. The seven-member commission currently has only three commissioners. “We have informed the channel operators of the progress we have made in reviewing their license renewal applications, and
RSS